Friday, March 11, 2011


Below video is Dabama on a live video, hope it works later on.
One simple and obvious observation....he is blinking about once per second, very odd.   Surely a salesman like this would know what this body language means.....extreme stress or he's lying (oh wait, he is a lawyer and his lips are moving).

Earthquakes--usually around 60 to 80 per week over 4.0 magnitude

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Silver, and Dollars, and Euros! Oh MY! Mother of all Charts

Comments please

This is some of my best stuff.....showing a totally conflicted market, on the edge of everything important, as is our global socio-economic political system.


Fear Factor Fractals Forming and NQ long

Nothing like some good juvenile alliteration, eh?

NQ at the bell, bought it long

Bears best watch out for a Bear Trap!

Shorts closed for now, NOT going long for bounce

All shorts closed for the moment.    Very nice rundown on the Nikkei futures and the Nas.

They often punch through even the 177 a .1% or .3% even, popping stops.    So if I set a short just below the line, more likely to get whipsaw.    BUT  if this line truly breaks there is buku air underneath, so why worry about catching every bit o f move, plenty of things to trade, plenty time to trade them, pulled a nice 4% account increase (in 2 days from this trade) while only putting 10% of account into the trade.

 USD futures, at an important line

Backtesting this line is like standing on the edge of the canyon and leaning off being buffeted up by the strong rising winds.    It could go either way.

 NQ is at channel support, putting in a classic double bottom.   I will buy this dip with a weak hand.

Drop a comment,

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Not your tax advisor-- however you should review with your trusted tax professional

Bottom line, some type of investments can receive 60% of their capital gains at a long term captial gains rate of 15%, and the rest at a short term capital gains rate of = your tax rate, probably 28% or higher! 

But this is tricky stuff, with lots of ramifications, twists and turns.   Most tax accountants and even CPA's won't know any of this off the top of their head. FIND a trusted tax professional that already knows this stuff better than your 4 hours of reading.

But also be very aware of the ramifications of "Self Employment Income" which subjects potential profits to social security and medicare.  Section 1256 contracts and property are included in net earnings from self-employment.

How are commodity ETFs taxed?
Many commodity ETFs uses futures contracts to obtain their commodities exposure while others, like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), own the physical commodity. Under current tax law, commodity ETFs that hold physical gold or silver are taxed at a long-term capital gains rate of 28%. Commodity products that use futures contracts are taxed each year even if you don't sell them. Capital gains are currently taxed at a hybrid rate of 60% long-term and 40% short-term gains.

Here is a more authoritative treatment on Code 1256 (allows the 60/40 long term/short term treatment, but disallows carryback or current deduction of more than $3000 in a tax year of investing losses), or the Code 475 option.    Honestly, I don't know the answer to how all this fits together

And here is a link to a classification of
"broad based" or "narrow based" as it relates to index options.

NQ misdirection triangle and Dr Copper don't lie (although he mady be ready for a dirt nap)


Short taken Tuesday Night, and Copper Perspective

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Europe Bond Rates (Fear Factor 3 - FF3)

We have long had the position that Europe will blow up first, although the UK is hosed fundamentally, they also have the "right" to deflate their currency (print money) in order to pay debts, make their products, more competitive, make thing right---except for that small part that those who worked hard and saved are drastically penalized as a percent of all their assets that can be valued in the GBP.  

On this specialty page, a few months back, we posted links to the bond rates of the major European countries.    Please page through them, some are rocketing up, some are moving up, some are drifting down.   But the rocketing up is fairly pronounced.   The "real news" will never come out until it is too late for "newsreaders" and at that point only good for mis-direction.

June 8, 2010 post on the Euro


NQ comparable fractals, and new channel found yesterday, confirmed today

See also the next post

Monday, March 7, 2011

Copper Soybeans and the Nasdaq, what do they have in common?

Answer---technicals to answer to.

Copper and Nas (NQ futures) have nice channels. These seem to say "more upside", but how can you second guess a contrarian?

Think of Big Ben, Dabama, and Timmay. Hank already got his, but how about these guys? They put a lot at risk, and perhaps they know they are losing the economy game, how are they still going to "get theirs". They can't plan and control everything, but they sure can be like pigs searching for truffles....they will find them no matter how many acres of pristine watershed forest need be turned to do so.