Friday, May 11, 2012

Put call et all, very bullish

This completely conflicts with my overall view of a big down.

McClellan (on the Nas) today was also a small move 4%--that implies a big market move coming up. 

But that is what the market sets up, gets the bear salivating and get them committed to their positions, OR because of the extreme rampy swings, get the bears now operating without stops because they are tired of being stopped out.  

Danger Will Robinson!!!!!!

Do you think that in this game for all the money in the world, that HBB doesn't have the best psychologists, the best analysts for crowd reaction based on inputs they can control?      Of course they do.    

So I use indicators that are hard to game, to filter out those intentional deceptions.   But this one right now is still tricky.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Deception and Training

People have recency bias.
 I believe this is hardwired.
It is hard to get around.

When the tape get whippy and rampy like this, people get stopped out of positions, 2 or 3 times, then they reduce their position size or tighten stops even tighter, or they sit out.

The market has "classic deception" moves and setups.

We are in one of them.

I predict the move is down big on US equities.

As per MarketSniper--The Market will act so as to cause you to act against your best interest.

Don't be deceived.

CBG Short Trade idea

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Civil Servants

Ha! I only have one thing to say as Britain is about to launch into a strike by "Civil Servants" Who want to strike to extract more from the productive force. This is the beginning of the end game. Prepare accordingly.

S&P 500 Head and Shoulders

CRITICAL H&S on the S&P ES --target 1280 This is also the Bernoulli Channel, I shorted the rip today, even using some weekly options for extra juice. Closed the weeklies (theta is a killer), kept the futures short, Euro short (tight leash) It could definitely take a day or two to take a stab at that mini-blimp and then down. Yesterday was a price up while up down volume was a clear sell day. Seems impossible. Seems like Fed is buying dying stocks and HBB is selling to them at the ask, even though the Fed keeps increasing the ask. Tin foil hat distribution. If so that means scary sled ride down, the scarier the better to justify QE 4/5 and save the election.

Up Down Volume Indicator

If you are not using this indicator you should. It is an Xray into the guts of the market, an "internal" It helps you understand what type of a trade day it is. The Pivot Boss Ochoa says there are 6 main types of days. Still reading that book. Interesting though, on the volume indicator, patterns appear to play out in "normal" technical interpretation. Fakeouts telegraph themselves. It is harder to fool up down volume than it is to manipulate price action directly.

Tues was market up on a strong sell volume day

Not even sure how they can pull that off? Up Down Volume yesterday was way negative, a clear initiative sell day, and yet indices were way up? I guess Goldman's HAL 20000 must be donig God's work, LOL

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Monday, May 7, 2012

Monday antics

No conviction on up down volume

Kind of a "screw the new shorts" day

Closed my Cable shorts yesterday, perfectly enough.  

Now cable has done a near perfect V retrace, which is a fairly new pattern at least to the extent that it plays out all the time....sheesh, the HAL20000 can't even be happy with a 78 retrace, now a full retrace to wipe out all the stops seems typical.   

QQQQ and AAPL will get a 13/34 EMA bear cross today.   Nothing that $50M of futures can't fix from your central planners, but nevertheless that is a big thing.

Back to bed from 90 minutes of sleep before my "day job" starts

Euro at resistance B100

Is Euro back in its down channel?

Fear Factor "looks" ready to plummet, that means a big increase in Fear, all air underneath it.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

George Carlin - the Owners

Sunday Boatload

I think these speak for themselves, USD is at a critical juncture. Top of its channel since November timeframe. A breakout could be spectacular, but no reason it won't swat down for a second pass at the blackline, the B177 channel line.

Moon Bounce?

Sometimes the market are totally in tune with the moon, they haven't been for a long long time, way longer than usually.

Pictures taken on Oahu, last night, Canon EOS Rebel XSI, no tripod, shooting at 1600 to 3000 speed.   Anything less, and this moon was SO BRIGHT that the whole image washed out.

PS the moon chart is from, they consistently rock these charts, and do at least as good a job as I could, so I honor them with copying.