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Saturday, June 19, 2010
The Gulf of Mexico receives the outfall of the Missisippi River, which drains a good portion of the US. It picks up a good amount of bio-materials and dumps that into the Gulf, and has been doing that for a long time.
One route of production of oil and methane is through decomposition of bio-materials. So of course the Gulf has lots of oil and methane.
In a previous post I pointed out that Methane Hydrate is some very interesting stuff. It is an ice-rock that can burn. It is found only in high pressure and cold places, like the bottom of the ocean, deep. Some claims have been made that the energy stored in MH is much greater than all the oil still buried in the earth, but this claim is disputed also. Bottom line---there is lots of MH hiding in the ocean floor and, sure, in the land areas too, as over tens of millions of years, the ocean and land areas move around. MH is very stable, it will just sit there forever, as long as the pressure and low temperature are kept up.
However, once you hit the sea floor the temperature is very cold, right around 0F. But as you go deeper into the sea floor, the rock mass heats up the further down you go, so MH won't exist really far under the sea bed, it will instead turn back into methane gas and water.
"They" say that there is lots of methane being released with the oil, and that the methane can be very detrimental to the earth.
The pressures involved in an oil well are in the thousands of PSI.
And Methane "kicks" are a well known and common issue involved in all oil well drilling. Methane is usually a gas, and as a gas rises in a liquid environment, it expands as the pressure decreases (as the depth below the surface decreases)
Oil drililng is "real man" stuff. Unfortunately "real man" stuff also attracts overly risk taking cowboy type of attitudes. There is big money and big egos.
Just look at some of the audacious comments by BP personnel. They cannot even cover up their attitudes while they know that they are under the microscope. Look at the Grand Flubber himself, who is "devastated", and "wants his life back", as he sails one of his yachts around an island in England (today) as the spill goes unabated. I am glad he gets a chance to relax....
There are multiple players with overlapping responsibility. There are government regulators who are too cozy with those they oversee. It is a ripe field for growing a disaster.
All that said, there was a similar oil spill in the Gulf in 1979, caused by similar circumstances, they tried the EXACT same manuevers as they have tried on this latest spill, in the same order, and with the same results. Bottom line here? The gulf recovered pretty well. The high temperatures allow biological degradation of the oil, much better than in say Alaska.
I guess this is a good time to be in the solar business, except no one except the governments appears to have the money and willingness to do projects. And it appears that the Gov in now pumping out lots of PV projects kind of designed so that only the biggest companies (that can provide big campaign contributions), can win. This is creating PV panel shortages and cost increases. Sigh---another bubble---benefiting big business and hurting small business and the small customer who has to compete with the gov for product.
Friday, June 18, 2010
If no one is reading this stuff, I am not motivated to post.
Timmay, doing the dirty Harry look...tough on inflation, tough on China, tough on tax payers....ouch.
Fear Factor is kind of in no man's land, the horizontal line is not signifying anything except where we are now....and that doesn't match up with any longer term horizontal resistance.
I didn't want to lose this link so posting it here.
"Economic Eye Candy"---gotta love it.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
I have never read a whole speech of his, just some quips like "we will never surrender", but this was truly worthy and inspiring of not just fighting the good fight, but fighting that fight with the forethought and preparedness that encourages and expands unity and purpose.
As our battle for free markets, we will someday win them back.
A good link to a less biased news source.
Last day of expiry, expect some ramp up and down, scaring people out of position. And then a pretty neutral close, with some buying at the end as Pavlov's dogs salivate over ramp up Monday.
One chart below shows a massive stop sweep. This can’t happen without coordinated effort, and/or coordinated algo’s.
I saw this on the NQ futures, but was surprised to see this blatant sweep on the ES futures as well. The pop in the Euro was last night, not anywhere near this pop /sweep.
Also, here again is the bouncing Ball Chart. Note that the pricing and timing are coordinated. Look at the Sep/Oct time frame.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
1) We meander around a narrow range for a while
2) More aggressive and fast longs
How to make money in this market?
I am thinking a call spread, thus limiting downside and with significant upside should market charge ahead.
The risk of massive moves to the downside is omni-present. The HBB does not want retail (yeah, that's you and me) to participate in the drop like in 2008/2009. They want it all for themselves.
See my previous Euro chart, its a good one. Almost shocking.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Fireman attacks and punches barbequer
There is a video on the link if you want to see the video.
And be careful if you are a jaywalker, even a woman gets punched by a police officer. They were approaching the officer and contacting him, and in theory could have grabbed his gun or something, but all that said, this guy went way over the top.
Back test of the broken rising wedge, AND a double top, however, the 800 lb gorilla in the room says upward pressure on the SPX as long as the Euro is rising. Sure they downgraded Greek debt the other day, BUT that is also classic Cramer manipulation of old school days.....down grade the stock near the bottom, shake out the shakables.
Monday, June 14, 2010
It shows a more important thing...even this thing called the Earth that we like to think of as "being on solid ground", is transitory. You can find stability in your own thoughts, your comfort level with instability, mojo inner peace, what have you....but if you wish for and expect stability in the Earth itself, the markets, or other peoples reaction to well....anything....you shall be sadly disappointed. And that is one reason why I chart Earthquakes, and why last week I predicted some odd earthquakes to come with this new moon. And actually it seems like they come a day or three after the moon. When the moon and sun are aligned the planet gets stretched, then when it slides to the side, it pulls the planet section to the side, a so-called pop me pull me effect.
What is funny, is that this is very obvious to mechanical and gravitational thought process of physics, and yet nothing like this has ever been printed in anything that I have ever read. Not saying that there aren't kooks out there similar to me, but I have not read anything like it, and it is far, far away from mainstream media.
I think it would hurt the human pysche to have to admit that an orbiting rock could adversely affect us "great and powerful humans" in such an extreme way. And herein, I think we find some truths about ourselves and the way that we can relate to our own lives and those around us.
Please note post from last week, and get the gadget from Google!
There is occasionally some throw over even beyond the yellow outer 133 channel line.
But this is "too much" IMHO.
So now only 2 option for the bearish position:
1) We bounced down from strong support at around 2279 on the Nas, 1106 on the SPX, 10330 on the Dow. All with hammer candles.
1a) This is the longest shot--because the Euro and the SPX have been joined at the hip for so long. Is that these would now decouple.
or --much more likely--
2) Euro will drive the SPX higher, pick your percent, pick a Fib, could be large.
That said, a number of intermediate indicators ought to be reversed to be bullish by an increasing overall market. But all the other indicators and custom charts, and ratio charts say that this market is a crispy critter.
Also I am using a new HTML format for the blog. I wanted to cimplify it, and many people complained that it was slow to navigate around in. Funny thing is, the old one was always fast on my computer, this new one seems slow to scroll.
PLEASE COMMENT....is this better or worse, in what way.
I simplified many of the links (removed many) if there was one you really like that is now gone, let me know and I will restore it.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
But this rising wedge gives a little more bearish mojo back.
Look at this top. Seriously, is this the look of a bull market taking a breather, looking for footing to launch from?
Or is it the look of a Bronto whose fundamentals of environment have changed and it is in it's death throes...thrashing it's neck back and forth, up and down, as it remembers and hopes for the return of it's glory, while being angry knowing that he is going down.
Interesting reading the blogsphere....so many people finding "excuses" to be bullish, to be balanced. How many retail are out there somehow thinking that the new SEC rules will protect them, that they can buy and hold without worry of a huge stopout.
The set-up is perfect. Bears and Bulls both getting crushed. This market is nearly impossible to "trade". You are in the fighting ring with an injured and angry Bronto. He is going down, but can still damage you.
And a great book I read on my trip to Japan (sitting on planes, trains, buses) is called The Tipping Point. Great statistics on how little changes can results in huge changes in direction. This has applicability to the stock market.
And these folks do such a great job at Astro stuff, I don't even try to play in that field, just visit their site.
Keep in mind June 21 is already on us. That is the longest day of the year. The solstices and equinoxes are turning points, that sometimes affects the markets.
Now is no moon. Those freak people out more than full moons.
These are all very bearish, with the exception of the "Fear Factor" which hints that a further push up may be in order to satisfy a fractal match to a previous 3 drives up in Sep 2008. Check of the GS ratio chart, it does a fine job of leading the market.
The World Cup is on. These are huge psychological events on a global humanity scale. I theorize that these type of events, like the Olympics, can alter the Elliot Wave fractals of the markets.
As if we didn't have enough "inputs" to the market already. Be on guard though, for even more volatility.
It is all about the Euro.