Saturday, June 11, 2011

Feel Good Saturday Post

Waikiki does rock, numerous free hula shows and music, street entertainment.

Armstrong -- Martin that is

Wow, three days since the last post (must be sign of an exhaustion top)

On Monday I wrote -- ES and Euro ready to plunge, and indeed they did.

That post is here.

Funny reading EWI from May.
They seem to have lost their mojo, or even their ability to pretend that they are always right.    In one case they state "just thinking aloud" as if a pre-excuse for being wrong, then in another section, they state that their previous ratio chart of Dow/GLD was just plain wrong.   Very odd.

Here are a few docs from Martin Armstrong.    This is not MSM.   The second one is his 1998 "fall tour" with predictions which are actually quite startling.

And here is your "POMO me now Pumps" schedule

To end right after July 4 holiday, which is the Fear factor based end of the world as we once knew it.
See prior post

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Trade Ideas

If you haven't checked them out, try out a FREE 2 week membership, I did that about 4 times using different email addresses.    That was a waste of effort....then I finally joined up and have been happily paying their fee, much less than I am making on simple quick trade ideas and great overall market analysis.    

And when you are ready....use the link on my blog to sign up, it doesn't cost you anymore, but gives me credits.   It helps the cause for sure.  Please consider it.  

Check them out here.

Fibonacci Time Relation to Fear Factor predicts Drop on July 4th

Could be just a coincidence.   After 2 years of being pounded, even bears are looking for the bullish case.

But this Fibo time prediction is at least curious, it is using the Fear Factor to predict a spike in Fear on July 4th, that would not a bottom but the start of a rapid decline.    Drop a comment or even your own chart.

And here it is full size

ES and Euro ready to plunge?

 On Tuesday I wrote (on the notes on the third chart down), Volatility Ratio VOS indicate that tomorrow that Kansas go bye bye.   Review it, then review today.

Well this is the strongest signal for me.    ES fell right to the PRS 177.  

However, one oddball event, futures "rollover", in which the June futures pretty much stops trading, and the Sep futures takes over.   The Sep futures price is quite a bit less, usually like 4 points, todays roll created a gap on the Jun and Sep, and the spread was more like 7.

So out perfect "hit" on the PRS is mudied by this rollover.

Indeed June keep trading for a while, at much lower volumes.    I close those out when rollover occurs, otherwise you will some day be handed a settlement price created by some formula that you can rest assured will not work in your favor.

Keep in mind these channels were drawn months ago.   They are predictive, not just pretty pictures drawn to show what already happened.  And it is now backtesting the PRS, exactly like before the flash crash.   However, I keep in mind --look at the backtest of the magenta PRS 100, there is some "give" in these lines.   High liklihood short with good rational basis for risk control (stop).

Pretty clear this will be a good bounce or a crash.  Kind of too busy to play an options volatility spread, will take large short futures, and be ready to reverse the trade.  It also seems like Euro is ready to plunge.

 Euro, may bounce to a Fibo, but may be ready to plunge right now

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Euro Trade, Took Profits, "Winner's Remorse", And Lightning Epiphany

Took some money out of the FX market.

Closed the trade, the ES had put in some big volume spikes.   These usually come with a recovery up.  Seeing 1200 contracts on a minute in between the major markets being open is a big thing. 

So expecting Euro to follow ES (not true last 3 days, but true last 3 years, this is part of the current deception in play), I closed my Euro short.   Then I saw the Euro drop more.....I had 3 seconds of Winner's Remorse, and then I got over it....

After all, I had profits, I had acted on a solid premise.    4 hours later, looking at a huge up retracement in the Euro---confirmed my "control of winner's remorse".

No time for charting tonight.

Drop a comment, sign up as a follower, hey, even post a chart!



Anedoctyl evidence.   At least in Hawaii, people are losing it.   Just in small but very noticeable ways, this last week it seems.   To an outside observer, with skin in the game (human), it is quite obvious.   Quite different than normal Hawaii, where people at least act nice, except for the anti-social and the ice-heads.  

Also interesting how as most people get edgy and even nasty that other people kind of compensate to the opposite side....very happy or a bit too familiar.  

I shall try to remain an observer as much as that will upset both of the natural sides.   I might have to go underground and act like I am one of the other.

Also a quick comment on the "head in the sand" happy approach to things.   I was at the bank, the sun was shining, but 3 miles away around the mountain side, in Makakilo, there had been a massive lighting storm going off for 30 minutes, seeing many multiple lighting strikes hitting ground from my 270 degree view backyard.    And monsterous thunder rumbling and cracking.   Very, very unusual for Hawaii.   I would not discount any tin-foil hat wearing radiation theorists from a view that months of this very unusual acting, very unusual looking weather was in fact due to stuff spewing from Fukushima.   Maybe just charged particles, not necessarily radiation.

Back to the bank.   So the teller was this 20 something girl who was quite proficient at the teller task, and we chatted about thank God it's Friday, etc.   She seemed pretty and normal.    She asked if it was raining outside and I said not yet, but in Makakilo there was a massive lightning storm and it was coming around this way.   In all seriousness, she said with a pleading look on her face...."Don't tell me".   And that was a moment of recognition, she really meant it, and would beg just to not have to hear any (more) bad news, even if that news could be beneficial to her strategy of how to plan the rest of her day.      

Moment of recognition.    Just one anecdotal piece, but sometimes a light bulb goes off in my head, and this was an epiphany.

Egg of Doom Revisit, and the VOS indicator$SPX&p=W&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66071057901&a=232353968

above link to egg of doom

Forex Euro BDM Pattern

The BDM pattern is kind of like the frog boil....a steep ramp to either scare you out or to "keep you in" as in its has to fall.   but then decreasing candle size and velocity upward....

forming a bearish wedge.

time will tell.

Had nice profits on the Euro short, gave all back at this time, if it ramps up will end up with a loss.   

Lost patience and shorted Euro, maybe the triple top on the PRS channel line in the sand was enough

Euro bouncing along the PRS 177, DRTV perhaps, 78 Pop perhaps

Instead of DR Copper, think DRTV......  

That is the double top or double bottom pattern.   

As a mnemonic is helps me not get tricked out by the Dog Returneth To Vomit pattern --- DR TV

This may go for the 78 Fibo, as popping the 78 Fibo is so en vogue these days, or it may turn down immediately.

I have some decent profit on ES long from 1284.5, I will tightly stop those profits, on the potential Euro diaster which is just a matter of time.

"It doesn't matter until it matters"

Stockcharts - Getting sketchy

Send them an email an complain, you have to send it through their site.

I sent this - let's see if anything happens---
Lots of stuff seems really sketchy on your site.
If it was free, I would just be annoyed.

But I have paid for services, and expect that when i am basing financial decisions on purchasing your services, that your services wouldn't arbitrarily change, or be "sketchy"

One item in particular--

intraday put/call data

I would like your written response.   But if things don't improve, I will be cancelling my membership and telling my credit card company to reverse the charge.

I will review in one week.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

June 15th Lunar Eclipse

Hey kind of cool, visitors from every continent and a few islands.

And these eclipses just "sneak up on you", well at least you know 10 days ahead of time.  Note the wolf on the pier.

Scary Headlines

Haven't Done a "Scary Headline" in a while.

June 15th is a lunar eclipse, which is when are 2 most gravitationally important solar system bodies, the Sun and the Moon, line up nearly perfectly.   It is a no-brainer that this is could be the straw that breaks the camels back so to speak.

Earthquake that is. 

Worst case scenario, another eartquake in Japan.   They are smart people, they study things, and have technology.    They built their country and infrastructure to withstand a 9.0 and not allow China to invade them. They study earthquakes.   Even though they have massive power shortages, they have shut down 2/3 of all their nuclear reactors.   Do you think they know something?

These are the facts.   Read between the lines, because the news is intentionally distorted or blacked out.

When there was an earthquake in Hawaii, I was amazed at the complete dearth of information provided on the news.    It was all about the Governor just reassuring people "don't panic", don't tie up the phone system if you don't have too, we are researching and we are in communication.   Don't panic.

Governments fear panic, a lot.  They will go to any length to avoid panic.

The fuel storage site at Fukuhima #4 is structurally unsound.   TEPCO has "plans" to shore it up in a few months.   They may not get that chance.  

The total "fuel" (mostly uranium, or 'once through' uranium) at Fukushima is around 2,500,000 lbs.   That is a lot.    8 lbs are needed to make a nuclear bomb.     Read this NEI data sheet that explains a little about the fuel storage, including the used fuel at #4.

After my guest post on ZeroHedge on March 16th, "Exposing" the vast problems at Fukushima, Tyler at Zerohedge has really had some great articles and expert input.   I would like to think that my contribution opened a few eyes, although anecdotal evidence shows that the vast majority of people in the US are effectively under nuclear news blackout conditions.

Here is my post on Zerohedge

One other good post from ZH is below, indicating that TEPCO has admitted that at time their has been open air fission at the number 4 pool, i.e. they lost the water probably due to cracks due to earthquake, or from the serious explosion that blew the entire roof and upper walls from the building.

Why do I keep harping on this?   Because it is probably the most important thing that has happened in our lives, and there is an effective news blackout.    That is extreme.   

Here is a new site I just found, it has data from Fukushima, scary data.   It looks too complete for them to be able to fudge all of it.  For instance, Unit 1 drywell radiation levels of 200 Sievert per hour.   That is Sievert, the big one.   Usually micro Sievert is the unit of measure.    The lifetime allowable for the plant workers was 100 Milli-Sievert, which was raised to 250 Milli-Sv.    Obviously no one is going into that drywell, because they would receive 800 lifetimes of radiation in 1 hour, probably a immediately lethal dose.

Here is some real video of a 5.6 aftershock causing explosions at the plant.
I am not sure what date this is, guessing Mid May from quick glance at earthquake data.

SPX long term chart, Lucy and Charlie Brown

The chart notes say it all

Ol' Bucky

The classic 78% retracement of the previous rise.   How simplisticly devious.   Good chance 'Ol bucky is ready for a run up.   The weak hands, waiting for the Euro to fall during massive bad news probably threw in the towel on USD as "doomed".   The question, is ---more doomier than thou?   All currencies are doomed in fact, at least paper ones.   All of them.   At some point the leaderships that control monetary supply will bring the value of each currency in the world, to zero.    That is the way it works, in history, every time. 

This isn't much of a "double bottom" or what I keep trying to remind myself are tricky, they like to fake out those who jump on, and retrace back to shake them off.   Then when are "burnt" they are afraid to jump on only the biggest boyz get to join in on the largest move.   Biggest or smartest.   I nickname this tendency the DRTV Dog Returneth To Vomit.   The graphic image jumps into my brain, works for simple, simple mnemonic tricks.

I am leaving ES alone, as ES is more likely to be directly gamed.  Esp. by the current administration who call the P/E ratio the "profit to earnings" ratio.

Nikkei and Cable in danger

Euro, Nikkei, Cable all at critical points.