Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Euro Trade, Took Profits, "Winner's Remorse", And Lightning Epiphany

Took some money out of the FX market.

Closed the trade, the ES had put in some big volume spikes.   These usually come with a recovery up.  Seeing 1200 contracts on a minute in between the major markets being open is a big thing. 

So expecting Euro to follow ES (not true last 3 days, but true last 3 years, this is part of the current deception in play), I closed my Euro short.   Then I saw the Euro drop more.....I had 3 seconds of Winner's Remorse, and then I got over it....

After all, I had profits, I had acted on a solid premise.    4 hours later, looking at a huge up retracement in the Euro---confirmed my "control of winner's remorse".

No time for charting tonight.

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Anedoctyl evidence.   At least in Hawaii, people are losing it.   Just in small but very noticeable ways, this last week it seems.   To an outside observer, with skin in the game (human), it is quite obvious.   Quite different than normal Hawaii, where people at least act nice, except for the anti-social and the ice-heads.  

Also interesting how as most people get edgy and even nasty that other people kind of compensate to the opposite side....very happy or a bit too familiar.  

I shall try to remain an observer as much as that will upset both of the natural sides.   I might have to go underground and act like I am one of the other.

Also a quick comment on the "head in the sand" happy approach to things.   I was at the bank, the sun was shining, but 3 miles away around the mountain side, in Makakilo, there had been a massive lighting storm going off for 30 minutes, seeing many multiple lighting strikes hitting ground from my 270 degree view backyard.    And monsterous thunder rumbling and cracking.   Very, very unusual for Hawaii.   I would not discount any tin-foil hat wearing radiation theorists from a view that months of this very unusual acting, very unusual looking weather was in fact due to stuff spewing from Fukushima.   Maybe just charged particles, not necessarily radiation.

Back to the bank.   So the teller was this 20 something girl who was quite proficient at the teller task, and we chatted about thank God it's Friday, etc.   She seemed pretty and normal.    She asked if it was raining outside and I said not yet, but in Makakilo there was a massive lightning storm and it was coming around this way.   In all seriousness, she said with a pleading look on her face...."Don't tell me".   And that was a moment of recognition, she really meant it, and would beg just to not have to hear any (more) bad news, even if that news could be beneficial to her strategy of how to plan the rest of her day.      

Moment of recognition.    Just one anecdotal piece, but sometimes a light bulb goes off in my head, and this was an epiphany.

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