Saturday, March 6, 2010

VIX Chart, and DWX /GLS per blog participant request.

Credit given to Zig Zag who came up with these comparison charts on the VXN (like the VIX).  I noticed this gap down on Friday also, but Zig Zag gets the high five for "doing the work".


And here is the DWC/GLD

Friday, March 5, 2010

Complexity is the Handmaiden of Deception

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/complexity-is-the-handmaiden-of-deception.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Trade ideas, FF blow off, Short Silver,

Yeah!  Greece is saved, party on Garth.   It is funny, if you actually read the articles, they actually tell you exactly what you need to know--

No one is guaranteeing these bonds from Greece, only Greece (sorry Greece, thats reality)

Greece doesn't want to appear to be begging (they are proud), and they don't want the perception of weakness.

They think that this is only a matter of confidence -- as opposed to structural deficiencies of way to many trips to the punchbowl, followed by way too many crack hits to get the zombie to dance once more.

They want rest of Europe, especially Germany, to publicly tout that Greece is an independent country that can stand on it's own..... huh?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/05/greece-bonds-sell-off-the_n_487025.html
 
We did a piece on the deceptive nature of market jargon.   By getting people to feel like "an insider" with special lingo, they are more willing to put their capital at risk.
http://www.smartmoney.com/breaking-news/on/?story=ON-20100305-000424

If you haven't read this, you better, it is likely to affect you.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/02/new-buzz-words-annuitization-tin-foil.html

"It's so much easier to suggest solutions when you don't know too much about the problem."
  - Malcolm Forbes

If you Greece the Wheels Enough, Anyone can sell bonds, even Greece

Greece moved some 10 year bonds.   They had to offer 6.25% which is way high, and they are stuck with paying that for 10 years.  Keep an eye on all sorts of bonds.

Use the right tool bar, "bonds as indicators".   right click and open all in rapid sucession the you can quickly click through them.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f77790d0-27c2-11df-863d-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

And here is my day-trading setup (not sure "i wish"), paralysis by analysis = information overload.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/03/his-is-way-bigger-than-yours-one-day.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund

Finally some bond charts....the horrors, the horrors.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Blow off tops everywhere and Investment Grade Bonds going off!!!!

"I see them everywhere" like ghosts of prophets past.

Blow off tops that is.   On many of my favorite tickers to watch.   Not the current watchlist, but many of my old favorites. 

 Just noticed, Investment grade bonds shooting through the roof.....wow.  They say that bond traders are a bit smarter than their equity slinging cousins.  Does that mean someone knows something?   Like the Greeced wheel is about to come off the cart?   Time will tell.

One strategy is to set a "short on weakness" order.   Say, if /ES drop to 1118, then short X futures at market.   Or you could say above 1117.5 but on a strong down, you might not get filled.

I have played this short on weakness on the Euro for weeks with good success... you wake up, make a coffee, brush your teeth, and then open your box of chocolates and see what you got!


And here are some "indicators" without time for comment.

Time is very important in the markets, once of the least focused on things by the "Establishment".   That's a good way to know that it is one of the things you should look at closely.   Whatever "they" dangle in front of your face day in and day out, IS NOT, what will make you money.


I had a super tight stop on SRS and got stopped out, may regret that, but then, it is better to regret not being in a position than regret being in a position.  But I still may regret it tomorrow.

Everyone knows going long into the weekend pays off, right?   Well not so much lately. 

EEM update

Still like the short

These 2 waves will last just long enough to degrade your put value to less than 50% by price swing and IV crush due to low volatility.  They will last long enough to shake you out of your position at the worst possible time, right before the next move down.

The market is tricky, it is supposed to take your money, that is it's job.   It is the master of deception.

Don't be deceived.   Don't be stubborn....see it's that easy :-)

SRS put on your radar & updated -the Euro saga continues

Check SRS, this could break out to the upside soon. Long SRS=Short Real Estate.  What could be more obvious than that?

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

GDX lifted from Tim Knight

Easy to set a stop!

Looks bearish to me right now, NEW EUR Chart 133% Channel at bottom

Of course, fundamental always look bearish to me lately, but these charts are beckoning.

A day or two more bull, and then a turn down

Rarely do I see everything point one way, but this is pretty close.
Of all my eclectic indicators, I see a day or two more advance, and then a turn down.  Just MHO of course.



And I am not the only one that see patterns....check this one from Daneric

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S429w7OWNbI/AAAAAAAAENE/os2xWWusQRY/s1600-h/bidu.png

Debt defaults

Debt defaults

I couldn't have said it better than these folks, so I won't

https://www.realpoint.com/PublicDocDisplay.aspx?i=6Z4f4G6%2b0QA%3d&m=i0Pyc%2bx7qZZ4%2bsXnymazBA%3d%3d&s=LviRtUKXqs8kml5dHt7FTeE2SZmY0Fvqd4iX49Mk%2f9UapyiFTEO6TA%3d%3d

MS a bearish wedge, and Silver heading to a retrace, maybe in a day or two.



Monday, March 1, 2010

Corruption, a 6 year would be able to spot this as obvious and unbridled corruption

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/01/top-treasury-official-lea_n_481102.html

Indicators --- Ducks all in a row

Looking for comments from readers, and also....post up your own favorite indicators, use Jing its really easy....get into the 21st century in like 10 minutes!

If you can't screen capture and post....we will call you T-Rex.

There is no big money moving, buying on weakness nor shorting on strength

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

Doctor copper has a cold

And, wow, talk about the ring of fire....

Chile is big on copper, they are going to be set back a bit.  That is probably the root of the copper spike.

When mother earth sneezes, Doctor copper catches a cold.

And, wow, talk about the ring of fire....

Sunday, February 28, 2010

ES and the infamous 133% channel

PRSGuitars introduced the 133% channel.  
It is easy to set up, it is not like you are doing thinkscript programming, just clicking.

Check it out, try it.   You'll see how many times the 133% channel line is an important line!

Steveo out

Below is from PRS.   I was supposed to do a quasi-guest post a month or so back....sometimes these things just fall under the bus....not thrown, shaken, not stirred.

PRSGuitars wrote, in response to steveo77:

How to draw 133s in TOScharts...
-- draw any channel anywhere -- this will become your default channel
-- right click on the channel and select 'edit properties'
-- under the sub-area (lower part of the window) 'edit curves' click 'add curve'
-- the new curve has a default value of '0', so, change that to be 1.33333
-- (suit your own preference) change the color and style of the 1.333 line (I use dotted yellow) so it's distinct
-- if you so desire, add a 'lower/underside 133% extension' by repeating these steps but adding a 2nd curve and entering '-0.33333' for the value of the 2nd curve.
-- make sure both curves are unchecked (for 'hidden')... this way both 133s show up WHENEVER YOU DRAW ANY CHANNEL! Already there for you.
-- CRUCIAL STEP -- click 'save as default' in the lower left corner of the properties window... thus your new 133s are solidified on all new channels
-- if you want to hide any 133s, go to 'edit properties' and check the hidden box (useful if charts get too cluttered)
-- if you don't want this as a default, duh, just don't check 'save as default'... just add them at your discretion to channels via the edit properties window.

Hawaii Tsunami

The aftermath...fortunately, none.   Only inconvenience.  

There was no actual Tsunami wave lashing away at shorelines, scooping away buildings and people.   There was major, major tidal like shifts that took place.   More than a normal days tidal shift taking place in 3 to 10 minutes and then reversing.

Just saying...the effects were seen, and big enough.   

This was the 5th biggest recorded earthquake since we as humans could record them....

The biggest was when Chile had an earthquake in 1960 and it devasted Hawaii's second largest city, Hilo.  It was a 9.5, this was a 8.8.

Thanks to those who expressed concern on the blogs that I post on.