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Friday, August 5, 2011

Quotes from Great Depression number 1

September 1929

“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury.

October 14, 1929

“Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board.” — New York Times

December 5, 1929

“The Government’s business is in sound condition.” — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury

December 28, 1929

“Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression.” — Associated Press dispatch.

January 13, 1930
“Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today.” – News item.

January 21, 1930

“Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction.” – News dispatch from Washington.

January 24, 1930

“Trade recovery now complete President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by own power. No Stimulants Needed! Progress in all lines by the early spring forecast.” – New York Herald Tribune.

March 8, 1930

“President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days.” – Washington Dispatch.

May 1, 1930

“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States – that is, prosperity.” – President Hoover

June 29, 1930

“The worst is over without a doubt.” – James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

August 29, 1930

“American labor may now look to the future with confidence.” – James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

September 12, 1930

“We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.” – James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

October 16, 1930

“Looking to the future I see in the further acceleration of science continuous jobs for our workers. Science will cure unemployment.” – Charles M. Schwab.

October 20, 1930

“President Hoover today designated Robert W. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as chairman of the President’s special committee on unemployment.” – Washington dispatch.

October 21, 1930

“President Hoover has summoned Colonel Arthur Woods to help place 2,500,000 persons back to work this winter.” - Washington Dispatch

November 1930

“I see no reason why 1931 should not be an extremely good year.” – Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., General Motors Co.

January 20, 1931

“The country is not in good condition.” – Calvin Coolidge.

June 9, 1931

“The depression has ended.” – Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.

Platypus pattern, OK have some fun

I am not joking, I never lie, i am lying now.



Thursday, August 4, 2011

Nothing matters until it does

This all started with the contrived "debt default", when in actuallity the US is defaulting every time it decide to print money, increase the monetary supply. 

For months we been stating, Nothing matters until it does.   Now somehow, everything matters.  

Certainly this can be just a primer shot for QE3, get people scared enough, grab some more power and print some more money.

What happens next?  I think up, and soon.  Today was a surprise though, volume was huge, P/C IS HUGE.  
We will see.

I thought this funny, not in a good way.   The traders on the exchange wear a uniform, with the Amercian flag.    Yet the goings on of late are far from American.   If the pig was not floating, it couldn't crash...who the heck filled it with helium?

I love the American flag.   I guess there is no law against anyone wearing it.  Especially if they are doing God's work.

Amazon is out of flags
http://www.amazon.com/United-States-American-Embroidered-Patches/dp/B004K8OVBC

You can get some here.
http://www.legendaryusa.com/American-Flag-Patches-s/38.htm

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Game plan

Market to go higher but not for long
Then a tank down maybe 14% from current prices
Then QE3 officially

Trade Plan 1)

Ride up some long calls, take profits rather quickly and remorselessly, assume this can drive up 5 or 6 %, the put call is about as high as it ever gets, it only get this high maybe 8 times in 8 years.   This is the perfect setup for HBB to crush bears.

On the way up scale into some longer term puts

Trade Plan 2)

Buy short term calls
Sell long term calls

Trade Plan 3)

Trade the BPT SPY Killer system, but due to volatility, use the scale in version and instead of trading 2,3,4,5 ES futures, trade 1,2,3

The trade is currently active, although sorry to say, enrollment is not open.  

Trade Plan 4)

Definitely play the BPT GDX (Gold Miners) mechanical index.

Trade Plan 5)

Possibly play some BPT generated long breakout ideas, be satisfied with 6% to 10%, never more
Also review Slope of Hope for trade ideas (usually Knight will be leaning short)

Trade Plan 6)

Invest in Oil/Gas US drilling, 82% tax deduction 1st year, 14 to 18% annual returns thereafter of which 30% is tax free.   Yes indeed the old boy club has been creating these tax shelters for a hundred years....join them.   Hard to find a broker

Trade Plan 7)
Buy some physical silver, just to have, I am only talking a few thousand worth.    Barter money.

Overall Plan:
  1. Conserve time on trading/investing.
  2. Click through the most important indicators, get them set up on Stockcharts all under INDICATORS chart list
  3. Quick review of HT custom indicators, FF, VOS, and PM Exuberance index 
  4. Do not obsess over any news. 
  5. Blog reading restricted to Slope of Hope for trade ideas, BPT blog trade ideas, total time 15 minutes in morning, 10 in evening, speed read BPT nightly newsletter, 10 min max, 10 min setting alerts on possible trades.
  6. Do not obsess with continuous monitoring of stocks during trade hours
  7. Blog posting, only for historical documentation of trades or perspectives
Stay away from leveraged ETFs, the flash crash shenanigan can probably be "played" by HBB a few more times before that is more regulated.

Short term tick trading is just not working.   Hold off on that.

Spike Bottoms and H&S

lack of participation on the blog, makes me think this is a top, top we might not see for another decade.

People seems to be all ramped up from this "Debt non-event" so much that maybe it is an event, just 'cuz.

We have sold off plenty of this nature, percent fall, just in the last rally.  

But we did break the uptrend line from March 2009 lows, Hank's 666.   So maybe this does matter.

It won't matter until it does.

The recent 6 month Head and Shoulders was also broke, but that has happened in the past, and they were both incredible bear traps---fail by 4% and then ramp steeply and relentlessly.   This one failed by more like 3%.


Wed charts

shotgun post







Most unkindest cut of all - Spidey

They turned Spidey into Dabama (Orwellian dis Belief)

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/08/02/new-spider-man-swinging-into-comic-book-shops-following-death-of-peter-parker/

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Dysfunctional--Gov, Markets, Forex

divergence, of a big meaning, perhaps.

The Euro and Cable DID NOT follow the ES down, only on the first drop prior.

So I think "they" HBB sold the US equities market and just sat in cash a while.   Maybe now they "catch up" with their Forex investments and sell Euro and Cable.   They both look like tasty shorts.

And the macro ECH theories lean towards it also.

Moving average takes out some of the noise


ES at bottom of channel, if this ain't a bounce the deep kim chee is here

For nuclear buffs, this is a good writeup, like there actually might still be some journalism going on in the US.

http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1/9375-nelles-fukushima-update-august-1-2011.html

This is the S&P 500 futures, just now tapped the bottom of the channel, the 177% level.

If it doesn't bounce here, it won't

Notice also the longer term Head and Shoulders pattern that had just been broken (or confirmed), just like 2009 and 2010.   But maybe this time instead of a bear crushing fake-out, maybe this is the real thing and it will continue down.




Tuesday, 2 purposes

I figured another push down, needed to crush bears, convince them that no over the weekend Dabama saves the world rally is going to come.

And when that rally does come, then convinces everyone of the omnipotence of the Big Gov.   "See without us, this economy is screwed", and 90% of the public will eat it up along with their food stamps.

Getting ready for some calls

Dabama is indeed our orator in chief.

A few minutes after the vote, President Obama excoriated his Republican opposition for what he called a manufactured crisis that could have been avoided. “Voters may have chosen divided government,” he said, “but they sure didn’t vote for dysfunctional government.”

The best lies have an element of the truth.   Indeed a manufactured crisis, however, this is decades of build up of problems related to a great extent to easy money.    Now they want to solve the easy money with.....more debt, spending, more money.    What a farce.

Monday, August 1, 2011

10PM Hawaii Time and it's Europe Open

A Bernoulli break, A Backtest, and some tasty targets to the downside.

Bernoulli is the Hawaii Trading custom channel.   Bernoulli was an old scientist guy who was big on numerology.  Actually, sometimes numbers "tricks" end up being an incredible tool pushing science forward over road blocks.    There are three channel extensions.


Here is an actual FX trade I placed

Pyschological tip:  If you ever place a trade "on accident", it does happen, especially when doing tricky conditional orders.   Just close it out and start fresh.   The $4 to $10 to place and correct the trade is alot cheaper than the emotional baggage that there is no need to leave the gate with.


Anatomy of Good Trade

95% of trading is mental /pychological.  Some traders will spend hundreds or thousands of hours learning this and that method, that indicator.   But they won't spend 10 hours to address their own pyschology of trading.    I hope it stays that way, because in that zero sum game, I'll be on the other side of the trade.

"Trading in the Zone" read it.   Nuff said.   If you don't read it, I don't want you commenting on this blog.  You got 2 months, it's simple.   

Here is a nice example from Laidtrades.   They don't rant alot, but they do some good charts.  

Here is what is good, and here is what takes the most erratic and dangerous element out of the trade ---  that be you.    A rational basis for entry, a rational stop (not too tight), and a rational target profit.

In this market, I keep reminding myself not to get greedy.   This is not your granpappy's market, this is a tape banging top, complete with pushes and pulls from the media circus and the political caucus.   the old adage of "let your winners run", well, screw that.   You got a profit, lock it in.   Set a rational target and then don't get greedy.  

This is the land of 78% retracements, or even 100%.   Indeed, it is different than 2 years ago.  

And go visit laid trades, they got good ideas, good charts, and vivacious Filipina girls, I am not joking!

http://www.laidtrades.com/

The Debt Caucus / Circus


Sunday, July 31, 2011

Chart of Charts -- the Old Classic

I do like the Chart of Charts.
Although Charts themselves can be made to lie, when you have a multi-trillion dollar beast insisting they ALL go one way or the other. 

The Chart of Charts shows
1) All three signal lines are bearish
2) There are not alot of charts currently broken out (rapidly rising or falling)
3) There are not a lot of charts ready to break out.

A bit of Cognitive Dissonance here, as this goes against some other methods I have saying bullish, the main one being expected "rally" on the gov saving the world again by agreeing on the debt non-issue.
Also oversold using a witches brew of indicators.

Put call never ramped up though, I think the last super spike in June just before the bears got pummeled hard, has scared off the bears.   But there are not alot of calls either.  
PS lots of puts, or a high put call ratio is a call for HBB to ramp the heck out of the market.
Therefore, this indicator is not saying "ramp up".

Earthquake on the New Moon

Funny, how we just prior this morning published about the Indian forecaster calculating that heavy rains and reservoirs but a wicked gravitational pulling moment on the earth, as well as being a load.

Well, not funny.   Number of earthquakes in last week is 92, that is low.  That means that there is energy of deformation stored up.   Closing my ES longs, keeping Nikkei short.

New Moon, Long ES from Thursday, playing Long Euro on a gap fill

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/us/31porkbelly.html?ref=businessHEY DROP a Comment Already.   Thanks.   And don't be afraid to KLIK some ADZ

As mentioned last week, this S&P500 aka /ES futures is (was) a very steep downchannel, went long Thursday, went longer Friday.

See my "Reluctant Long" post here
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/07/reluctant-long-keep-it-simple-at-200dma.html

Nice start anyway.   Euro is not following up yet.   

US Debt "straw man" solution only confirms more printing to come.  That means fundamentally, USD down, Euro up.   However, the winds can quickly blow against the Euro, based on the fact they are living on a series of fault lines and holding hands.




John writes some really good stuff on -- on Daneric Site

john- 2 hours ago
--Article titles - truth or misdirection.

Notice on my article comments I try to use accurate titles that reflect the feeling of the article. As many have read my style, most are comfortable that I do not try to mislead in the title but try to entice you to read the article. That is what titles used to be.

However in the political and financial news articles, titles are often used as a misdirection and may not represent the real feelings of the article or may be an outright lie misdirection. Many people and algos only read the titles. Care must be taken, especially now.

Also remember that often "What is NOT said is more important that what is said" look for what is missing that should have been included.

Good luck.

PORK Bellies -- so funny. Since 1983 we all heard about Pork Bellies from the movie Trading Places. But little did we know, what the heck is actually a pork belly? Well I had last night for the first time, pork belly in a slow cook with a bunch of veggies, and it was awesome.

Then today, I find that the futures market for Pork Bellies out of Chicago is now "gone away". What timing. Gives me some belief that I can be a contrarian. What a coincidence!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/us/31porkbelly.html?ref=business

Fires and Reservoirs and Earthquakes, Oh My!

Had no idea any mapping idea like this existed, kind of neat, I guess for fire managers (whatever that is).   Kind of like running a business in Hawaii, the government throws one fire after another at you.    They have endless energy and time to throw fires.   

http://firefly.geog.umd.edu/firemap/

This link was found on this other link here

http://predictingquakes.blogspot.com/

Which is a blogger that is relating earthquakes to earth weight changes and gravitational effects due to rainfall filling reservoirs.   Whatever, just pointing it out because it was interesting.   Could be something to it, but seems small compared to tidal movements of the oceans, and the moon itself.