Friday, January 18, 2013

Man up, prepare accordingly

Although it is entertaining to web surf and read doom and gloom scenarios that correspond to our own beliefs, here is the POINT!   We already know all we need to know in order to take appropriate actions to prepare accordingly.    Wasting time, or thinking that somehow by posting comments about "the system is effed up" that we are improving things.   

We already know enough.    Don't fritter away your time.   Don't have a zeal to try to sway people to align their beliefs with yours, except for a very small group which is both likely to be affectable, AND will help you in the future.
  • This from a poster on Zero-Hedge
  • Take Concrete Action to Align your Actions with Your Beliefs
  • Distance Yourself to whatever extent reasonable from all elements of the Broken System
  • Put your money where your mind is – financially support your deepest beliefs and convictions
  • Remove all but 10-15% of your net worth from the banking system/ financial markets
  • Take the Hit, and Close all retirement Accounts – and store the CASH yourself
  • CASH your paychecks – leave just enough in Small banks or Credit Unions to pay the bills
  • Become your own Central Banker – Put 10-20% of net worth in Physical Gold & Silver
  • Effectively Secure and Defend your Cash and Valuables
  • Limit your trading and investment exposure to financial instruments to 10-15% of net worth
  • Pay down all debts to whatever extent possible. ZERO DEBT is the ultimate goal.
  • Pay ALL credit cards used for convenience IN FULL each billing cycle
  • VOTE ONLY for LOCAL representation, especially for your local Sheriff’s
  • Don’t Vote in National Elections – What’s the point
  • Never fear expressing your 1st amendment rights in proper context and manner
  • Never abandoned the god-given inalienable right to defend your life and lawful property
  • Avoid the consumerism trap – Save and Spend money wisely and prudently
  • Conduct yourself like an enlightened gentleman of disciplined reason and sound conviction
  • Take all other Prudent Measures you deem necessary to align your actions with your beliefs
It's hightime for all macho "the-systems-fucked-whiners" to man-up and start conducting their affairs accordingly.

The Bankrupt Family Example

Read Below for the US Situation simplified
The large numbers are so staggering, that it is impossible to wrap your head around it.   The family example brings it down to earth.    So if you ever had doubts about your doubts about the position of the US, you can dispel those doubts (the ones about the doubts).

I wanted to preserve this summary from Simon Black of Sovereign Man, here is his website.    

January 18, 2013
Santiago, Chile

There's a funny take on the Fiscal Cliff floating around the Internet that several of our keen subscribers have passed along.

Like most things floating around the Internet, though, the details are inaccurate. So I've gone back and modified the parody with accurate numbers, and a bit more plot. What follows is 100% accurate based on 2012/2013 data:

2012 US Tax Revenue: $2,469,000,000,000
2012 Federal budget: $3,796,000,000,000
2012 Budget deficit: $1,327,000,000,000
US Federal Debt as of January 18, 2013: $16,432,620,067,491
Total interest paid on the debt in 2012: $359,796,008,919
Budget increase/decrease between 2012 and 2013: $38,500,000,000 INCREASE

Now... chop off eight zeros and imagine the same numbers for the Jones family:

Annual Jones family income: $24,690
Annual Jones family expenses: $37,960
Annual Jones family shortfall borrowed from friends and neighbors: $ 13,270
Total interest the Jones family paid last year: $3,598 (at practically 0% interest)
Total Jones family debt (mortgage, auto, credit card): $164,326
Change in Jones family spending this year: ++ $385

Not to mention, Aunt Bertha, Uncle Ned, and Grandpa are all coming to live with the Jones family this year... which is only going to increase household spending. And little Johnny, who is about to graduate from university, has no job prospects.

Further, the Jones family hasn't made any substantial changes to their lives... no jobs training, no skill development, no investment in education. Yet somehow they feel confident that their income levels will rise much faster than the debt.

Friends and neighbors who have loaned them money are starting to get nervous. But Papa Jones has put a plan together. He aims to cut the family's annual shortfall... so that, five years from now, they'll -only- be short $8,000 per year instead of $13,000.
He also insists that, because his great-grandfather was a hardworking professional with an excellent reputation, that the neighbors should just cut him some slack.

The extended family is also getting nervous... but Papa Jones tells them not to worry. They believe him because he is very charismatic and has a great jump shot.

A few projections:

1) The Jones family is obvious too ignorant to know that they're bankrupt. This ignorance is even more dangerous than their insolvency.

2) The kids are going to inherit all of this debt, and if they're lucky enough to find work, will spend the rest of their lives paying interest and supporting the rest of the family.

3) Friends and neighbors who have loaned money to the Jones family have had enough, and they are slowly beginning to reduce their exposure to this disaster.

4) Papa Jones is going to deal with this by grounding his children, raiding their piggy banks, and sending them next door to fight the neighbor's kids.

When you look at it this way, it really seems absurd. Yet it's true... a slow motion train wreck that you can see coming miles away.

This is why the principles of international diversification are so important-- you live in one country, your money lives in another, your business lives in another, you have an escape hatch in another, etc.

This 'multiple flags' lifestyle is a strategy that anyone can adopt. And it's one of the best ways to avoid ending up like the Jones kids.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Fear Factor

Lack of Fear has only been this low 3 times since the 2008 Debacle of Banker Theft.

And each of the first two times, Fear increased massively

Also check out the MACD of the Fear Factor, also very telling, days or weeks, but not more

NOTE TO SELF, buy some freaking puts tomorrow while VIX is low and puts are cheap.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NZD/JPY nice move down! and gold target 1850 end of March

After my call of the Bataan Death March Top, it was a nice fall off, now with a weak bounce to the 38 Fibo.

Monday, January 14, 2013

Overnight Big Action Risk Off, PM up

The Hawaii Trading ol' favorite, NZD/JPY flashed the "Death March Pattern" and we called it in real time.    Later that night, PM's took off like a banshee.

Hmmm....does it really matter what the "news" is?     Do we have to know more than what the charts are telling us?   

Bataan Death March on Risk

See next post for more explanation

Elliot Wave analysis

I just shorted NZD/ had that final Bataan death march look to it....after a double top, then a relentless rat-atat-tat pushing to a higher top....

Those crush the spirit of even the most die hard shorter.      My place to take a short...yes calling a top, and pretty tight stop.

Also just past the new moon, often time signals a change, and lately a drop.

US equities move in same direction as the NZD/JPY risk on risk off indicator, I use NZD because the AUD/JPY is more widely known and thus more widely gamed and stop hunted.   Organic risk with the zombie stop hunters.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Jobs since 2007 a very telling picture

OK, turning over a new leaf here...original charts!

This makes it very clear cut

The big job growth is in treating sick people and educating those who cannot find a job.

The big hits are in making things, building things, selling things, and moving those things around.


Home prices going up

There is no doubt, home prices are going up in Oahu and Maui. 5% to 10% over the last year or so, some areas even more, like the ritzy Hawaii Kai where people are once again getting into bid wars, one realtor reporting a property that sold $100,000 over the asking price of $800,000. Kauai and Big Island actually still dropped year over year, 4.2% and 1.1% respectively. Silliness once again. Who knows...maybe more people are just preferring to hold hard assets and pay back that debt with useless dollars, however, a house is not really an "asset" or certainly not an income producing asset.