Saturday, July 9, 2011

Charts the old fashion way, we stole them

From Bespoke, always interesting stuff there.
When Drudge has lots of headlines on financial topics,is when the market is falling a bit, it rarely keeps falling after the Drudge Indicator

So does this market have the oomph to run up?

Try this same report with some Elliot, you do the Fibo

So you Say Hawaii Trading, where is your original charts?!

Here is one eye opener, total importer nations and total exporter nations.

The Entire rest of the World Combined Total
Of the Exporters is $1,356B
Keep this number in mind when you here QE numbers like $1200B handed to bankers/brokers, who, instead of making loans to people and businesses,  then loaned it back to the government so the taxpayers could pay interest on money that was originally stolen from them anyway.

Friday, July 8, 2011

Euro Bond Yields Going Up

Lots of cool pages at the top, if you have never checked them please do so and drop a comment. No--they are not perfectly organized, just like my desk.

And drop a comment, sign up as a follower. Do something this visit.

ES pop the 78 Fibonacci Level, Nikkei with a Spinning Top

Nikkei with a Spinning Top Reversal

Slice of Life

Medical care is deteriorating, while provision of drugs is accelerating.

Went to the Doctor, for some minor stuff, and mentioned, oh, also got this rash on my arm, it almost gone but I rarely have skin problems.

He said, well I can prescribe some antibiotics in case it comes back.

We won't really run any tests on you until after 50 years old.

Your blood pressure was 120/88 which is not bad, but always good to cut down on salt and sugar, and well, you certainly don't need to lose any weight at 184 lbs.

Point One

Doctors like prescribing things, people must then feel that they are "getting some care".   Of course, I accepted the antibiotics even if it sits on the shelf until it expires.   It will be good to have in the emergency first aid kit.   It is good to have a supply of various prescriptions that you might use -- as extra's in your first aid kit, your "go-pack", and /or your shelter in place kit. 

At 184 I consider myself overweight.    20 years ago it would have been considered way overweight.   I think from like 1980 the supposed best weight for 5'10" was around 167 lbs.   In recent years I have been to 173 and that is a good target, my goal is 170 to 174.

Point Two

The whole standard for being overweight has gone way up.   Personally I saw the fattening of America as a direct correlation with the 9/11 attacks.   Stress compensation.   


They used to start running tests strictly on a "check up" basis at age of 40.   Now, Doc said, you have to have an existing ailment before they do any tests of any sort.    I said, what happened to preventative medicine, and he offered...if you have a history of any family medical issues, we can use that to justify testing.

Sub Point Three.....Doc knows it wrong to not do preventative tests, and he gave me the answer on how to get tested, just "remember" the problems in family medical history.   OK got it.

OK, Off to do a big bike ride with the dogs!   Friday Pau Hana!!!

State of the State

We did a solar repair for a lady, $400. 

Asked for check, she said account was low right now,

I told her she could backdate a week or so.

She said that wouldn’t help, she needed to put it on credit card.

She lives on house on big lot by ocean on North Shore.    She JUST built an art gallery in her house.

She doesn’t have $400 available.

EW calling for full tilt bear using futures

This is almost certain to get HBB to ramp the futures. 

A noted EW practitioner is recommending  a full-on bear position with as much leverage as possible, specifically recommending futures.

He is also recommending a stop level which would result in a $300,000 loss on a $500,000 account.

Hawaii Trading, reporting from some alternate realities of the financial system and financial newsletter system.  

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Trading Education

This link was sent to me by Steve C, a real Elliot Wave practitioner.

This is a one hour audio presentation by Mark Douglas

Mark is kind of old school, which is not bad, but I was irritated that neither he nor the interviewer knew what an automatic bracket order is.

Example from interview:

What factors cause people to stray from their trading plan.
1) Most people think self discipline is a personality characteristic.  But really it is just--

Discipline is the process of redirecting our attention back on to our goal.

Great use for radioactive land, PV farms

Charts for Thursday PM, NASDAQ Internal Trendline, and 50% channel line

Who's Who's of Awful Times to Be Short

Since 2004 only 8 times the Equity Put Call hit these high of levels on a daily candle as it did before the recent ramp up.   Hits 5 and 7 were accompanied by declines, but keep in mind, that was the great run down from 1300 to 666.   So that was very unusual.   I don't think the big banker brokers (HBB) like the idea of retail traders making big money on declines, that is supposed to be their territory

I will try to put this on my "Indicators" page as a permanent link, it takes around 15 minutes of messing around to do it, check here later on.

What this blog was for

I started this to record my own thoughts and charts and trade rational.

Also to document links to good sites, and other newsworthy stuff.

I always liked reading "A Dash of Insight", it was 1 of 2 of my "Bull all the time" blogs. They never once saw the crisis coming, and they never sold off during the crisis.

Now they state:
Investment Conclusion

Please note that my forecast is much more specific than the other sources.

How you trade the debt ceiling debate depends upon your time frame. If you agree with me that this will play out over the next two weeks, there might be a better buying opportunity.

Having said this, most investors (and many managers) have trouble chasing stocks after a big rebound. My own approach with recent new accounts has been to establish partial positions. There may be a further decline, but it is better to get started than to be caught completely flat-footed. I continue to believe that this is a good time to invest for those with a time horizon of a year or more.

How agile are you?

So he is basically calling a "bottom" here, he says, it might get a little worse, but since you guys are bad traders, we know you won't buy in once it starts going up --therefore buy in now before it starts going down (and then up, in the perfect world).

They rarely take a stand, they are taking one now.   Don't be caught flat footed.

What say you? Go all in long?   Leveraged 200%?   You would give poor Pretcher a heart attack!

I am going to hit them a bit the story, they are setting up the debt ceiling issue as the Straw Man, and that if they Straw man can be knocked down, that all problems are solved, and that the market can forge ahead  again for years.  

How weak is this?   Certainly to not recognize that there are other problems of significance is beyond foolhardy.   There is a chance the market keeps moving up for a year or 2.   Like 25%

There is also a chance the market drops 80% similar to the first great depression, say 25%. 

That leaves a 50% chance of "just plain sucking" dealing with reality of 30 years of too easy of money.    Heck even if the market goes up, that doesn't mean diddly to the average business owner or worker.  Unless you go "all in" long.

Business leaders are talking to Republicans.  And everyone knows this.  Wall Street pros are taking this in stride.  The average investor is the victim.
Well time will tell, but calling investors victims, because they are being caught flat footed (not all in), is an amazing thing to say.    

I kind of agree....this debt ceiling thing is a bunch of bull, it matters not.   We all KNOW that the US is already defaulting on it's debt by the greatest monetary expansion in history.    WE KNOW IT.  After the last crisis, our country has learned less than nothing.   Why less than nothing?   Because some of the wrong things to "know" have been reinforced.   Housing Giants are back, leveraged house loans are back, and people are forgetting that anything happened.  "A larger trial will be prepared".    Not sure about that, but I am sure that a larger trial will be needed to knock people upside the head enough to realize that serious changes in behavior are needed for a sustainable future going forward.   Any way that is not sustainable, will be unsustainable.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

NYMO small move, and long term funny-mentals

This NYMO chart is on my indicator page, every day updated.  Here is the link.   I would like to add more key items, to make it easy to review, i.e. don't miss the key elements.

Advertising revenue is way down, hardly enough to even buy Kona coffee, much less pay subscription services.   Ouch.   It is true, money is tight all over.   As a business with same phone number for 10 years, we get 20 to 30 phone calls per week of people marketing, well, what else, MARKETING.  Lord knows no one in America has any product to sell.   Oh wait, I get another 20 phone calls for people who want to sell me boxes of safety glasses, 50 at a time, made in China of course.  

NYMO - The McClellan, or I like to call McC because I am always afraid of spelling McC wrong
When it has a small move, say 2 is real small, 5 is pretty small, 8 is still small, then it predicts a big market move in 1 or 2 days, sometimes three.

It just had a small move.   Of 6 points.   

Also in chart below, mucho neuvo highs!   And very few new lows.   I guess that's bullish.

Economic Hit Man - Enslave with Debt

Greece faces severe restrictions on its sovereignty and must privatize state assets on a scale similar to the sell off of East German firms in the 1990s after communism fell, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said.

"The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited," he told Germany's Focus magazine in the interview released on Sunday, adding that teams of experts from around the euro zone would heading to Greece.

"One cannot be allowed to insult the Greeks. But one has to help them. They have said they are ready to accept expertise from the euro zone," Juncker said.

Greek being proud people, may be willing to be enslaved rather than "be insulted".

If you haven't read the book "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" you should.
Classic Methodology--over-promise, over sell, enslave with debt, then control to extract every last ounce of blood/money.

Lil PIIGIE Jumped over the moon

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Doc Copper looks tired, top of the Bernoulli Channel

Good charts Waimea!

 This can still be a "moon drop" see Wednesday

 Bucky, ought to have his real run up now.
 Proving once again the extreme irrationality of markets.

Buywrite Index as an indicator, FF, ACT

Surely, if you look hard enough you can find an indicator that says bearish.

This oldie but goodie ratio chart sure looks bearish.  I use the buywrite index on the NDX in my chart, although they have buywrite indices for many indices.

The term buy-write is used because the investor buys stocks and writes call options against the stock position. The writing of the call option provides extra income for an investor who is willing to forego some upside potential.
The BXM Index is designed to show the hypothetical performance of a strategy in which an investor buys a portfolio of the S&P 500 stocks, and also sells (or writes) covered call options on the S&P 500 Index.

Asset Class Total seems to imply that end of QE 2 is already baked in

Monday, July 4, 2011

Independence from the Great British Pound

This was just too tasty, I had to post.

Cable pinged off an important, and clearly defined Bernoulli channel.

This should drive down ES, and EURO is also following down, which has been the 8000 lb deception chimpanzee in the room--i.e. GBP and Euro have been manipulated opposite each other last week, very odd.