Thursday, July 7, 2011

What this blog was for

I started this to record my own thoughts and charts and trade rational.

Also to document links to good sites, and other newsworthy stuff.

I always liked reading "A Dash of Insight", it was 1 of 2 of my "Bull all the time" blogs. They never once saw the crisis coming, and they never sold off during the crisis.

Now they state:
Investment Conclusion

Please note that my forecast is much more specific than the other sources.

How you trade the debt ceiling debate depends upon your time frame. If you agree with me that this will play out over the next two weeks, there might be a better buying opportunity.

Having said this, most investors (and many managers) have trouble chasing stocks after a big rebound. My own approach with recent new accounts has been to establish partial positions. There may be a further decline, but it is better to get started than to be caught completely flat-footed. I continue to believe that this is a good time to invest for those with a time horizon of a year or more.

How agile are you?

So he is basically calling a "bottom" here, he says, it might get a little worse, but since you guys are bad traders, we know you won't buy in once it starts going up --therefore buy in now before it starts going down (and then up, in the perfect world).

They rarely take a stand, they are taking one now.   Don't be caught flat footed.

What say you? Go all in long?   Leveraged 200%?   You would give poor Pretcher a heart attack!

I am going to hit them a bit the story, they are setting up the debt ceiling issue as the Straw Man, and that if they Straw man can be knocked down, that all problems are solved, and that the market can forge ahead  again for years.  

How weak is this?   Certainly to not recognize that there are other problems of significance is beyond foolhardy.   There is a chance the market keeps moving up for a year or 2.   Like 25%

There is also a chance the market drops 80% similar to the first great depression, say 25%. 

That leaves a 50% chance of "just plain sucking" dealing with reality of 30 years of too easy of money.    Heck even if the market goes up, that doesn't mean diddly to the average business owner or worker.  Unless you go "all in" long.

Business leaders are talking to Republicans.  And everyone knows this.  Wall Street pros are taking this in stride.  The average investor is the victim.
Well time will tell, but calling investors victims, because they are being caught flat footed (not all in), is an amazing thing to say.    

I kind of agree....this debt ceiling thing is a bunch of bull, it matters not.   We all KNOW that the US is already defaulting on it's debt by the greatest monetary expansion in history.    WE KNOW IT.  After the last crisis, our country has learned less than nothing.   Why less than nothing?   Because some of the wrong things to "know" have been reinforced.   Housing Giants are back, leveraged house loans are back, and people are forgetting that anything happened.  "A larger trial will be prepared".    Not sure about that, but I am sure that a larger trial will be needed to knock people upside the head enough to realize that serious changes in behavior are needed for a sustainable future going forward.   Any way that is not sustainable, will be unsustainable.


  1. I didn't know Dash was still solvent. I guess it was just his "investors" who were the victims of the unforeseen market debacle.

    I see a very big deal being reached which will be the biggest tax increase in US history as well as the biggest reduction in spending in history. If I have my two sides of the same coin thesis correct they both need to get what they want to maintain a hold on their rightful ownership of their proportion of the electorate.

    The Tea Grouches are sure messing this up for them. I am fairly certain it has nothing to do with old school Republicans being disciplined after a 30 year pro growth in govt run. I don't know how many true Grouches are in Congress but it isn't enough at this point to prevent a deal.

    The big behind the scenes play is about the validity of the fiat currencies. I just read Prechters latest monthly, he says Senator Schumer introduced some legislation to outlaw the bitcoin (alt currency) "experiment". This is the most powerful empire to ever grace the planet. I repeat my warnings to NOT bet against Uncle Sam and his future.

    We are in a debt deleveraging cycle - K wave winter - the Fed knows it...duh. They are fighting it mostly appropriately from my eyes. I know EVERYONE hates to hear that one! They don't want to cripple govt spending at this point but will use the crisis at hand as an opportunity to take away future payments to subjects of the State to ensure their own longevity and  future. These guys aren't the dummies they play for you on TV.


  2. Hello,

    I'm the Finance editor at Before It's News. Our site is a People Powered
    news platform with over 2,500,000 visits a month and growing fast.

    We would be honored if we could republish the Hawaii Trading rss feed
    in our Financial Markets category. Our readers need to read what experts
    like you have to say.

    Syndicating to Before It's News is a terrific way to spread the word and
    grow your audience. If you are interested in syndicating with us,
    please contact me at 
    sean [at] beforeitsnews [dot] com

    Thank you


Insightful and Useful Comment!