Saturday, December 12, 2009

Chart of Charts 121109 -- Boneless Chicken on Hot Tarmac

In some unusual action the normally stable 20 Day Moving Average is

Flipping Around Like A Boneless Chicken on Hot Tarmac

There are alot of elements to this chart.  I know it is confusing, spend some time to review it.

On Sunday, I added in the Heat Map (now near the bottom 5 DMA chart), and the little dog started mouthing off too.....

Questions or suggestions appreciated, I will respond as time allows.  Sign up as a follower's just a click.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Quick thought on Elliot Wave theory

Elliot Wave can work sometimes, and the time that it is "clear" which is 1 of say 30, lay down large large bets.   When it stares you in the face....5 nice down, 3 nice enough up....welll, I would bet down and 3 times larger than normal.   You might only see this every few weeks, unless you are spending most of your time scanning through charts.  Even then, since markets and the components of them move together, often similar waves or lack thereof are painted on the tape.

There are some great chartists, esp in EW, but it can get carried away.  The counts keep changing, and somehow the newletter sellers are NEVER wrong.

EW also takes on a religious cult perspective.  Some EW'ers say that no news moves the markets....pure bunk.   News and fundamental changes to the overall fundamental CAN move markets and certainly sets up headwinds.

I have a GUT theory on human nature (Grand Unificiation theory), and it is greatly based on EW.   EW is not just about stock markets.  In the future I may present this GUT. 

And the market makers watch EW.  They game it, especially Hotchberg.  Prechter gets gamed also.  Early adopters to their market call are "the mark".

If you are sitting at a poker game and you don't not know who the mark is, it is probably you.   If you know you are the mark, does that increase your odds?

Three Peaks and a Domed House and CAR

I have been watching this 3 peaks thing for several months.  Fujisan first pointed it out.

Interesting that it is playing out....for now.  Off to do more solar tomorrow.  Limited time for market and comments / Posting.

And I have also been watching CAR......just saying.  Everytime I point a Boatload O' Bear Charts, we get a market rally.   So here is just one.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Surfing "Eddie Would Go!"

This is from the weekend, some pictures a friend took.  Ill be out doing solar most the day.  Will let Mr. Market tire itself out.

Fundamentals are horrendous.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Play of the Day -- More Bailouts

Hey that TARP sure worked good.  Let's not worry (or even discuss) the long term problems associated with printing $10 Trillion Dollars.   Let talk like $150 B of TARP did the trick. 

But I can see this happening again.  A rash of bank failures, followed by the the big boyz snapping up some assets on the cheap.   And another round of TARP because after all...the first one was proven to work well.

And by the way...all those toxic assets....well no one removed any from their balance sheet, they still fester.

How about the $650T of derivitives....still out there, somewhere, mostly unregulated.  What if there were 20% losses associated with those?  The margin calls would get very interesting.

Mortgage resets have been mild this summer, they are going to start in earnest again.   14% of people are behind on payment or defaulted.  That is alot.  That creates significant negative social mood. 

Just saying, nothing has really been fixed.  Perhaps even worse, a false sense of security that the old school playbook "works" has been built in.


Sunday, December 6, 2009

Janet Tavakoli -- Utube

Chart of Charts 120409

First Comment---is---hey---leave a comment!  Finally I edited the html for the blog and got Discus working as a comment system.   You can leave links to charts, other blogs, and its basically a full function comment tracking system -----  Give it a try....even just say "hey".

Now for Chart of Charts.......
Is the lack of information actually useful information?

This Chart of Charts is getting downright boring.  We are perhaps leaning a little to the bullish side, but overall the small number of chart patterns actually breaking out weights the heat map to a neutral condition. 

There is not that much going on, and the amount of charts ready to do something is also down quite a bit.   This would indicate less potential voltatility.  Slow frog boil into Christmas?

I am interpreting the Chart of Charts as keep your bets pretty small for now.  

CHECK OUT MY "MODERN" comment system, just implemented Discus today.  Please stop by and drop a comment.    They are trackable and indentable, as is proper for a real comment system.

Also why not click on the "follower" link, and you can be notified of new posts in a reader.

Bonds as Indicators - 5 Charts

These bond charts are all permanent links on the right side of my blog...

Sign up as a follower and then in your "reading list" you can see everytime I do a new post.  If you haven't checked out the "reading list", get on it.   Its very useful.

Here they are all screen capped for your convenience.

Letter to your investment advisor --Vote with your feet

So thinking in the spirit of Christmas, I was worried about all those Investment Advisors out there who might not get enough of a bonus.  After all, their cheerleading has helped this unbelievable recovery.  Then I thought...hmmm....they stole the taxpayers money, and then after continuing on a path of systemic risk, they are going to reward themselves with record bonuses, while many go hungry, homeless, live in fear of the future.

So, consider the following letter which you can use to send to the investor representative and CEO of your favorite bankster.

Gentlemen and Ladies,

In light of the fact that excessive leverage and speculation has again been under taken by those who do know better, and has again put our country and it's citizens under a strong threat of systemic risk. 

In light of the fact that 14% of all homeowners are missing their mortgage payments or are truly already in default, directly related to predatory lending practices.

In light of the fact that irresponsible "investing" advice has led to a massive transference of wealth which is nothing short of outright thievery.

In light of the fact that the monetary policies of the Fed, as enabled by vested interest financial institutions, and furthered by hundreds of millions of dollars of lobbying with the clear goal of corrupting the system, has resulted in a massive loss of purchasing power of our US dollar, thus penalizing those who have worked and saved responsibly, and rewarding those who engage in overly risky behavior.

In light of these facts, I believe it would be innapropriate for any US financial institutions to issue any large bonuses to their employees.  The greed and arrogance that would be represented by such a handout will be met with the following action:

If any employee of your company receives more than $30,000 bonus this year, I will be closing my accounts with your institution on January 10, 2010.  I will transfer all assets to financial institutions that did not exceed the $30,000 bonus price cap.

Please respond as to your intentions.