Friday, December 11, 2009

Quick thought on Elliot Wave theory

Elliot Wave can work sometimes, and the time that it is "clear" which is 1 of say 30, lay down large large bets.   When it stares you in the face....5 nice down, 3 nice enough up....welll, I would bet down and 3 times larger than normal.   You might only see this every few weeks, unless you are spending most of your time scanning through charts.  Even then, since markets and the components of them move together, often similar waves or lack thereof are painted on the tape.

There are some great chartists, esp in EW, but it can get carried away.  The counts keep changing, and somehow the newletter sellers are NEVER wrong.

EW also takes on a religious cult perspective.  Some EW'ers say that no news moves the markets....pure bunk.   News and fundamental changes to the overall fundamental CAN move markets and certainly sets up headwinds.

I have a GUT theory on human nature (Grand Unificiation theory), and it is greatly based on EW.   EW is not just about stock markets.  In the future I may present this GUT. 

And the market makers watch EW.  They game it, especially Hotchberg.  Prechter gets gamed also.  Early adopters to their market call are "the mark".

If you are sitting at a poker game and you don't not know who the mark is, it is probably you.   If you know you are the mark, does that increase your odds?

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