Sunday, August 16, 2009

Correlations to the Depresssion

Orig comment on Evil Speculator:
In one of her comments a couple of weeks ago, Fujisan suggested that she saw more similarities between 2009 and 1938 than with other bear markets.

FWIW, this weekend, a Barron's article mentioned the McMillan Analysis shwoing an 89% correlation between the two years [2009 and 1938]. 'For the record, a late-July top in 1938 saw a modest decline to a late-September bottom, after which prices skyrocketed to new yearly highs by November: 58% off the March lows of that year,' the firm said its research shows.'

steveo writes (then later lets see if he can back up his goals)
Hey Loonie, is the Loonie going up or down? Are you in Canada and what are conditions like in your neck of the woods.

One of my friends just hightailed it out of Canada and moved to Vegas were bookings were up 30% FWIW

OK it 1:27 PM here, by 2:00 PM I intend to collect the S&P data from 1938 and current data. Enter into a spreadsheet, and perform a correlation analysis. Then I will show the plots on the same chart, based on percentages. The charts will be posted to the great Evil site, and also to my blog. My blog will also shows the charts, and have links were you can download the actual Excel spreadsheet....Office 2007 sorry, get a convertor if you have earlier version.

I hate the he said, she said, they said, and Barrons is about as sketchy as Bloomberg public news these days. Slightly above McGraw Hill. 89% correlation is a massively high correlation...history doesnt repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!