Saturday, December 26, 2009

Chart of Charts and "Still All In" commentary

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I remember 1999, everyone was into stocks, it was normal cocktail party conversation, then the crash.  I was busy with work, and basically didn't see the benefit  of continuing to follow stocks, a combination of disgust and disinterest, which worked well until 2002/2003 bottom at which time it would have be great to have someone call and say....psst, by the way, market is heading back up.  But I really didn't pay it any mind until around 2004 seeing the obvious housing bubble.  I had one property go up 225% in less than 2 years....absurd, but enjoyable.

So here's the point:  This time the "crash" did not scare 80% of the traders from the market.   People in normal walks of life with "real jobs" still bring the subject of trading up to me, unsolicited.  Many I can't imagine as being traders.   Volume is falling off a bit, but still very strong.

Until a level of disgust is reached, this market will not "be over".  In fact why it will be different this time (well there are maybe 20 good reasons) is that people have now strongly been taught to buy and hold.  This may result in less panic selling.  But it can also result in "retail" holding on as the SPX blasts past 600, 400, 300....

Pretcher's "calls" are usually gamed heavily by HBB, but they come true after 4 to 8 weeks.   This time HBB is keeping the heat on....stealing more bear money and transferring more "assets" to unsuspecting retirement pension funds and the like.   But if Pretcher's call come through, there may be no place left to hide.  It won't matter if you are trading between asset classes, they will all be crushed except maybe Gold.

Chart of Charts
Not Much to say --- Tops can be a complicated affair.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!