It is now a commonly accepted fact, in my mind, that Black Swans are far more common than any commonly used prediction methods allow for. In other words, the risk assessment models used are flawed.
A 1992 policy guideline by the NSC also concluded core damage at one of Japan's reactors severe enough to release radiation would be an event with a probability of once in 185 years. So with such a limited risk of happening, the best policy, the guidelines say, is to leave emergency response planning to Tokyo electric and other plant operators.
185 years? A huh. Seems like more like 2 in 20 years, just in Japan.
In fact without even breaking out the tin foil hat, seems like roughly 20 to 30 radiation release events in the nuclear industry in the last 30 years. This is a rough assessment from my own reading.
Even though nuclear is a field of interest for me, most of these, except Chernobyl, Three Mile Island (TMI), and Fukushima have escaped my attention. Cover-up? Sure. Media control and downplay, sure.
Thorium is a no brainer transition from Uranium based nuclear power. Basically uranium was used because we needed plutonium for bombs. The industry grew up around uranium. Uranium has much higher dangers than thorium. We need something that is inherently more safe.
The answer is to force the industry into thorium. Contact all your State, Local, and Federal reps and educate them with a 10 second sound bite. Make your point quick and clean.
