Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Predicted a "scary drop" yesterday, Head and Shoulder on SPX Futures

On Tuesday I wrote

My operant thinking is a scary drop prior to the Rally into Christmas/New Years
Revisiting the S&P Future (ES), one can see an elongated Head and Shoulders Pattern with the Magenta line under the shoulders.

Amazingly, todays drop went right down to the shoulder level, and then bounced, now forming a bear flag.    I think to shake out some bulls, they need a bigger drop.

However this was useful in destroying a lot of potential value in Bull Calls, for expiry in 2 days.    For some reason, it is very important for the Marker Makers (aka Takers) to rule the options market, even though it is notionally smaller than the overall market by orders of magnitude.  

For the Brokers That Be, options are a quick way to make money, even some money from selling the premium, and then by moving monies on the indices to shakeout the options holders or at least get them to expire worthless.  

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Insightful and Useful Comment!