Friday, November 1, 2013

Currency Wars - Update on Euro, Cable, Aud

Currency Wars is a theory I came up with (as did others) around 2009 or a bit earlier.   I was buying Gold as early as 2006 when the housing boom must made me research and become convinced of the reckless house of cards the Powers that Be were placing all their bets on.   War theory-- Everyone fights to devalue their currency so their "exports" will be strong.....and so the drunken sailor bloated Governments can continue to spend to prevent civil unrest.

In Oct 2010, I wrote----
Currency wars are definitely in play.

Here is an Update on the Four major currency pairs, as you can see....lots of printing all around, but no effective change in the relations of the major currencies.
1) Euro
2) Japan
3) Britian
4) Canada
Of other important currencies, AUD and NZD, these are not part of the US Index.
Only NZD not shown here had any appreciable strength against USD, but NZD is chump change in the overall scheme of things.  

 And just for you, I made this pie chart that shows the relatives weightings of the currency pairs that make up the USD futures index.

SPX futures pinging off the Bernoulli 133 channel line

When the chart "pings" off an important channel line, that gives a lot of credibility to the channel.     Futures ES is shown here, with a perfect ping off the Bernoulli 133 channel line extension.  

Bernoulli channels (my creation) are like Fibonacci, but they take into account uptrends and downtrends, i.e. headwinds and tailwinds, organic buying and selling amidst the trading moves.

As predicted a few days ago, I expect a move to 1700 to the Bernoulli mid channel line, the B50.

Drop a comment, like to see some discussion and chat in here.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Risk Off Indicator Confirmed on Bear Flag

Posted this yesterday in real time, now broken.

How Does Bucky Look?

How does Bucky look?    In a solid channel for now, 1.75 years. 

Note this channel is my own creation the Bernoulli Channel.    It contains normal trading moves by channel line extensions, which also reflect the prevailing trend as a sloped channel.    Methinks this makes it superior to Fibonacci lines which are horizontal, and thus miss the point that there are tailwinds and headwinds on the market.

My early contention that we will have Currency Wars seems to be playing out.   No major currency is ramping or tanking in any way, but trading fluctutations on a mostly flat line.

Here is Bucky.    Note the bounce off the B100 channel line, and corresponding take down in Silver price, losing 5% in a day.    Metals are highly gamed in the "electronic" metal market.

And below is a bear flag on my Risk on/Risk off indicator the NZD/JPY.    This breaking down would support US equities down also.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Banana Republic

Idea from Zero Hedge
Definition from Wikipedia

In economics, a banana republic is a country operated as a commercial enterprise for private profit, effected by a collusion between the State and favoured monopolies, in which the profit derived from the private exploitation of public lands is private property, while the debts incurred thereby are a public responsibility. Such an imbalanced economy remains limited by the uneven economic development of town and country, and tends to cause the national currency to become devalued paper-money, rendering the country ineligible for international development-credit.[5] Such government by thieves is a kleptocracy; such a kleptocratic government is manipulated by foreign (corporate) interests, and functions mostly as ceremonial government that is unaccountable to its nation. The national legislature is, in effect, for sale, influential government employees illegitimately exploit their posts for personal gain (by embezzlement, fraud, bribery, etc.), and the resulting government budget deficit is repaid by the country's working people who earn wages rather than making profits.[5] you know any countries that resemble this?