Thursday, July 29, 2021

Dynamic Hedging on Commodity ETFs?


Interesting app, like to circle and maybe try it out The author was in Zero Hedge today, claiming how "we told you to buy coffee 2 months ago" and when you check the source you find that their only rational for going long coffee is that Bloomberg said there were shortage on coffee, lumber, and 8 other things, pretty much everything. LOL sorry that is not a reason to make a long call.

Friday, July 5, 2019

California Quake Swarm -- Unusual, and Deserving Great Attention - I'll Show You Why

stock here.

Great, after promoting a great chemtrailing video, and hitting on other Deep State censorship issues....Blogger has effectively killed my site of 8 years of hard work, intuition, exposing the shit that is controlling us, bleeding us, poisoning us, and even through natural causes, just endangering us.

And now the great quake swarm of 2019, we warned of July 1, with a Geoeffective Coronal Hole (GCH)

In the last 5 years there have been 2045 EQ over 2.5M in this area.   In the last 2 days there have been over 200 concentrated over one area, including a 6+ and 5+.

Note that the classic drawn fault lines do not appear to be the "correct" fault lines, AND California looks like more of a fault field than a strict line.

Coronal Hole on Sun, Geo Effective, EQ Warning for West Coast

First published on July 1
stock here.   2019 continues with little to no sunspots.    And a recent uptick in larger, say 5 and 6

Even Coronal Holes (CH) have been limited and tended towards the poles.   Equatorial CH like this one spinning (left to right) into "Geoeffective" range, i.e. earth directed indicate that in this unusual EQ era, we can expect some sizable EQ.  

The recent activity at the Blanco fault off the west coast, makes me think California could take a big one, as this hole "hits" Earth.
magnitude EQ, over say 10 days.

Look up the Blanco Fault on Google Earth or whatever resource, the 90 degree angle is very concerning in my view, nothing like that exists on earth for what I know.


Tuesday, October 31, 2017

TPTB War On Gold -- A Prediction About Fake Minted Coins

We know that "they" know that Gold is the primary store of value through the ages.    All the Fed
governors know and state this, at least at some point in their career.

But the "party line" has to be that Gold is just a barbarous relic.     It's a substitute for "fiat currency" and when I hear fiat, I think you can immediate translate that to "fake".

Fake news and fake money, all the rage these days.

Gold bars, even 10 ounce, or even 1 ounce, are "suspect" because without testing, you can't be sure that are are pure or the carat stated.

But Government issued gold coins are "sacrosanct".     So they are more valuable, they trade above the spot value of the metal in them.

But me smells a skunk coming.   Me thinks that governments will degrade some of their gold coins, using their own gold presses, and then release stories about counterfeit gold coins.

To degrade the value of gold coins.   To keep people focused on the "fake money" that they peddle. 

What say you?    Think it is the next step?  

stock out

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Short LEDs, Short Batteries, Technology History Tells A Story

stock here

Long time no see, eh?

Will be transitioning into a phase of getting assets to perform.   For me the strategy has been 100% income producing hard assets, and PM.    That mix may change, so starting to keep an eye on the markets again.

Saw this and thought it would be a good post.

Friday, December 30, 2016

65 Outrageous Lies by President Obama

A tool of the power elite, who presided over the most corrupt market, it's good bye and good riddance. It is still proper and necessary to expose this fraud. stock out Promoting Islam

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Censorship: Banned by ABC News In Just 2 Comments

ABC News will not tolerate any discussion that doesn't fit the meme they are trying to sell.

Banned in just a few minutes, sheesh!

Hawaii Trading: Outlook For Inflation / Federal Budget

I haven't been trading hardly at all.   Still consider the "system" to be completely manipulated.

However, it looks very promising to take a short equities position sometime between now and Inaguration.

It should be a "no brainer" that "they will want to tank the market to show Trump who really controls things around here.   

In terms of inflation: Government overspending is $1T on a $3T "budget".   That is the same as money printing.   Eventually it will show up.

Look at what could be cut from the budget, it adds to $2.5T over 10 years, or .25T yearly.    

But the deficit is 4 times higher, $1T.     So even with massive cuts, we can't get close to a balanced budget. 

Please note that these are on Paul Ryan’s agenda, Wisconsin Congressman and Speaker of the House. Some of this stuff I have never heard of. I do believe that the government should support the arts and humanities to some extent, but maybe not to the tune of 335 MILLION bucks a year!


A List of Republican Budget Cuts

Notice S.S. and the military are NOT on this list .

These are all the programs that the new Republican House has proposed cutting.
Read to the end.

* Corporation for Public Broadcasting Subsidy — $445 million annual savings.
* Save America ‘s Treasures Program — $25 million annual savings.
* International Fund for Ireland — $17 million annual savings.
* Legal Services Corporation — $420 million annual savings.
* National Endowment for the Arts — $167.5 million annual savings.
* National Endowment for the Humanities — $167.5 million annual savings.
* Hope VI Program — $250 million annual savings.
* Amtrak Subsidies — $1.565 billion annual savings.
* Eliminate duplicating education programs — H.R. 2274 (in last Congress), authored by Rep. McKeon , eliminates 68 at a savings of $1.3 billion annually.
* U..S. Trade Development Agency — $55 million annual savings.
* Woodrow Wilson Center Subsidy — $20 million annual savings.
* Cut in half funding for congressional printing and binding — $47 million annual savings.
* John C. Stennis Center Subsidy — $430,000 annual savings.
* Community Development Fund — $4.5 billion annual savings.
* Heritage Area Grants and Statutory Aid — $24 million annual savings.
* Cut Federal Travel Budget in Half — $7.5 billion annual savings
* Trim Federal Vehicle Budget by 20% — $600 million annual savings.
* Essential Air Service — $150 million annual savings.
* Technology Innovation Program — $70 million annual savings.
*Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) Program — $125 million annual savings..
* Department of Energy Grants to States for Weatherization — $530 million annual savings.
* Beach Replenishment — $95 million annual savings.
* New Starts Transit — $2 billion annual savings.
* Exchange Programs for Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, and Their Historical Trading Partners in Massachusetts — $9 million annual savings
* Intercity and High Speed Rail Grants — $2.5 billion annual savings.
* Title X Family Planning — $318 million annual savings.
* Appalachian Regional Commission — $76 million annual savings.
* Economic Development Administration — $293 million annual savings.
* Programs under the National and Community Services Act — $1.15 billion annual savings.
* Applied Research at Department of Energy — $1.27 billion annual savings..
* Freedom CAR and Fuel Partnership — $200 million annual savings..
* Energy Star Program — $52 million annual savings.
*Economic Assistance to Egypt — $250 million annually.
* U.S.Agency for International Development — $1.39 billion annual savings..
* General Assistance to District of Columbia — $210 million annual savings.
* Subsidy for Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority — $150 million annual savings.
*Presidential Campaign Fund — $775 million savings over ten years..
* No funding for federal office space acquisition — $864 million annual savings.
* End prohibitions on competitive sourcing of government services.
* Repeal the Davis-Bacon Act — More than $1 billion annually.
* IRS Direct Deposit: Require the IRS to deposit fees for some services it offers (such as processing payment plans for taxpayers) to the Treasury, instead of allowing it to remain as part of its budget — $1.8 billion savings over ten years.
*Require collection of unpaid taxes by federal employees — $1 billion total savings. WHAT’S THIS ABOUT?
* Prohibit taxpayer funded union activities by federal employees — $1.2 billion savings over ten years.
* Sell excess federal properties the government does not make use of — $15 billion total savings.
*Eliminate death gratuity for Members of Congress. WHAT???
* Eliminate Mohair Subsidies — $1 million annual savings.
*Eliminate taxpayer subsidies to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — $12.5 million annual savings. WELL ISN’T THAT SPECIAL
* Eliminate Market Access Program — $200 million annual savings.
* USDA Sugar Program — $14 million annual savings.
* Subsidy to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) — $93 million annual savings.
* Eliminate the National Organic Certification Cost-Share Program — $56.2 million annual savings.
*Eliminate fund for Obamacare administrative costs — $900 million savings.
* Ready to Learn TV Program — $27 million savings..
* HUD Ph.D. Program.
* Deficit Reduction Check-Off Act.

Monday, July 4, 2016

Insurance Against Chaos: How To Invest in Gold and Other Precious Metals

A friend had asked "how do you buy gold" and I did a write-up for him, and for your benefit also.    I have quite a bit of experience.

This article is how I buy Precious Metals (PM)

The comments immediately below were originally written in 2013.  

With the continued shenanigans in the EU and Cyprus, including the threat of direct theft from insured bank accounts (bail ins), well just about anything goes.

Any form of "electronic wealth" is suspect--easily diverted / stolen at a keystroke.

Owning hard assets in a potentially deflationary world (aka Pretcher / MISH) could result in large losses, however with the whole world running their printing presses to Kingdom come, the chance of deflation seems no-brainer low.

Suggested Inflation Hedges

1) Ownership of Physical Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
2) Direct Ownership of Oil Wells
3) Direct Ownership of Solar Electric producing assets
4) Ownership of Real Estate, especially income producing real estate.
5) Direct Ownership of a business that can last through recession and inflation.


FOR HOW TO BUY PRECIOUS METALS --- Here it is in a nutshell:  

  • One Ounce gold Bars
  • Junk Silver, pre-1964 dimes, quarters, halves
  • Platinum and Palladium in 1 ounce coins, the only real choice is Canadian Maples

  1. Junk silver up to $15,000 or 15% of your overall "Stack"
  2.  The rest in Gold Bars and then some Canadian Maple Coins or Krugerrand Coins.
  3. Allocate up to 10% of your total stack in Platinum and Palladium
Stay away from numismatic collector coins, they all have “good stories”, just stay away unless you are a real coin collector.

GENERAL COMMENT -- BUY THE MOST METAL YOU CAN--What I mean by that is get the most for your money.
Whatever PM you buy, always look at markup over spot price of the metal (use futures for spot price).  Get the most metal you can! 
Finviz is an OK place for futures spot price.
Always try to get the most metal for your money, with smart shopping.

Don’t be impressed with coins that come with a high markup (aka premium) over spot like the American Eagle gold coins.   On the Eagles sell price $1688 when spot is at $1614, that’s a big premium.  Also watch out for shipping and insurance costs, the good dealers I recommend are always reasonable on this, unscrupulous ones may hit you with a big cost that effectively raises your premiums.   Oftentimes, orders over $10,000 or $20,000 will get free shipping and insurance, but the shipping and insurance is not really large anyway, you shouldn't pay more than $25 or so

For starters, get $5,000 to $15,000 in pre-1964 silver dimes and quarters, this is called JUNK SILVER and there is nothing junky about it.  A quarter is roughly worth $6, a dime is 2/5 of that, around $2.50 for notional thinking.    You need this for barter and making change in the coming New World Disorder. (NWDTM)
Junk silver is sold by “Face Dollar”, so a Face Dollar of Quarters would be 4 quarters, or 10 dimes.   The weight of silver in dimes and quarters is exactly proportional to the USD face value of the coin.    10 dimes has exactly as much silver as 4 quarters.
A face dollar of either Half Dollars, quarters or dimes will be around .715 ounces of Silver depending on the wear on the coins, although it won't vary much.
Silver is heavier than you would think.   You can’t put $20,000 in a backpack, grab your bug-out bag, and just hit the road.    For notional thinking, Gold is about $25,000 per pound, so you could easily transport $100k of wealth.
Silver also comes in
  1. Government minted coins (credible but higher markup)
  2. “Rounds” which are round coin like objects but that aren’t minted by a Government, these are sold at lower premium, but in a Mad Max world you might have issues “proving” them to be real.    
  3. 10 ounce bars, very cool, roughly $200 notional, stack well.   You can also get 100 ounce and even 1000 ounce bars, but there is no benefit or need to own such large bars, simply ask yourself, what possible upside could they hold compared to the 10 ounce bars.  

Many people are recommending a higher percentage of silver in your portfolio than gold in dollar value.    I do not agree with this.    Their theory is  because the long term ratio of gold to silver pricing is high, that silver can appreciate more than gold.   But silver is also “poor man’s gold” and the poor man is “retail” and retail panics when things get a little sketchy.    Also silver does not make it easy to transport serious wealth, whereas gold does.  

Your main choices are Government Minted coins and little 1 Ounce bars.    

There are also large bars, but why get a large bar?   For ego?  There is no real benefit in getting large bars, and bars may need a certification when you sell them.   There have been a few instances in which Tungsten was put into the middle of the Gold Bar.  Tungsten is almost exactly the same density as gold, its just .02% heavier than gold, so they can hide it inside the gold.

The bars have a lower premium than the coins in general, as low as $16 over spot, although that low is rare, under $30 premium per ounce is normal.   Also the bars have one benefit that you may not think important at this time, but it may be very important in the future.   Gold in the form of a “monetary instrument” has different reporting requirements when transporting out of country. 
Many experts say that you should diversify the country in which you hold assets, indeed, why put all your eggs in one basket?   For sure, all countries will competitively devaluate their currency until some event causes them to stop printing money and devaluating their currency, AND they will also try to prevent wealth from leaving their country, AND the US will beat all other countries over the head with financial and military might.  
On the other hand it is also good to have a bunch of gold close to you.    Gold storage is a complex matter, and not part of this treatise.
Some gold coins are .9999 pure gold.   The only problem with this is that pure gold is soft and it may get scratched in “use”, but how much use are you really going to do?   How often are you going to have a $1600 coin kicking around in your pocket.
1)      The US Eagle is 22 carat, it has 91.67% gold, 3% silver, 5.33% copper
2)      The US Buffalo is 24 carat, or 99.99% pure gold, it will scratch more if that is a concern, and premiums vary quite a bit.  For a pure gold coin, I am going to go with a Canadian maple, which sells with a lot less premium.
3)      Canadian Maple – 24 carat, or 99.99% gold, great coin, great credibility, reasonable premium over spot
4)      The “Krug”, or classic Krugerrand from South Africa.   A great coin with some of the lowest premium on well regarded gold coins.   The Krug is 22 carat,  91.76% gold the rest is copper, an alloy known as “Crown Gold”.   It does contain a full ounce of Gold though.
5)      There are others, the Austrian Philharmonic, and the Chinese Panda.   I think the Panda looks silly and have no interest in supporting China’s PM market.

Gold Bars
These are the lowest premium of all gold products ($16 over spot is the best I have seen this decade, $30 premium is normal).   Buy always the 1 Ounce bar, larger bars are for ego or seriously large portfolios (over $10M). 

  1. Perth Mint,
  2. Austrian Credit Suisse, 
  3. Royal Canadian Mint, and the 
  4. Pamp Suisse are all you need to know.
Platinum and Palladium Coins: 

Why not?  Diversify a bit, I bought platinum in November 2012 when one of my recommended dealers had a good bull session with me and stated “I like being diversified into a metal that is produced in a volatile country like South Africa”.   Indeed, just days afterwards, a violent strike hit a major producer in South Africa and the metal surged.   The Canadian Maple Platinum has a reasonably low premium, it is a $50 “face value” as a real Government coin, worth around $1700 in minted cost.   A premium around $60 per Maple is normal.  For Palladium, the premium is around $30 per Maple.   

The PGM Platinum Group Metals are not "monetary metals" per se, so they may not be as useable in a SHTF Armageddon scenario, however, I am assuming that after Armageddon, that some normalcy will return in my lifetime.
Some have suggested that jewelry is a good investment, although the “minting” value of jewelry often takes the price far beyond the “melt value”.    I don’t buy into this jewelry thing, as proving the purity could be quite troublesome in the future.   There are methods of testing purity, which involves putting acids on your gold, and there seems to be no need to cross this bridge.   There are also electronic testers, which are brutally expensive, and just silly to even consider unless you were a large dealer.
24 karat (millesimal fineness 999) – almost pure gold- These carat weighting apply to coins also
22 karat (millesimal fineness 916)
20 karat (millesimal fineness 833)
18 karat (millesimal fineness 750) – 75% pure gold
15 karat (millesimal fineness 625)
14 karat (millesimal fineness 585)
10 karat (millesimal fineness 417) – 41.7% pure gold
9 karat (millesimal fineness 375)

Copper (Don't buy copper as a speculation)
There are companies selling copper bars, with insane large markups over spot.  Personally I think this is a silly form of speculation, especially given the insane markups.   The bursting of the Chinese housing bubble will pressure copper for a long time to come.  Housing is 40% of all copper use.   At $3 per pound, compared to silver at $480 per pound, and gold at $25,000 per pound, those PM’s are much more practical.    Although I did scrap some 16 solar panels, and turned the copper into 2 nice shiny gold coins!
Copper pennies---I don’t roll up my pennies, I put them into vases that get really heavy.   I did a representative sort for kicks, the 1909 to 1982 pennies actually are worth 2.23 cents in melt value, the 1983 to current pennies are actually 95% zinc, 5% copper and have a melt value of  0.48 cents.
I got 819 grams of pennies in my sample
1983 and later was 615 grams, 198 pennies or 75.1%
1982 and earlier was 204 grams, 65 pennies or 24.9% and one of these was a “wheaty” believe it or not.
At 3.11 grams per penny, my sample size was 263 pennies.  1 Wheaty.
198*.48=95 cents
65*.223=145 cents
Total value of 263 pennies in 240 cents face value, sheesh!   I don’t think sorting pennies is a real business model, however, why not keep them?   It cost more money to get rid of them in time and gas!


There are certain types of transactions that require the PM dealer to report to the government in PM transactions.   The reportable transactions are very rare.   Some dealers will report only the essential reports, and other dealers will come right out and state that they WILL be reporting your transaction almost all the time.    Which do you prefer?   You should read the dealers policy and question them when you call in to buy.    There will be tax consequences when you sell, if you ever sell.   Gold and silver are generally treated as a collectible with exceptions, and subject to a high 28% Capital Gains tax rate. 


--Got to admit, the tax issues are complex and I have spent a few hours at different times trying to get a handle on it.    I saw this on a retirement website, now people are holding PM's inside 401k and IRAs, I have no idea the physical logistics of that.    

There are exceptions . Certain bullion coins issued by the U.S. (generally the American Eagle gold, silver, and platinum coins) and any coins issued by any of the states are not collectibles. Also gold, silver, platinum, or palladium bullion are not collectibles when the metal equals or exceeds the minimum fineness required under a regulated futures contract and is in the physical possession of a qualified trustee.

Clear as mud?   Yep, let me know when you got it figured out.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Hawaii Trading is BACK with a Bullish Copper Call

Aloha, to one and all.    I needed to re-invent myself and it took a few years and worked well.

Just saw this today, and it looked like a post.    I would also recommend looking at silver, seems like all the PMs are taking their turns with a spike up, and then usually a slough off to shake out the weak hands that jumped in late in the spike.   Same as always, inflict max pain on max participants.

Another Epiphany occurred to me yesterday.    One reason that so many thinking people are extremely pissed off in USA?    Because we need to spend 20% to30% of our entire efforts in researching, planning, and acting just to mitigate damages to ourselves from incredibly misguided government policy including corruption.  

How much real wealth, and health, could we be creating if we didn't have to waste such time mitigating damages?

Graphic from Zerohedge

Sunday, October 4, 2015

A Neo Politcal Rant About the Washington Redskins


An Asian-American rock band called The Slants asked a federal appeals court last week to trademark its name even though the government says it disparages Asians.

The group argued before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Friday that it has a First Amendment right to trademark the name because offensive speech or ethnic slurs cannot be censored by the government, Reuters reported. The case is being watched closely because it could affect an appeal brought by the NFL’s Washington Redskins after its trademarks were canceled by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office on the grounds that the team’s name disparaged Native Americans.

stock here:

Indeedy there.   Yeah, that Washington Redskins name could be offensive.    After all, since around 1820, pretty all the Indians were kicked out from the east to west of Mississipi by Washington, although a few stuck around in Wisconsin until the 1850's and even after the "treaties" at the point of a rifle, a few Indian groups such as the clan of Chief Kewauskum (now a town in Wisconsin) stuck around until 1890 and travelled freely, having a primary camp at Pike Lake.    That's a whole different story....

All that aside, a consultation of 300 Potawatomi Indians has stated that yes indeed, they feel the name Washington Redskins to be disparaging and they are filing a motion as an intervenor to change the name to "The Redskins" and restore the trademark status, as well as royalty rights over the prior name.

 Well that is a joke, but a irreverent but relevant joke.    stock out.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Doctor Copper Could Be Signaling a Large Move

MISH had this posted up with thoughts of a "breakdown" in copper.

Turns out MISH was 100% correct!