Friday, March 18, 2011

Nuke update

Tokyo Electric also revealed that an emergency diesel power generator at the No. 6 reactor has been restarted and that the pumping of water to the fuel rod storage pools at the No. 5 and No. 6 reactors has been resumed. Both reactors had lost their cooling capabilities.Saturday, March 19, 2011 11:11 +0900 (JST)
"Divide and conquer" eliminate minor hazards from becoming major hazards.   Good work!

Heck, even the Yakuza are helping....after all they have a heart, and they know that how can you skim graft off of a broken country.   Trust me, Japan will be back.   They have education, a code of law, resources, and a great work ethic.

Yakuza helping!

PS --way at the bottom I have a bunch of links that inquiring minds may wish to review.

Now the other 4, in which various explosions have happened and it is clear that containment vessels and suppression pools have been breached (blown up) in some of them.

Spraying water from the outside is a stopgap measure at best, and may not work in some cases.   The spent fuel and working fuels rods will continue to generate more heat through a fission process --- until they are brought fully under control.   So spraying water generates radioactive steam, and then they heat up again, so they can spray more, and generate more radiation into the atmosphere.

If the fuel rods overheat, they can get to around 5000F and just melt through steel.  

But what amazes me is that so much faith is being put into the "new electric lines", and there is no discussion of any other plan.    Why would any thinking individual have any faith the electrical wiring, control systems, motors, pumps, and piping systems inside the blown up reactors buildings have any chance of functioning properly to "kill" the reaction.    The odds seem like single digit percentages.

As you can see below, the suppression pool has many scientific principles---and our "experts" continue to exhibit an arrogant confidence -- after all they are the "best engineers" around, and convinced that their own efforts are infallible.    They don't think about the black swans, and I wonder how good this design functions when it is blown up in a hydrogen explosion.  
Pressure suppression pool mixing in passive advanced BWR plants
$ 31.50

References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.

Robert E. GambleCorresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, a, Thuy T. Nguyena, Bharat S. Shiralkara, Per F. PetersonE-mail The Corresponding Author, b, Ralph Greifc and H. TabataE-mail The Corresponding Author, d

a GE Nuclear Energy, 175 Curtner Avenue M/C 365, San Jose, CA 95125, USA

b Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1730, USA

c Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1730, USA

d Japan Atomic Power Company, 1-6-1 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan
Received 5 July 2000;
accepted 5 July 2000
Available online 11 April 2001.


In the SBWR passive boiling water reactor, the long-term post-accident containment pressure is determined by the combination of noncondensible gas pressure and steam pressure in the wetwell gas space. The suppression pool (SP) surface temperature, which determines the vapor partial pressure, is very important to overall containment performance. Therefore, the thermal stratification of the SP due to blowdown is of primary importance. This work looks at the various phases and phenomena present during the blowdown event and identifies those that are important to thermal stratification, and the scaling necessary to model them in reduced size tests. This is important in determining which of the large body of blowdown to SP data is adequate for application to the stratification problem. The mixing by jets from the main vents is identified as the key phenomena influencing the thermal response of the suppression pool and analytical models are developed to predict the jet influence on thermal stratification. The analytical models are implemented into a system simulation code, TRACG, and used to model thermal stratification behavior in a scaled test facility. The results show good general agreement with the test data.
Article Outline

1. Introduction

2. Suppression pool transient phases and analysis
2.1. Vent clearing

2.1.1. Buoyant jet characterization

2.1.2. Forced turbulent jets

2.2. Noncondensible/steam injection
2.3. Steam discharge jet

3. Scaling
3.1. Scaled test facilities

4. Application using TRACG
4.1. Model implementation
4.2. Calculations and results

5. Conclusions


Appendix A. Nomenclature


Breakpoint Trades Buy Signal (from the Vix)

This is just an example of some of the intraday posts that the guys at Breakpoint Trades make. They have 2 traders Steve and Matt, who are nearly always trading during the day, really trading their own money while providing real time analysis and alerts.  

I just can't say enough about this site--- Breakpoint Trades.   Over 2 decades I have seen and bought into just about every kind of trade service you can imagine, and BPT is the only one I have stuck with.   It is the only one that consistently makes me money, got it? 

I am promoting them?  Sure thing.    And if you sign up for a membership, use the link on the left side of the blog---they extend my membership--and that helps bring ideas here for everyone.

Occasionally I will post some of their trade ideas, indicators.   I will never post the mechanical trading systems and other really proprietary stuff that they offer only to members.   They have a free 2 week membership, which you can try if you want.

Also they are seriously talking about raising their rates, $40 a month.   Amazing when you consider the quality and costs of some other "newish" pay blogs, like Evil Speculator or Hot Options Babe which charge more and provide less.    It's a no-brainer, BUY A TRADING EDGE.   Sheesh, one trade idea, even using only $5000 in the trade can easily pay for the best deal --the 6 month membership. 

And top secret--Matt has come up with an index trade system that blows the doors off of any other system I have seen.   I have seen the trade results, and it rocks through bulls and bears....I told Matt that he has to be careful about that prints money so consistently that it could be considered counterfeiting :)

He has not released the system for sale, and is talking about releasing only to existing members.  

Armageddon Trade

Armageddon Trade--a gamble that there is way more downside possible than upside.   I did enter this trade, short ES futures at Friday market close.

The G7 currency is tough to model, really impossible for me.  

Also this weekend a "Super Moon", big gravitational pulls, big tidal effects.   As Japan's nuclear mess teeters.   Be careful what you wish for if you desire to live in interesting times.

Also, below, a message from Arch Crawford, a real Astro and technical guy.   He did go bullish in Spring 2009, I know for sure, I called his number on a Sunday and he answered and gave me about 10 minutes of perspective.  

Arch indicates chance for huge earthquakes, but rationally, I believe that very much energy has already been expended with 526 earthquake over 4.0 in the last week, there is usually 60 to 90 and it goes in cycles.   This is a spike I have never seen before.   Get your tripod ready for some great moon pictures.  I post some on the weekend.

CONSULTING CLIENTS  [current and former]
THIS SATURDAY [March 19], we get another SUPERMOON that is bigger/meaner than the Feb 18 instance! It will be the largest Tidal Forces in over 18 years.
Please remember that the Tides exist in the Ground as well as the Water. Some of the largest ever quakes have been on or very near these SuperMoons.  Many have also passed without powerful effects.  We consider the current set-up to be especially difficult with the planetary pictures adding to the significance and the effects we have already seen from the lesser Full Moon on Feb 18.  The Tidal Forces do NOT cause earthquakes, but they can trigger them on fault lines that have built up significant plate techtonic pressures.
 Remember that psychics Edgar Cayce and Jeanne Dixon said in the late 40's & 50's that JAPAN would SINK BEFORE CALIFORNIA SINKS!!!
Jim Berkland, being interviewed on FOX NEWS gives a time window for greatest danger from March 19-26.                                                                                                                                 Earthquake Prediction 2011 Jim Berkland - A Major Earthquake in North America Imminent                                                                                                                                      

In addition:
 On April 3, there will be a Mars/Uranus conjunction ON THE PLACE of Uranus in the Cardinal Climax chart - touching off the whole damned thing in a really powerful way!
 Every contact with it so far has brought devastating natural disasters.
20 Million were displaced from their homes by WATER in Pakistan and China the week of the original CC.
 When Eclipses activated it in late Dec - early Jan = 22 towns were Under Water in Australia.
 The Uranus touches the Zero Cardinal degree March 11, and WHAM!
 That's is a tremendously powerful record to date for the CC!
 My only disappointment is that they did nothing to our markets because the government interference held it together, NOT that that is bad in itself, but the cumulative printing of money for every occasion will take our whole system down when it goes, most likely from external events that the Central Bankers cannot control.   LIKE NOW!!
We have mentioned in former CP newsletters that we respect the Mormon tradition of keeping two years worth of Food and Water in their homes.  Add to that necessary medicines, extra gas, and sufficient Currency [including old silver coins].
 That's MY take on things.
 All best regards.   Arch Crawford

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Chart of all things, compared to Nuke rants

Translator added to Blog!

I added a translator to the blog, it's in the upper right.

Japan Nuclear Continued

Japanese are much less prone to ranting or being critical of their government.  However, now there are news releases with nuclear engineers (Japanese ones) stating how the situation has been mismanaged from the get-go, also that the "50 Heroes" have likely been sent to their death, whether that be in 3 days or 3 years.

This is in Japanese, noted they are very low-toned and understated, that is the Japanese way, even when ripping into the government and utility with a passion.    He says, engineers should be running this, not any politician or company owner.   This is simple physics, wishful thinking and customer expectation management does not get the job done.  Bravery alone will not get the job done, bless the souls of the 50 or 70 Heroes.   There will be hundreds or thousands more that have to expose themselves to long term risk before this is all done.   And that is the volunteer workforce, not the nearby population.
Check out this thermal imaging drone plane going to Japan from Guam to help.   It is neat, it will help.
But I am amazed that they haven' installed basic instrumentation, temperature gauges, cameras.  Even if the original systems are all completely gone, setting up this basic instrumentation, even with wireless signals to an ad-hoc command post is a no-brainer.   From the get-go - the information and the stories haven't added up to anything that makes sense.

The likely end game now is "concrete entombment" for a century or so.   This will be very problematic to place the concrete.    If the radioactive "blob" gets into the ground water or the ocean, then I can't really imagine the fix for that, except I would envision BP's ocean robots coming into play.

And here is a Wind website

Link to Japan Windmap

I also will add a translator to this blog.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Fear Factor, and the usual suspects

Fear Factor, one of my favorites.  Why does it work?   Who knows and who cares?   It does work and it paints nice lines. 

Fear just went way up even though stock prices are continuing to be supported by the Fed and the merry band of printers.

 Check out this stop sweep on nikkei futures.   Looks like Japan got some HBB consultants.   My advice, stay focused on the nuclear, and dropping food and water purification tablet by air, everywhere!

Hawaii Trading entire article quoted on Zero Hedge

Check it out, that pretty cool that Zero Hedge picked up my article on the Japan Nukes


Nuclear Japan, Stock market "holding up", Pictures of 'Reactor' 3 and 4

I have continued amazement that very few photo from "on the ground" have been released from day 1.   It seems that the plants would have many cameras built in, and those systems destroyed by the quake or blast could be replaced with quickly set up cameras and/or robots.

This picture says volumes...."Reactor 3 and 4" are not really facilities anymore, as opposed to smouldering masses of twisted metal.

From my continuing research, Chernobyl radiation release was pretty bad, and resulted from direct fire on the uranium and by-products.   Now they say that has already happened in Japan (perhaps).  See below for "Spent Fuel on Fire?!" which is still not 100% clear in my mind.

A scenario in which molten reactor materials -uranium--"perfectly" wraps around a pool of water, causing a super-heated explosion of steam launching radioactive materials in a massive blast is the "worst" case scenario, but what are the odds of this perfectly happening, perfectly wrong?   Very small is the general consensus and I believe that one.   Maybe in the range of 1%, NOT 10%.
What about a 5000 degF mass of molten reactor materials (let's just say uranium, although stuff morphs into other stuff that can be worse) melting it's way through a damaged concrete floor, into a pocket of water or sea water below the plant, or rolling right into the ocean?   Purely conjecture, but these are the mostly likely worst case scenarios IMHO.

And the Chernobyl type scenario, direct fire on the nuclear materials or, even worse, on the "used" nuclear waste that was being stored at reactors 4, 5, AND 6.    Prior to last night, we never even heard of 5 or 6, now we find that rather than store the waste materials underneath a big mountain like in western united states, that they decided last fall to store all the old materials in the facilities next to the working nuclear plants, on the ocean, on the ring of fire.

From a Russia Expert on Chernobyl, and the storing of nuclear spent materials--
Chernobyl Expert slams storage methods

"Spent Fuel on Fire?!"  --this is not clear, but seems quite possible.

Link below is from UN Nuclear Agency saying that indeed a spent fuel pool was in a fire at Reactor 4, review the picture above.  Indeed that article below is very clear that the fire was at the spent fuel pool, and that is what caused a huge release of radioactivity.

Spent Fuel Pool in a Fire

Corrections, further misinformation, and Pot Shots---
So someone says the fire was at the spent fuel (that would be very bad), and then someone else says...No, that fire was from an oil leak from a pump--and then points to a link---of which when you check the link, says nothing about the location of the fire, just that it was put out in 2 hours.  The second link also states how they tried to add water to the #4 spent fuel pool--and failed.   These spent fuel pools have 16 feet deep water over the top of the used fuel stored in them.   FOR CONVENIENCE, these pools are located at the roof level of the containment buildings!  What is there was a massive earthquake and the building was cracked, and the water leaked out!   What if the containment building also blew up due to hydrogen explosion.

Here is a direct download described how the used fuel is stored at Fukushima - very scary and enlightening READ IT
Here are the links to the "Corrections" comment -- the Pot shot part

Here is the problem: The Authorities are very concerned with all out panic.  The Japanese people have strong morale values, and do not just "lose it" like would happen in most places already.   But at some point, if they reach the breaking point, it could be a very strong social reaction.

The governor of Fukushima prefecture, Yuhei Sato, criticised official handling of the crisis, telling Japan's NHK TV: "The anxiety and anger being felt by people in Fukushima have reached a boiling point."

So-the authorities want calmness, they don't want to instill panic.   And thus they feel it necessary to withhold information, which has obviously been withheld from the very beginning.  Also the classic example of "Denial"....maybe it is not as bad as we think it is...example...."maybe it is just a coincidence that 4 airplane are off course and not communicating on 9-11-01".    Denial, and hoping to avoid being "chicken little" should the situation not be as bad as you think it may be.  Very closely related to Denial is "Hope".   Hope is a double edged sword, without hope --the will to take effective action can be curtailed, but the wrong hope, the ability to see the need for action can be blocked.

From the Emperor of Japan who rarely speaks in public, but is highly respected.

"I am deeply concerned about the nuclear situation because it is unpredictable," he said. "With the help of those involved I hope things will not get worse."

Please read this quote below and then look at the picture at the top of this post.

Nuclear experts have repeatedly stressed that radiation releases on the scale of Chernobyl are unlikely or even impossible, given the Japanese plant’s heavier engineering and additional layers of containment. Still, Tokyo Electric said radiation briefly rose to dangerous levels at the plant Tuesday morning and again on Wednesday.
Above from the Washington Post

But people have to make real decisions.   Do we encourage our family in Tokyo to leave at any cost, whatever it takes?   Transportation is difficult, most trains are running, there are blackouts on a regular basis.    Just how bad is it, how bad could it become?   Yesterday the winds were blowing the radioactive steam and such across the mainland of Japan, today the winds are blowing westerly across the Pacific.

 And there-in lies the dilemma, all based on poorly provided information, does one recommend drastic action?  Indeed, I would flee...the cost of fleeing may be fairly dear, but the cost of staying and have the worst or second worst or third worst scenario play out may be a very very high cost.

Finally, something to think about, here is one that appears to be a few days old, from and MIT nuclear "expert" stating in these excerpts--
Well, first off, we can't have a Chernobyl-like situation. The system is designed so that as long as we keep water in there to keep it cool, nothing will happen.
Hypothetically, if the water all boils and evaporates, then the fuel will stay molten and eventually melt through the steel vessel. But that's already beyond a hypothetical worst-case scenario for me. 
Then you have the other containment vessel, with a concrete faceplate underneath that's between four and 10 feet thick. But melting through that is hypothetical beyond normal reasoning.
And then, worst comes to worst, there are pumps that can take water from the local cooling water supply, in this case the ocean, and just pump water in there. As long as there's water in there, it might be expensive for the utility to get it cleaned up, but everything is going to be fine.
It might be a financial disaster, but no member of the public has been hurt, and I doubt anybody will be.
 Here is a link to that MIT "Expert" -- he is already proven wrong at many levels.

 Expert describes how bad could it get

This type of thinking reminds me of how our US security "experts" could not imagine an airliner being used as a weapon.    When will we demand better?

Chernobyl was attempted to be covered up 100% at the beginning, even though eventually 600,000 people used as "liquidators" were eventually brought in to cleanup, the first 200,000 were exposed to heavy radiation.  Some pictures (still in my mind from 1986) showed workers in normal street clothes shovelling radioactive materials into wheelbarrows.

Tokyo Electric Power tried to cover up their problems at the start, the Prime Minister was reportedly extremely mad when they finally fessed up a little bit 3 hours after it had already become a real problem.

Apparently they are bringing in "Firm Power" meaning a new power line from other utilities so at least the brave workers at the site have some real power to help in whatever tasks they are doing while wearing full suits and humping around huge air tanks on their backs.

I will be out in training all day Wed

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


Forex being heavily gamed today.   Shenanighans.

Very good chance we float up a bit, relax on the news, and then a slam down again.

Japan up over 10% compared to overnight. 

No news on Japan TV related to Nuclear....odd.   No news is not good news, but let's hope it is.

What was funny yesterday is the Automakers getting reality, they should do very well once they get their plants up and running.    There will be strong demand.   Japanese like new cars.

And Germany closing 7 nuclear plants....I though they were a little smarter, but that may be pre-election gamesmanship, still I find it odd.

MY TRADE PLAN....orders in place to short weakness, if there is more upside, I will miss it.

From a market maven

From a market maven -- "daily market thoughts"

It's usually not a good idea to make a lot of changes to one's overall portfolio in these types of crises. I'd further suggest you turn off your TV before they scare you into doing something you may regret later. You might also want to turn off your computer and not look at the day's charts. That may also prompt you to make some short-term mistakes. Hopefully, we'll be able to make a better assessment of things by week's end. 

Also most people on blog commenting on how everything is "down big", the reality is that everything is up big compared to overnight futures,   Japan is up about 10%, how is that for a different perspective.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Dummies Guide to Nuclear Plant Accidents

This is much of what I thought already.   Perhaps the point that they don't dwell on in this PDF is that what is trying to be controlled is a nuclear reaction- this is the normal day to day operation.  Once you get the thing going, it doesn't want to stop all on it's own, especially if you reduce the necessary cooling which it wants continously.   It is a reaction underway.   It will melt through the massive steel Reactor Vessel, in a matter of hours if out of control. 

Dummies Guide to Nuclear Accidents

There are "Control Rods" that are used to control the rate of the nuclear reaction, and in theory, if they are inserted all the way into the uranium rod bundles, they will stop the reaction completely.  However, without cooling water flowing during this shutdown process it won't shutdown.

And here is a pretty cool video from CNN.

You know, these plants are always right by the water, and there are tall structures everywhere.   Why not put the diesel generators that drive the cooling water pumps on the roof?    Seems like a no-brainer actually.    Hmmm...earthquake....tsunami, they go hand in hand.   What is the extra cost involved in putting the diesel generators out of harms way?

And how about a final backup plan....big pumps powered by diesel directly, capable of pumping enough water to fill the entire reactor building, even if there is a 2' hole in the building, and keep it full enough that the reaction shuts down before the diesel tank runs dry.   

For the future, think and research on Thorium, a better way than uranium.   Safer, more abundant.

Black Swans -- Not the ones you can see

We all know there have been black swans circling overhead.    But the game changers are not the swans you can see...the ones that matter come out of no where, hiding in the cloud bank, then delivered on a cruise missile.   

Nikkei apparently stops trading

No bids anymore

Japan - Live TV translated to English

Seems like things are getting worse.   It appears that the containment vessel and the pressure vessel (outer protective concrete shell) are both breached, radiation on outside is increasing above safe levels, and all plant personnel are being evacuated except maybe just a few.  Water used for emergency cooling is leaking out faster than they can pump it in.

Untranslated to English, but from my wife, the Prime Minister has talked to the plant operators telling them "prepare yourselves, only you guys can do this."   Got it?

The information being provided is sketchy, maybe there is little information.   Why don't they have cameras and robots in there?

Japan - Before and After Pictures

This is very dramatic, many of these former towns won't hardly even need a bulldozer to clear things for the re-build.    Everything is already swept away.  Check out these before and after pictures

How Bad is Japan, Nukes and Charts

Good article from someone in the know.    Japan is bad, but not catastrophic, and the US is not going to get pelted with radiation.

Some of you may have noticed that the Nikkei chart was screaming short last week, see this post

I closed that short after an initial win, and then re-opened it, believing that shorting weakness is the way to go.    But if you short and let the bounce happen (78% these days), you will lose all your potential profits.

Therefore my strategy of late is to buy to  cover the short at market (not sit with a stop overhead), and then put in automatic order to re-short on continued weakness.    

Sorry for the people of Japan, in theory I am visiting next month, but we will have to reassess as things calm down over there.    Japan will rebuild, and fairly quickly.   Some of the northern cities are pretty "old school" even where alot of the young people moved away to be in bigger towns like Tokyo or Osaka.    They might have a tough time of it without a real source of productivity (young people).  

The estimates are $100B, I bet Japan spends $500B on new infrastructure before this is all over.   Here-in lies the hope for Japan --that $500B is going to buy new buildings, new jobs, new trucks and excavators, new cars, new hope.    And it will go to construction workers, who will put 105% of that money back into circulation.

In America we took a few trillion and handed it to criminal banksters while also inflating silly "assets" like stocks that are nothing more than a fleeting electron on a HAL 20000 high frequency trading computer.   Keep this in mind....think if you amass all your wealth into some electrons.  

The deception runs deep, very deep.

Buy and hold is dead.   The P/E is around 22 to 23, if you believe the E numbers, it could be higher.   Historically, the long term return, say in the next decade is just awful.   That is what we are set up for.  No one wants to take their medicine, just kick the can again, and again, and again, and again.    Check MISH for a good summary on the P/E, even Hussman quoted MISH.

Drop a comment.    

Sunday, March 13, 2011

USD Futures, we posted the chance of a slap down last week, and the blue line did it

The Yen is not being seen as a "low risk" currency now.   They will print, for sure.

That might increase interest in the USD.   Technically, although big daddy Pretcher been talking USD bull for years, it might not happen.   BUT in this conflicted market, be sure to also check out the COT below

I tend to want to watch the commercial  traders, they are usually early, and on the right side of the trade.   They haven't been net long in quite some time, they have been the past several weeks.

You can get these charts for free on a website, look on my page here

Vix Ratio

I like this Vix ratio.  It draws nice lines/channels.  

This is an indicator list from Breakpoint Trades, it's a paid site and well worth it.  

Sign up using link on upper left, and they extend my membership.  

 Sunday shenanigans on the ES, very rare to  see this 10 points in a minute, on a Sunday afternoon.