Thursday, December 22, 2011

Steady as She Goes

This is the Winter Solstice, marking the shortest day of the year.  

It has been an important tradition for thousands of years, important religious holidays congregate around the Solstice, I read something from another country calling the solstice "Christmas".

Here is a BPT long I choose not to take.

 IBM gamers?
 This is a tasty long I took
 This one too, long, both BPT ideas.
 Zero Hedge, bless their soulstice, calling Armageddon has not been profitable.   This from Slope of Hope
It is a turning point of the sun.    It could be a turning point of the market, probabilistically up, but could be down.    I hear most EW guys are super bullish.    

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

S&P 500 What is the Trickiest Thing it could do?

What would be the most diabolical thing the market could do....a 30 point drop tomorrow, trend day down.    Bears, happy to get some porridge before Jesus birthday will close their positions, Bulls, disgusted waiting for Santa, will close their positions

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Overly bearish sentiment on Euro

This poll from WSJ of 3900 people showed 85% thought the Euro going down through end of year.   So only 15% think that the USD would be down by end of year, and thus 85% think that Santa will not show up to the party, and 85% think that the financial industry will be happy with smaller bonuses this year, rather than launch a ramp job.

Makes you say....hmmmmmm

Buy any pullbacks, unless there aren't any pullbacks

Market is based on nature, based on deception.   Think of the number of times that animals use deception as a prime way of life. 

This market is tricky, I have been patient at times when it worked, but I will not take a week of being wrong pain.   The bears were burnt on the run to 1260, then pulled back in on the steep drop from 1260 to 1225.    Many bulls probably closed out at that time...thinking, I want to for sure not lose money into the end of the year.  

I had some Feb calls "swing trades" long that loved today.   Most futures are day trades and so if against me, they close quick, and come back quick.

Long ES from 1198, which is sweet for now.  Closed out Cable long, it is forming a blimp, which is not bullish.   And Euro is being heavily gamed, ramped up, ramped down, staying away from that freak.

Here is Vix, about the lowest it ever goes to is 15, I can't see it getting that lower by New Years, but who knows, for now it is in a clear downchannel as seems to be its normal habit after a "Scare the Sheep" event.

There may be no dip to buy....leave the frustrated bulls and frustrated bears in the dirt as HBB ramps for its multi-Billion dollar year end bonuses, maybe like 100 Billion.    I heard that all the used nuclear fuel in the world could be placed into relatively safe dry cask storage for around 10 Billion.    But instead, they overjam the water filled pools that are located above the reactors themselves....they don't even seperate the risks!

And if the water leaks out....terrible nuclear fission/fire, guaranteed nasty release.   But the problem that is most likely to wipe out humanity, nuclear pollution, could be to a great extent be solved for $10B, and yet we allow $100B to be handed out to "financial advisers" of a rigged casino.

This is where the world is at right now.  Preparation and protection are not things that are fool hardy.

Big 61 Fibo Slowed Down the Advance of ES

 Trend dips, they are meant to fake out the weak handed bulls.
 From a reader at BPT---never saw the "3 Gap" play before but it looks good.

Big 61 Fibo 2007 high to 2009 low

Ping to the Penny, from the big 61 Fibo, yes the 2007 high to 2009 low.  

Called the Bucky Whoopin'

Y'all remember last Friday when Daddy P (Big Bob Pretcher was all excited that Bucky was breaking out to new 12 month highs!) My response was that "Bucky about to get a whoopin". See Friday link

Whose your Daddy? It ain't Bob Pretcher. He had awesome calls that no one had (practically no one) but you can't be wrong for a decade at a time, not even 2 months. And driving people to "maximum leverage" and then setting an ES stop at 1260 made him and disciples the perfect target.

Then draw the bears in again with a steep drop that most miss (they get short at the bottom), and then stall out Santa, then Whoopin' time. Fundamentally, I am quite bearish (just saying I don't count Celente in the group of realists, sorry MISH either -can't be 100% bear every day, and Celente did get his gold stolen at Mf'ers inc). Here are the currency pictures.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

BPT Free Newsletter and Coupon

Free commodities newsletter from BPT, the best stuff.  I skim through them because they are long and I know how to read charts

Stop thinking about it, sign up for BPT.   Use this link and type in coupon code, and instead of $80 per month, you get the special deal of $240 for 6 months, and an additional 25% off, so just $180, which is amazing.

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This is a tax deductible expense, stop screwing around and take the plunge into more money making ideas 

ABT Long, Gold Chart, IBM Long