Saturday, June 13, 2009

Classic sign of antoher bullish extreme- Scooter Pricing

Underwater scooters...yeah like james Bond, are now selling for the peak values they sold for in 2007 before financial dislocations. Then in summer 2008, they had dropped from $3000 to $2250, now they are back to $3000 with a stated list price of $4000.

Going Long Housing -- Be a Bull

Well now, 2 bullish posts in a row...kind of.

I generated an idea the old fashioned way....I stole it.

Housing starts and building permit econ data are released on Tuesday, I predict they will be suprisingly good. The gov has placed alot of fertilizer on those green shoots...(aka Bullshit)

Trade idea....Short SRS if you can find the shares to borrow, or Long URE.

Orig idea,

Bullish on Little Bears

Rampaging Bearishness

Rampaging Bearishness

This run up has been amazing in its lack of pause for breath, say its an ABC correcting the main trend which is down, we are at the end of A or darn darn close, and then B down will ensue, it might last a few weeks (if panic sets in) or a few months, then a summer push to new highs, around 1050 S&P because that's about a 61 FIB from the Aug 08 highs.

Earnings may be OK for some financials / trading firms and those who have been allowed to not mark to market and thus propagate more lies to fertilize these green shoots. But for the most part, earnings are going to be terrible. Japan Industrial production was down 40%, Europe just announced 21% down. These are huge, huge numbers. We are 2 weeks away from the end of the quarter and NOBODY is talking about earnings--like that monster in the closet isn't there as long as you don't look.

XLF (financials) are coiling up like a cobra....about to make a big move.

At the same time, the bullish percent index is getting right up there to exuberant levels.

On the S&P bullish percent is close to the 2007 "mother of all manias"$BPSPX&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p11391426412&a=164488777

Yet Housing (people under water, being financially and emotionally crushed by being trapped in a long term no win situation) is not even close to being fixed.

Well if our economy is 70% consumer, and the consumer is in a savings, retrenchment, or perhaps "being crushed by housing, more taxes, more restrictions", then is is going to take your real cheerleading to convince consumers to be optimistic and put yet another Harley and Large Screen TV in their garage.

Then to complete my bearish case, lets ponder the ramifications of Tarp money, where it is going to, how it is being tracked, and perhaps coincidentally, the attempted illegal transport of $150B in US dollar based bonds from Italy to Switzerland by Japanese nationals, at the same time as Japan gov proclaims how they trust the US dollar and are gong to continue to be strong buyers of US debt. This may just be some elaborate conterfieting scheme, but the ramifications are potentially enormous, and the US news media has COMPLETELY ignore this story--that tells you it's important. Well let's not even get started on how the US gov is counterfeiting its own money...effectively stealing from those who have saved and have worked hard, and have been prudent.

Also there are quite a few ways in which global political events could worsen, Korea, Iran, Israel, along with our ongoing wars that are not going well, and costing trillions of dollars.

Then from a socio-economics perspective-- although we have been told about some green shoots popping our from the rubble of multiple imploded ponzi-schemes, why are random acts of mass murder suddenly in vogue, and why are vampires so popular. The mass human psyche is on a "Dark Wave (TM)" and we all know that we've been living too high off the hog for too long, and we a unified subconscious level, that the piper is going to show up and he will demand payment.

But as our favorite burn victim banker used to say...."when the music is still playing, you have to get up and dance", but it is indeed a sketchy and spastic dance going on today, since we know the piper stands right outside the door.

Now a real contrarian would take this incredible bearish rant, and go highly leveraged long :).

Personally I am going to roll into a delta neutral stance with some lottery longs that will trigger on advancement, with trailing stops fairly tightly set to take advantage of a possible blow off top which will also clear out so many short stops, so that not many people can enjoy a quick move down. Say on a 3% move will probably get a lot people buying the dip long, bring more money into the market, then a recovery day, then 3 days straight down...taking 10% off the market...the bears will be waiting for an pullback in order to short, and they will never get it. I think much of this can play out this weekend next, as we traverse some Fibonacci reversal timeframes, and as we approach the summer solstice which is coincident with a new moon. Molecool also has some secret turn date around the 24th or 26th.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Night Hawk

Monday June 9th,

Last Post the BIG Head and Shoulders

This one is big, not because a 30 point move on a 900 value index is huge, its only 3%, but it busts the channels, takes away much of the bullish uptrend, and after a week of "House of Whipsaw" I think could break the bull spirit.

Warped Market or Wishful Thinking

Bulkowski says wegdes arent that reliable, but observation of late says otherwise.

However, i say this falling wedge does the opposite of what it should do and breaks to downside.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Falling Wedge Scary for Bearish position

For nightime ES there is huge open interest, never seen before.
But for a bear, it may be best to pack away one's loot and hibernate until the next battle shows a clear win.

The falling wedge is ominous, buy at low market and call it a night.

Bugle Boy

The Bugle formation always says "look at me" and something big happens.

And a little later on

Brit party waving the flag

Brit party continues, taking longer than usual.

Amusing 261 Fib included

Sample of Jing

Brit Party - no slam dancing necessary

But you do have to do the opposite of what your gut is telling you....

Market rising fast.....SHORT IT!

TWT time will tell, this is a 15 minute quick reversal trade.

BB isn't Ben Bernanke

Awesome classic Jam.....

Reminds me of the market.

Why ever buy long or sell short?

I read one market maven stating "in my opinion selling calls can be better than buying long stock"...Really that is not a matter of opinion....its a no brainer. Why not accept premium from reduces your purchase cost.

Anyone out there with any experience with seliing calls or puts on 2X funds? Any that work well?

Sunday, June 7, 2009

ES Short Whipsaw Stop Run

I got whipsawed out of my ES short, around 939, but fortunately went back in.

I started using a "study" consisting of a simple moving average of 5 minute about a certain price point to trigger a market order to stop the trade.

We will see how that works.

Silver Short

This is the /YIN9 Silver mini-futures

5000 ounces of silver each.

Sensei say--timing is veeeeeery important.

First test Post ES Overnight