Saturday, May 5, 2012

Famous Lies - Sell in May

When something is being promoted all over the place, you can pretty much be sure that it is wrong, and often intentional deception.    The financial firms own most of the media, and they use it as a tool of propaganda and deception.   Of course, it always "sounds good"

This time its the Sell in May and Go Away Mantra.   In December, it was the Santa Rally....and a heck of a rally it was, after everyone gave up on the idea of the Santa Rally.

It is sad that we let politicians manipulate things just to get elected again.   We all know it, most of us know that quick spending of "shovel ready" money is not the best way to allocate resources, and yet it carries on as acceptable and known.   Funny that.

But when a Dem sits in the Big House (white house I mean), the election year market look quite different, I was thinking maybe July or August for a rally into election, but it may come more quickly.  

Tom McClennan has great stuff, including this chart

Study on GDX and SPX

GDX is Gold Miners Index, and GDXJ is junior gold miner index
GDX came into being in 2006

Back in the day, the theory was that buying gold miners was a way to get free leverage on the price of gold.   This has worked out NOT AT ALL.

A miner that I bought previously had estimates of cost of production of gold at $200 per ounce in 2006, now in 2012 there actual "production cost is $650 per ounce".    That means that they are pocketing the money and overloaded their accounting.    Cost of doing business has in no way gone up that much.    Many gold miners are scammers, esp. the juniors.    The regulatory and stock oversight peoples don't seem to do much to regulate outright lies, perhaps a few gold coins shuts them up.   But then that same problem seems totally prevalent in almost every industry.

I did a study to see how the GDX moved in relation to the SPX from 2006

828  Number of Days SPX closed up
460  No. of days SPX went down AND GDX went down
216  No. of days SPX went down and GDX went up

1505  Total Trade Days Since May 22, 2006 (first day of GDX)
510  No of Days that SPX and GDX traded opposite of each other

The mathematical correlation between SPX and GDX is 0.27 which means they kind of move the same direction but just barely.

About 1/3 the time they move opposite.

The comparison to the Russell was much the same, not even worth publishing the minor differences.

Tom of the North Satire

Tom creates original material funny stuff.    Irreverent for sure, right up my alley.

Check it out.

Government Income grows faster than even the fastest State

FARGO — “Thanks to strong growth in the agriculture and mining industries — particularly oil and gas production — North Dakota’s per-capita personal income has risen more than 78 percent since 2000, according to statistics released Friday by the federal government and the state Department of Commerce. That’s more than double the 37.4 percent increase in per-capita income seen nationally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.
Per-capita personal income in North Dakota in 2011 was $45,747, an increase of $20,155 since 2000, when per-capital personal income was $25,592, the BEA reported. North Dakota’s average growth in per-capita personal income between 2001 and 2011 was 5.6 percent, while the national average was 2.9 percent.”
MP: North Dakota’s growth in personal income per capita of 78.75% between 2000 and 2011 was the highest for any state, and just behind the 80.6% growth in per-capita income in Washington, D.C. What’s the lesson here? Maybe that even an abundance of natural resources and oil prosperity can’t generate increases in personal income like the federal government?
HT: Kevin Burhart

Super Moon

Rising Gold along with falling US equities and a rising dollar -- and this is what we have seen.   The trademarked "Fear Factor" indicator from Hawaii Trading measures this.

It seems like the charts "create" the news.   Well at least predict the news, as if the insiders know more than main stream media.  

Today we have a "Super Moon"

Many people are not aware that Fukushima is more dangerous and potentially deadly than ever.   Besides the continuous release of radioactive water that flows by melted rods they are trying to keep cool, there is also the Reactor 4 Fuel Pool.   If that collapses, nuclear experts state the radiation released would be like 800 large nuclear bombs going off all at once, in an open air reaction that would pretty much toast Japan quickly and it would also get carried across the Pacific and blast the US within days.   It may not be an extinction level event, but it would be close, it would at least be a Mad Max level event.
Experts say acknowledging the threat would call into question the safety of dozens of identically designed nuclear power plants in the U.S.

The moon itself is the largest variable force on the earth, except for perhaps large magnetic and perhaps other physics effect of Coronal Mass Ejections CME from the Sun.   

If you Google Earthquake and Supermoon,  you  get nearly 100% people aggressively "debunking" any relation.   Funny how that works.    They go out of their way to "prove" that nature is not in control, that humans are in control.   And in their rants, I see no hint of real scientific data.   And they cite "I have never seen scientific data showing a correlation between moon and earthquakes" as a way to "prove" no correlation.

Indeed, perhaps the insane Monkeys became human, and maybe a certain degree of insanity is in fact an serious evolutionary advantage.    Perhaps the insanity drives innovation and ability to wage war to pump the ego further in the insane inflation of our own self importance.   Ah yes, the ability to fool your own mind, funny but that could actually be an evolutionary advantage, the psychopaths rise to the top.

Keep in mind too that proceeding a "Super Moon" is a "Super No Moon" because of the shape of the orbit.    The earth reacts to not just an increase in gravity and tidal effect, but also to a decrease in gravity.     And the tidal effects lag behind a few days since water has mass and inertia. 

The last super moon was March 19 2011.   So the Super No Moon was around March 5th.     And the Great Japan Earthquake was March 11, 2011.  

Herd behavior, explained here and  here

Friday, May 4, 2012

Friday Ramble On

DROP a COMMENT already
 Sign up as a follower, I might actually think someone reads this drivel.

Well, the ol' Hawaii Trader been pretty much nailing it.

Got to be careful though....start getting cocky and "pressing your advantage" and increasing your position size is a great piggy way to really get B-slapped and have your profits stripped away.

Pretty much 95% of the time when I have gotten piggy in the past, I did get slapped hard --- really about 90% of the time. Those odds are amazing.

Ill do some analysis on the weekend, but the blue egg is IMHO opinion "too steep" but we should be at least aware of an oversold bounce possible. We should also be aware that equity drops as gold increases are the pre-squacking of a black swan.

DROP a COMMENT already Sign up as a follower, I might actually think someone reads this drivel.

 And look where we are at in relation to the HT trademarked Bernoulli channel....what I consider to be the true channels which catch outliers and denote true trend changes (or at least strong wave 2 or B waves). We are right at the B177 channel line, if this breaks Kansas go bye-bye whether you took the red pill or the blue pill.....

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Bucky still to run up

GDX looks like a classic multi-year embryo pop. Did not stop my calls out, buy more this revenge trading? Or is this loaded up on classic HT pattern?

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

LOGM Short

One from a few weeks back, meandered around then respected the trendline break with an egg like swat. Missed much of the move as I just noticed this today. New View with an Egg, kind of close to the 6 oclock position though, Maybe LOGM goes for one more kick to the egg, or 2.


Short trade, short at 11.27 stop at 11.60, target 10.70 for take some profits, leave a runner.

Makeup of the GDX which got body slammed today

Ticker Grade Sentiment Company Name Market Cap Div. Yield Weight 52wk-High 52wk-Low Last Close
ABX 79.2 2.8 Barrick Gold Corp. 40,447.10 1.34% 18.15% 55.18 39.610001 40.44
AEM 48.2 4.3 Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. 6,834.08 1.30% 3.24% 71.910004 32.330002 39.61
AG 78.6 3.1 First Majestic Silver Cor 1,657.98 N/A 0.79% 0.0 0.0 16.05
ANV 54.2 2.3 Allied Nevada Gold Corp. 2,625.88 N/A 1.24% 45.110001 27.620001 29.95
AU 80.1 2 AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. 13,230.30 1.44% 5.94% 48.830002 32.869999 34.56
AUQ 67.6 4.4 AuRico Gold, Inc. 2,583.58 N/A 1.23% 14.01 7.56 9.29
AUY 61 5.4 Yamana Gold, Inc. 10,963.30 1.22% 4.57% 17.969999 11.24 14.73
AZK 75.1 4.4 Aurizon Mines Ltd. 883.35 N/A 0.42% 7.04 4.44 5.39
BVN 67.4 6.9 Compania de Minas Buenave 10,472.70 1.30% 5.33% 48.0 35.75 41.19
CDE 55.7 2.3 Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. 1,937.26 N/A 0.92% 30.219999 20.559999 21.65
EGO 71.6 3.9 Eldorado Gold Corp. 7,822.86 1.06% 4.78% 21.799999 12.75 14.1
GBG 36 4.3 Great Basin Gold Ltd. 381.89 N/A 0.16% 2.43 0.63 0.731
GFI 81.8 3.2 Gold Fields Ltd. 9,314.47 3.44% 4.43% 18.299999 12.3 13.04
GG 49.8 2.6 Goldcorp, Inc. 30,990.60 0.41% 14.00% 55.84 38.259998 38.6
GOLD 75.6 3.2 Randgold Resources Ltd. 8,176.58 0.20% 3.89% 119.440002 74.389999 87.35
GSS 45.1 2.9 Golden Star Resources Ltd 395.77 N/A 0.19% 2.98 1.51 1.53
HL 58.3 2.3 Hecla Mining Co. 1,221.05 0.76% 0.58% 8.65 3.98 4.32
HMY 69.7 3.2 Harmony Gold Mining Co. L 4,183.73 1.34% 1.99% 14.87 9.36 9.76
IAG 61.8 3.6 IAMGOLD Corp. 4,661.78 1.82% 2.22% 23.25 11.9 12.51
KGC 34.1 3.3 Kinross Gold Corp. 10,182.70 1.56% 4.29% 18.18 8.85 8.96
NEM 43.8 2.4 Newmont Mining Corp. 23,612.70 2.83% 10.58% 72.129997 46.299999 48.05
NGD 47.4 2.9 New Gold, Inc. 4,198.71 N/A 2.00% 0.0 0.0 9.36
NSU 68.4 3.2 Nevsun Resources Ltd. 729.71 2.20% 0.35% 7.15 3.18 3.7
PAAS 73.4 2.3 Pan American Silver Corp. 2,038.65 0.58% 1.43% 34.529999 18.469999 19.21
RGLD 59 3.1 Royal Gold, Inc. 3,694.67 0.60% 1.73% 82.690002 55.950001 61.74
SA 16 1.5 Seabridge Gold, Inc. 728.25 N/A 0.35% 0.0 0.0 16.57
SLW 80.5 3.2 Silver Wheaton Corp. 10,794.30 0.49% 4.41% 40.939999 27.450001 30.53
SSRI 44.9 5.7 Silver Standard Resources 1,164.34 N/A 0.55% 31.25 12.72 14.56