Thursday, May 23, 2013

Rotation from Stocks to Real Estate?

Real Estate is booming, and a key industry magazine "Origination" i.e. the making of loans, states that want even less "compliance" i.e. even less rules than the rules that were ignored on the last housing bubble?

Does anyone remember that housing bubble?    It does seem like a lifetime ago, as this slow motion train wrecks drags out Amazingly, but it was only 6 years ago.    

Now those making loans want less regulation to "save the consumer some costs".    Increasing housing prices will definitely create some construction jobs as people get excited about housing as a "hard asset" and a store of wealth.     But the end result will be the same as the last bubble, which is far more negative than the near term positives.

This is a good time to get familiar with your local market.   It could be even time for a speculative "buy" especially if you can keep your transaction costs down (i.e. mitigate realtor fees, use a broker directly just to handle the paperwork, or a lawyer).     PS followed by a nimble "sell".    Don't move in, just rent, with your option to shorten the lease if you are selling the place.

My experience shows that single family housing leads the bubble, then townhouses, then condos, with the latter continuing the upward climbs to higher percentages and more irrational exuberance, thinking the Russell.    those with less wherewithall can buy the townhouses and condos.   Those same people are likely to be either younger and less experience, or just plain poor market timers or not even thinking about market timing, just thinking...I must get on the boat now or I will never have a house.

This goes hand in hand with sustained low interest rates.   Seems obvious that the gov must play the hand this way.   Bama better create some jobs soon, or he is lucky if he gets to finish his second term.  
Here is the link to Origination News

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

A real Post with Charts!

Check out the ES chart, and my comments from last week, played out perfectly, so far.