Friday, May 25, 2012

A rant from TF metals

If I take 1oz of Ag bullion to a reputable, official coin shop to exchange for '64 dimes, how many dimes will I walk out with, today?
This is a very simple example to demonstrate where the inefficiencies of the economy lie. This is a silver-to-silver trade! All I want is some 'change'! I was promised that during the last election!!!!
- High taxation (retail purchases in CA ~10% State tax); Federal taxation on gains, of course, etc.
- High premiums (iliquidity measure)
- Little competition due to barriers to entry, regulatory compliance, secret 'you have to show your ID to pay with cash, now, sorry, please help me to stick a boot up yer a$s for making a purchase of a REAL assets', etc.
- Two-way transaction losses, because PM's aren't 'money', etc.
- Any rational 'barter' is de-facto illegal, since in a closed system of barter w/out $USD, there would be no $USD to pay the mandatory taxes.
- BS arguments trying to convince me that ten cents of fiat BS and impurities in my 'silver' coin actually deserves any premium at all!
- Transaction fees, spreads, other fees, interest on loans in some cases, the real cost of market manipulations, and other losses perhaps per jurisdiction elsewhere, etc.
- Post-investment fines, surprise taxes, registrations, mandatory 'education' qualifications, fire code violations, arrests, confiscations, imprisonments, or outright theft when they can't kill the newbie legally, etc. for those ignorant enough to try to actually enter the market and thus create competition and innovation.
This is a great benchmark to weigh either new taxes on PM, or the alleviation of restraints on progress! Tell your congressional b-a$s-tards, and maybe a few would be willing to raise the argument in defense of liberty!
Worse of all, get ready for more demonization of the transaction and those involved in it, not the return to rational trade!  This will happen now.

Trading lesson -- dedication to your plan

You have to give this guy credit, he came  up with a plan and an exit strategy, and he stuck with it, even though it was hard.    These are elements of a successful trading plan.

However, he got one part wrong, he entered a program that just had too much downside risk, even though he had an exit plan, the risk was too high, just too damn high.   

OK, if you don't mind the Macabre keep reading.

(CNN) -- A gunman looking for someone he believed owed him money took and released hostages in Valparaiso, Indiana, before shooting himself twice in the head, authorities said Friday.


Closed all trading positions over holiday

Sold final tranche of GDX calls for June, hate paying serious theta time value, and like the idea of 14 of 16 profitable weeks, so locked that in.   did get worked over on Euro long too early, although really the price hasn't changed much, but the severe ramps up and down took me out at losses.  

coulda shoulda woulda, slightly kicking myself for seeing the Nikkei bear flag weeks back and ignoring it.

SPG with a classic blow off top over the Bernoulli channel.   

Have a great weekend, summertime is here.   

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Euro better time to go long

Remember 3 day weekend coming up. 

this thin tail pop on the B100 looks like an awesome long,
Gold long
Silver long

Almost looks too good to be true.

John Carter Live Trading tick

Silver exuberance, secret channel in blue

Perfect Huge Volume Scare on the second fall --- little boy traders peeing their pants , oh my it's happening again my precious silver is going down, whilst evil speculators at Hawaii Trading have the secret channel from 2007 (blue) and a classic high volume embryo pop to guide them.

Weirdness Abounds

How can Elliot Waves "work" over the whole world, even back when things were not fully connected via computer.....but they were fully connected by humans. Certainly there is more than meets the eye to the world we live in. A relative has a heart attack in Atlanta and the daughter in San Diego knows instinctively. These are real things. I do believe we are connected in much the same way that bee hives are connected and know how to work together, or how flocks of birds all turn at exactly the same time. More on that unification theory later. BUT in the last week, humans that I interact with have been "going off". Completely irrational stuff that come out of the blue. I have noticed streaks of this before, its like the whole population knows that things are not right and the weirdness is an expression of anxiety for a problem they can feel but can't identify. Well my own little slice of life noticing of weirdness is not infallible. But even in the news, more mention of "beatings" and other absurd crimes of violence. AND It's a three day weekend coming up, so not to be chicken little here, but for sure the HBB powers that be love to work people over after they come back from a three day weekend.

Bucky and ES and GDX

My only big position was GDX long calls

Bucky continues to move up while ES flounders, in apparent kickdown from the lower sloping up channel.

Predicted "rip your face off rally" seems to be on hold at least.   McClennan oscillator spike down predicted an equities ramp up, although Hawaii Trading Fear Factor and VOS were saying tank down on equities.    Do I trust McC or my own stuff more?   

Storage for some Gold Tickers only

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  GLD -0.30% and  
SLV -1.06% . Our computers also routinely monitor trading activity in Market Vectors Gold Miners GDX +0.14% ,
Newmont Mining NEM +2.92% ,
Silver Wheaton SLW +3.73% ,
Barrick Gold  
ABX +5.26% ,
Hecla Mining  
HL +6.16% ,
Coeur d'Alene Mines
  CDE +2.91% ,
Pan American Silver
  PAAS +5.20% ,
Agnico-Eagle Mines  
AEM +5.43% , and
Goldcorp GG +6.78% .

Reserve Currency

Chinese are saying they got the reserve currency, right there.....

Not even close, y'all are way more bubbled up than US or UK.

Zero Hedge

Just saying, and I have actually been published in Zero Hedge

Ol Durden seems pretty sharp, BUT has anything I read on Zero Hedge actually caused me to make money.

Slam dunk, hands down, argument over. 

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

DRTV Dog Returneth to Vomit Pattern

Never forget the Dog Returneth to Vomit Pattern DRTV

It is classic deception, and when it shows it's hand, you need to be more resolved, not less.

Bucky started downward, and I wrote yesterday, Bucky wants to go down and tap the egg. And I greatly suspected a return to the Bernoulli channel as a "screw the smart guy" move. Yep, that is what the DRTV pattern is all about....the trader is correct on his turn point, commits to a trade, see the trade go his way, maybe even adding to "press his advantage" and then have a complete retrace and maybe a bit more to wipe out stop that were initially set on the trade.

OR wipe out stops that were set and then moved into a "can't lose" price point. Therein lies the deception. Can't lose eh? Now "they" took your stop when you through you were safe, and are in a "hey I protected myself" mode of thinking. Now the real move your original correct direction, and you miss the boat because you were "being responsible", then you jump on after it "confirms" and then it ramps against you again, with another stop out.

Now it makes it's wave 3 plunge and you watch like a deer in the headlights, vowing to "get it" next time, maybe even try to time the bounce (which is really a wave 4, and then get pounded on the wave 5 down again) 

Classic deception.

There are only so many forms of price deception. Get to know them. I will detail them as I discover and confirm them.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Bucky wants to tap the Egg

Miners been beat up badly, blood in the streets

With an almost for sure, QE announcement coming up soon, so Dabama can keep his job....and with so many miners decimated and yet forming nice launchpad formations, this is kind of too good to be true.   

Unfortunately, if you wanted to use profits from miners to stack physical, you will also see Gold go up.  

This chart from BPT, they focus on Gold alot, but especially when the charts demand it.

They provide the best in class charts and trading advice.    No one else is even close.   

Sign up using the link on the right side of this blog, they do give me credit toward membership, you will not regret it.


Have you stacked any coins this last month?

Sunday, May 20, 2012

GDX and Gold

GDX is barely correlated with SPY, but highly correlated with GLD

Gold futures are up nicely, that should mean my double down on GDX calls should see a nice pop Monday AM

 I lived and worked there in the 80s.

Michigan is a great state, but Detroit was a real shit hole even back then.

Factory workers, protected by the unions, would work the system, taking every sick day they could without triggering any retribution because they knew exactly what the rules were.

These same factory workers would have a nice enough house less than 10 miles from where they worked, and a few vehicles such as a truck or SUV to pull their boat to their country house on a nearby lake. It made no sense.

Sure there were some good workers, and many very dedicated to the auto industry with a love for the auto. But for the most part it was just silly, the union extracting way more than they should.

 I recognized it at the time for what it was, the prelude to bad times. An entitlement society.

Crime was also rampant at the time, now it has gotten worse. And there were huge amounts of muslims, which just seemed odd.

Lots of crime and lots of racial intolerance. If your car broke down in some parts of the city, your life would seriously be at risk.

Now houses are selling for $2000, although many sell for $9000 or $29000.
There can be no other rational basis for the creation of the Euro except to create blown up countries and then concentrate power, for say the Rothschilds and the Germans. Below is from Peter Dag who realizes that the business cycle eventually "wins" 5/20/12 A history of European failures In 1970 the European nations tried narrowing exchange-rate fluctuations. It was to be tried on an experimental basis without any commitment to the other stages. It took for granted fixed exchange rates against the dollar. When the USA effectively floated the dollar from August 1971, the ensuing wave of market instability put upward pressure on the Deutschmark and squashed hopes of tying the Community's currencies more closely together. And the experiment failed. In March 1972, the Member States created the ‘snake in the tunnel’. This was a mechanism for managing fluctuations of their currencies (the snake) inside narrow limits against the dollar (the tunnel). Hit by oil crises, policy divergence and dollar weakness, within two years the snake had lost many of its component parts and was little more than a German-mark zone comprising Germany, Denmark and the Benelux countries. And the experiment failed. The quick ‘death’ of the snake did not diminish interest in trying to create an area of currency stability. A new proposal for EMU was put forward in 1977 by the then president of the European Commission, Roy Jenkins. It was taken up in a more limited form and launched as the European Monetary System (EMS) in March 1979, with the participation of all Member States’ currencies except the British pound, which joined later in 1990 but only stayed for two years. The European Monetary System was built on the concept of stable but adjustable exchange rates defined in relation to the newly created European Currency Unit (ECU) – a currency basket based on a weighted average of EMS currencies. Within the EMS, currency fluctuations were controlled through the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and kept within ±2.25% of the central rates, with the exception of the Italian lira, the Spanish peseta, the Portuguese escudo and the pound sterling, which were allowed to fluctuate by ±6%. In August 1993, these bands were widened to 15% in order to counter speculative pressures, but by 1996 all currencies had moved back to their original fluctuation margins. And the experiment failed. Many years of managing large sums of exchange rates hedges and teaching the subject in universities and colleges taught me that large monetary unions, like that of the US, survive if the productivity between the member states is close, very close. European foreign exchange experiments will continue to fail as long as productivity differentials between member states are so different. The markets always win. Even in the US monetary union. Sates like Ohio, Michigan, and California are paying dearly because they have become uncompetitive (within the US monetary union) as Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland (within the European monetary union).