Friday, March 19, 2010

Gold/Silver and TED spread

Good video on using gold silver ratio to help make other market trading and risk control measures.

If you haven't noticed the good stuff on the right side bar, please check it out.   One is the TED spread.

Ol' Teddy has been amazingly low, it measures perception of risk on bond pricing, see what happened to TED spread in the past crisis periods.

I find these Bloomberg chart presentation format incredibly insulting compared to the incredible ease and computational and graphical capabilities that are so easily out there.   Regardless, here is the TED spread.  If anyone knows a better charting source that can display TED spread, let me know.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Deflation? Americans paying off debt in record numbers?

Just saying...a huge part of the consumer debt "payoffs" have actually been credit card companies finally recognizing write-offs on bad debt....the debt doesn't exist wasn't paid off, just wrote off.

Article I saw said about 90% of the payoff was really write off.

Seriously, what would people be paying down debt with?  How many unused Harleys do you see in your neighborhood garages?   BTW, what that mean is that if you wanted a $25K Harley, you might be able to get it for $7K in the near future, if you are smart enough to preserve capital.

All those extra jobs and increasing income while expenses go down?   Don't be deceived.

Tsunami and Aloha and a Gas Short EQT

I may editorialize this later, but for it is.

I used to work for this company. They operated on big egos, fast decisions, and absurd risk to reward ratios which do actually work for a while.  My favorite....the chopstick reversal on the weekly.    Afraid to short on weakness?  Expect more weakness.

PRS133 (PRS Guitars blogger creation) is astounding.

Using the search bar at top of this blog, type in PRS and you will see a number of posts related to the PRS 133. If you are not using this channel tool, you are leaving information on the table. Check it out, it is uncanny.

Fear Factor (Nailed by the VIX)

Updated post today, in response to a reader asking for some interpretation. Like this stuff? Sign up as a's just a click folks, and it let's me know that maybe someone appreciates the efforts.

Below is the Fear Factor (FF)--
Including the numerator and denominator charts. The Precious Metals combo I created (which incidentally, EWI just 'lifted' and started using a very similar thing) is about as flat lined as a boneless chicken. The USD is pretty flat too, with the Euro (it's main counterparty) meandering around on a significant 38 Fib.

And the SPY it also flat lined. Therefore the VIX is having it's way with the Fear Factor indicator, check the charts, they will give you a good understand of this animal I call Fear Factor.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Daily Fear Factor (FF) after the close, and Obama-nomics, be very afraid

Flyaway Doji Reversal? or Gap and Run Bullishness?  the Fear Factor Doesn't Lie, It Just Sometimes Doesn't speak clearly

Obama preaches that the Health care bill could drop premiums by 3000% percent, and then says....your employer could then give you a raise!

The price of a service could fall by 100%, no more. But maybe this is a freudian slip, maybe they expect premiums could go up 3000%, that is possible although still seems far-fetched.

I am not joking, here is the proof!

Fear Factor Update, Tricky, so tricky, CALLING A TOP

How can one have a bias these days when there are so many conflicting chart patterns. 

How can we trade quad witching week as the Obama-nation health care is being pimped to the max?

Fear factor is signalling bullish, it jumped past the upper channel line.  

But the Euro could break down (swat down from a big 38 Fib), or rocket up out of it's basing pattern.

St. Patty Day Shenanigans (aka Fib Fan from 1932)

Part of my name was named after St Patrick.   So do I get the luck of the Irish today, or more shenanigans?

Haven't established a new short position in a long time.  Might do so today. 

The 1932 Fib Fan also says...thou shalt not pass.   But we will see, this is Quad-Witch Week.  I will short this if it doesn't keep advancing.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Euro (the $52,000 question)

Ye' Old PRS 133 is still in play.   The great evil bald one speaketh tomorrow, to hasten the fall of the Euro with pro-dollar meanderings?  Only the banksters know tonight.

Daylight savings time - Brutal for Hawaii Trading

9:55 AM and the pre-closing bell was going off on my computer.

Daylight savings time has struck again.   Hawaii doesn't change with daylight savings time, but the rest of the mainland does.   That pushes opening bell to 3:30 AM, which is brutal, way brutal. 

I have traded that in the past, sleep at 9PM, up at 2:30 or 3:00.

Work demands won't really allow this right now, so hopefully some swing trading will be effective, but that is questionable, since "they" will be whipsawing this top all over the place.  

Today suckered in some bears, and then whipsawed them out of positions with the end of day ramp. 

I sold the close on futures.

Biggest crash, fastest recovery - From Bespoke

Sometimes a chart speaks a thousand words.  This one from Bespoke does.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

SPX fib Fan from 1932 and the 9 year (468 week moving average)

Just saying, this would be an opportune time for a pull back.

Another index, the HARPEX, focuses on containers freight. It provides an insight on the transport of a much wider base of commercial goods than commodities alone.

Another index, the HARPEX, focuses on containers freight. It provides an insight on the transport of a much wider base of commercial goods than commodities alone.

China has been buying up alot of commodities, that pumps the Baltic Dry index up.

The Harpex looks like it could be at a bottom, or it could tank further.  


These are some screen caps taken from a Google gadget on my desktop that shows earthquakes over mag 4 throughout the world.