Friday, August 3, 2012

Wheel Coming off the Cart

This is what it looks like as a loose wheel gets worse and worse, the oscillations get bigger and bigger.    In other words, the wheel is starting to come off the cart that is careening downhill with a bunch of crack smoking banksters.

Land of the Lost

You ever see that old Movie?   

No not this joke of a TV show....almost forgot that one

In California, which has the nation's third-highest unemployment rate at 10.7%, the state has shifted unemployment workers to disability insurance and tax processing after losing federal support.
Rhode Island, meanwhile, laid off 65 workers, most of them on temporary assignment, after running out of stimulus funds. This comes even as the state still battles a 10.9% unemployment rate, the second-highest in the nation.
The state would need $4.6 million to keep them on for another year, said Laura Hart, spokeswoman for the Department of Labor and Training.
"We couldn't stretch it any longer," she said of the additional federal administrative funds. To top of page

Unemployment up

We could probably over analyze the heck out of this, but it seems simple.

There is a new group of people becoming unemployed.    The old group that gave up after years have found their crimes, crags list sales, and underground economy and have long been off the list of unemployed.

MCP possible long from Zstock, cartel take down look to it.

Went back in long, since this is a "buy all day, day"

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Lots of dollar bulls

Could be just that Europe is so messed up, the US Dollar is the currency I hate the most, except for all the rest.    But this blog using data from sentimenttrader, shows a peak in USD bulls, which usually follows with a drop.

Long Bias, JCI HON look fugly though

I have had a long bias this last week or so, and that is sure not working so far.    HOG short is my only winner. 

Those hoping for a strong Fed "statement" of action to buoy markets were certainly disappointed.   At least for now.    Overall, the "wrong sectors" are leading advances, whereas in a "good advance" the Nasdaq and Russell would lead, they have been weak.   See chart at bottom for comparison of all 4.

My slant is upward, with the trepidation of establishing more longs after being whipped out of 4 positions with losses.     Indeed long is the "hard trade" here.  

Funny how after a few down days the mind can start seeing bearish patterns.  JCI and HON for instance.

JCI and HON, Johnson Controls and Honeywell  are my own "bellweathers" of overall economy.   In the great Keysian Debacle (2007,2008,2009) they both went into sharp downward sloping wedges before the ramp from hell.

Now they are both sporting bear, Johnson with a massive multi year head and shoulders, and Honeywell with a near term rising wedge whcih is bearish, and lots of air beneath. 

Other stuff I have says a long trade is good probability, and I still conspiracize that  after stop raids and busting the bubble of the big Ben hopefuls, that it would be perfect time to ramp up.

My other custom indicators, FF, VOS, various put calls, and derivatives and ratios thereof, are not calling for much in particular, they don't fire signals that often, but when they do, moves can be large.

Dow Transports looks like it is about to fall off a cliff, but it is also at support, in the new HAL 20000 age that we trade in, that probably means a false break on the support prior to ramp, if such occurs.   Doesn't Barry want his job back anyway? 

Got whipped out of 4 positions today, realized losses, GSVC was within pennies of low of day and immediate recovery, very annoying, especially when that is happening at 3:30 AM Hawaii time, and I just can't be up  for the market. 

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

One of the GREAT LIES, the stock market return

One of the great lies is how much the "stock market" returns as an investment.   People use an index to calculate this.  the MAIN problem with this approach is that the indices are not a static thing.    They kick out the laggards and bring in the sweethearts, they add and take away ticker symbols on a regular basis.

Thus creating one of the great lies.   Therefore it is funny that Bill Gross of the "smart Bond guy" club completely misses this point of rebalancing.

 Also funny (not really) is how old so many people have become in the handful of years since the financial debacle.   Look around you.    This crisis has had some major impacts on people whether they admit it or not.    Lots of stress, lots of disease.    Check Bill Gross below.   


Bill Gross: We’re Witnessing the Death of Equities

Bloomberg News
Bill Gross
The bond king says stocks are dead.
Bill Gross, Pimco’s co-founder and co-chief investment officer, says stock investors should think again about the age-old “buy-and-hold” investing mantra. He says consistent, annual returns are a thing of the past.
“The cult of equity is dying,” Bill Gross wrote in his August Investment Outlook. “Like a once bright green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors’ impressions of ‘stocks for the long run’ or any run have mellowed as well.”
Gross points out stocks have averaged a 6.6% annual gain on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1912. But he labels that rate of return as an “historical freak” that isn’t likely to be duplicated anytime soon, due to slowing economic growth around the globe. From Gross:
“The 6.6% real return belied a commonsensical flaw much like that of a chain letter or yes — a Ponzi scheme. If wealth or real GDP was only being created at an annual rate of 3.5% over the same period of time, then somehow stockholders must be skimming 3% off the top each and every year. If an economy’s GDP could only provide 3.5% more goods and services per year, then how could one segment (stockholders) so consistently profit at the expense of the others (lenders, laborers and government)?”
Gross wonders how stocks can keep appreciating at a 6.6% annual rate in this “new normal” economy, in which GDP growth remains stubbornly low.

Bill and Ben from 2007

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Long Euro

Got to take the trade I see, regardless of the great evil bald one who speaketh tomorrow.

Bikinis in Hawaii, Secret of Blog Sucess

I have discovered the secret to having alot of hit....promise bikinis, please review the data

 Here are some of the tidbits that you may have missed.


Trader Tax.....they want you to stop trading and go to work at Walmart!


Interactive Brokers would like to inform clients of the French Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) enacted in March 2012 and which comes into force 1 August 2012. Key information regarding the tax is provided below:  Tax Rate: The rate is currently set at 0.20%  Tax Base: The tax is assessed on the purchase of certain French equities. The French Ministry of Finance has released a list of 109 French companies whose securities are subject to the FTT. The tax is due on the net position delivered on settlement date, as such purchases and sales which settle at a common depository will be eligible to be netted for determination of the tax.  Effective Date: The FTT is applicable to trades of August 1, 2012. IB anticipates charges to customer accounts shortly after this date  Transaction Types: The FTT will be applied to both exchange trades as well as delivery of shares on exercise of an option or future contract. The FTT may also be applicable to shares received from a corporate action; however at this time the full scope of the corporate action types subject to FTT is unconfirmed.  For a current list of companies subject to FTT as of August 1, 2012 click here ( ).

Debunking the Muni Bond

HIlarious---after the lead SEC Commissioner states that the muni-Bond market is illiquid, opaque, and huge, and "recommending" that investors deserve full disclosure like in other financial markets.

However, this plays out at the same time as the Economic Hit Man recommending that financial advisors be absolved of all liability in recommending muni-bonds.   Many muni-bonds income will be exempt from the new 3.8% Obama tax hike.

Individual investors hold 75% of all the Muni Bonds, aha!  I have discovered the true "retail" market. It is large too, a $3.7 trillion market


The powers that be want to consolidate power.   They have been taught that the current world set-up is a free for fall of power and corruption, and they might as well dance while the music is still playing.

After all, what is there to lose----if you get caught there are two options:
If resign from the board, take your $18M parachute and go chase some concubines around in Uruguay or whatever.

If Public, you go in front of a sham investigative committee, get them to create some additional withdrawal of public freedoms to "crack down", and then you resign so that you can be hired by the industry that you were formerly regulating and thus "go to heaven" as it is called in the corrupt world of government and nuclear cartel such as the TEPCO / Gov arena.

But I digress, after Commissioner Walter declared them illiquid and opaque, without protection of investor disclosure, then she jumps into the Kumbaiya land of wishful thinking (and responsibility avoidance)....

....not necessarily proposing extensive new federal regulations and that it couldn’t expand its authority over the market much more without action from Congress. She said the integrity of the market would be best served by having the participants in bond transactions “join hands” to improve their practices voluntarily

But these bonds are safe right?   Not so.

A handful of municipalities have recently tried to get out of their obligations to bondholders by declaring bankruptcy. And bankers have gone on trial for taking advantage of cities and states through bid rigging. 
 Beyond just these problems, financial firms charge big markups when investors buy and sell the bonds, and of course most of this is hidden in the details.

So next time your broker is pimping out some Muni's, think about saving 3.8% on income of say 5% on your principal.   So on 100k investment, $5000 income per year and you can save 3.8% of that or roughly $200.

So for a $200 savings, you can place $100,000 at risk.    And the Economic Hit Man is pushing things this direction.    Makes you say Hmmmmm

Its a win-win-win-win though   

1) Financial advisers continue to make huge money, thus helping to pump up the US GDP reports

2) Municipalities get to go back to spending money like drunken sailors getting the union guys off the bench and getting money to flow into union coffers which then flows in to campaign contributions thus also helping to consolidate power,

3) Retail money is brought off the sidelines and "into play" increasing the liquidity of these bonds like a melting bowl of jello that Lucy can pull the rug out form more easily, and let the HBB distribute their Muni bond holdings.

4) As Muni's go bankrupt, the Fed can jump into "saving" bond holders at 80cents on the dollars while extracting power and debt over the Municipalities to keep them in line, more power consolidation at the Federal level.    The New World Disorder Embryo.  

Monday, July 30, 2012

Debunking an Urban Myth

Been hearing talk of how you can buy gold coins in China at 0.15% over spot, which sounded amazing so I went to the exact mentioned bank at one article, and found the premium was over 5%.

Makes you say......hmmmmmm

One benefit of having 1 ounce Perth mint Bars instead of coins, is that they are not "monetary instruments", and thus less reporting requirements for moving gold in bar form around.     I have seen legit deals of Perth Mint 1 ounce at $32 over spot, which is around 2%, or a pretty reasonable "pouring cost".

Short HOG (Harley Davidson), LONG ERF, LONG AONE

Perfect long term channel overthrow to the B177 and then H&S at a top (the best place for them), and now a failing backtest.   Got some short, probably take a speculative option play or even sell some call spread.

AONE, this could double, or be the proverbial 10 bagger that I have never seen.

Boatload O Charts

Custom indicators aren't showing likliehood of any huge moves at the moment, but pretty bullish on market, based on presidential cycle and the amount of bad news out there, also Olympics gives a pyschological boost to the world.    

Those Wallstreeters are like frat boys, they love doing high fives and sports.

Tax for Traders

This is a tax guide for Traders, a tricky subject, and somewhat left open to interpretation.   If you treat your trading as a real trading business, you can deduct all losses (not just limited to $3000) but there are also large ramifications.    However, capturing losses should not be a prime driver, cause maybe that just means that something else is just not right about your "business".  

And make sure your paid tax professional agrees with any interpretations, as it could be disastrous to make an assumption and then have it not work out.