Saturday, November 10, 2012

Gold about to become a "1st Class Asset"


Little known fact...few have even heard of the Council of Basel (aka The Basel Banking Syndicate). Basel III is about to go into effect on January 1, 2013. Gold to be increased from a 3rd Class asset (only able to loan 50% of value as collateral for loans) to a 1st Class Asset (able to use 100% as collateral for loans (same as government securities). This is why central banks, formerly the enemies of gold, have been for the past 2+ years, been net buyers of gold bullion. Each year, the number of tons of gold bought by the central banks is increasing. Gold is about to be treated the same as "money" by the bankers. BIG shift. Just thought I would let you guys know...fore warned is fore armed.

Friday, November 9, 2012

VOS Volatility on Steroids

This one look perfect, a sub normal overthrow, now a nice basing pattern back to the normal long term low zone, somewhat inverted head and shoulders.....

If VOS rockets up, equity prices will rocket down.

NZD Indicator, Backtest of a Wedge Break VERY BEARISH

This stealth bear drop has been effective,
No one shouting P3
Not many bears jumping in short
Instead, trying to buy the dip

My indicator say there is more downside immediately ahead.   Whilst we sit here complacent.  

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Solar Eclipse and Lunar Eclipse in November

The Puetz window commeth:

"He showed that 8 of the 12 greatest stock market crashes in history from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 to the Tokyo crash in 1990 fell within a time frame of six days before to three days after a full moon (usually also a lunar eclipse) that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of this happening by chance are estimated to be less than one chance in 127,000. He also explained that a lunar eclipse full moon close to solar eclipses seem to be the triggering event that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia."

Per NASA, there is a solar eclipse on NOV 13th, and a lunar eclipse on NOV 28th.

ES dropping and Gold is Up, Decoupling

I been trading the short side since the NZD/JPY indicator showed a clear cut and long lasting Blimp Swat Down.    

Surprised to see Gold up and ES down after my "nap".   Its daylight savings here, which means market opens at 4:30 and stay open to 11.   That is ALOT better to trade than 3:30 and 10.  

I have shorts on SHW, NBR, and NZD/JPY.

ES looks oversold from and RSI point of view, AND getting big Bernoulli support at 2 long term channels.    So this could be bounce point, to wipe out the weak handed new bears trading on the election story.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

counties won by Dem Rep

This Wall Street Journal site is awesome.

Strongholds of the Republicans
  1. Areas that actually "work" and produce, are massively Romney.   They in fact "are building that".

Strongholds of the Dems
  1. Old school areas on large bodies of water.  They are still living on past glory, looking for modern day handouts on the shoulders of our grandchildren.
  2. Hard hit areas from oil spills, hurricanes, are quite a bit Dem, looking for handouts.   Looking for Big Bro to save them.
  3. Areas with lots of immigrants.

Pretty simple really.
The black outline ones here are the counties that Obama won, very few geographically, but high density for electoral votes.   The blue shaded area have become "more democratic voting" since 2008

Below are the counties that Romney won, sheesh, anyone looking at this would say why is he not the president!

Here is the source website, check it out!

 Red is big win for Republicans

Blue is big win for Democrats

You know, if each party serves as a Watchdog on the other party, wouldn't it be better to have 3 or 4 watchdogs if that were really true? 

Or are these watchdogs just deciding how to split up the sheep?

Risk off, eh Mate?

Hey, if you like this stuff, sign up as a follower, I haven't had many new followers in a few weeks.  Thanks.

This is a huge and nicely formed Blimp of Doom. People use the AUD/JPY as a risk on/risk off indicator. Which is fine, but that one is gamed more because it is so popular, this one --New Zealand---is more organic.

I am shorting this directly.   This would likely drive US equities down, and also PM's unless big fear come into play, bouying up PM.


Taxes or Death, take your pick

Dabama get some tax "cuts" in place in order to get elected, it worked for him.

Needless to say, I am not your tax advisor, however I did buy this book on Amazon, and it cuts to the chase, I bought it in 2012, but it helped for 2011, saving $3500 or so for me, which is sure worth it for a few hours of sun tan reading.    Its a big book, you skim it.

sheesh it's less than $13 and free super saver shipping  

For sure--starting in less than 2 months, you can expect--

  1. Income tax rates are going up
  2. Capital gains rates are going up
  3. Rates on dividends are going up
  4. Estate and gift tax exclusions are going down.
It is often better to "kick the can" down the road in terms of income, but that theory may not apply anymore.

For 2012 it may be best to recognize all the income that you can, even get people to "pre-pay" for 2013 services at a bit of a discount.   And then protect 2012 income best you can with any deductions that can come to play.  

Oil Investments
Solar Investments
Write off bad debts (if you collect them later you still have to them claim as income)
Write off any theft of other losses

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Golden Years

I love these new Canadian gold bars, with serial numbers.   At I haven't seen $22 over spot since gold was $600.   Usually it is $60 over spot.   

This is a backtest of the downtrend B177 line, the black line, drawn thick in the sand. We could see 2000 by year end.   With Obama in office and Bennie and the Jets printing their hearts out, will at least protect some wealth.

Libertarian party got 1% of the vote.


Monday, November 5, 2012

Sunday, November 4, 2012

They depend on other's dependency

I read it on the net somewhere today, and I can't get it out of my head.

"There are those who depend upon your dependency"

Think about that in this post Sandy lesson.  

This whole idea of "grow our way" out of debt, is really insane, as we lead more and more unsustainable lives.     The powers that be do not want self-sufficient people.    They depend on dependent people to create the gerbil cage and wheel to run on.

and from Peter Dag blog

If there is anything we can learn from history is that a country goes through five major phases in its development. Phase 1. Free people generate growth.
Phase 2. Growth creates wealth.
Phase 3. Wealth is followed by concentration of power.
Phase 4. Concentration of power causes stagnation.
Phase 5. Stagnation is followed by discontent (Greece, Spain, Italy, Arab Spring). Why is Europe stagnant for years? Excessive concentration of power - political and financial.

Original Chart, of the Beach as a Word, and Gold

How are the Beach and Gold related?

Gold Net Short Commercials

Gold commercial futures traders are ALWAYS net short, just a matter of how short they are.

As of last Tuesday, announced last Friday, they were about 220,000 net short.   That is on the high side, thus indicating that we probably don't have a bottom in for gold.   

Check out this chart from Breakpoint Trades
Keep in mind these are only for major tops and major bottoms.

I think we may swing down more

The gold bar is from Liberty Coin and Precious Metals.   Tell em steveo sent you

2 Shark Attacks in One Day

Last week there was also a shark attack in Maui where I used to always spearfish.

Things are getting dicey out there.