I am pretty tired of talking to myself on this blog, thanks for those that have visited, supported our sponsors and thus us, and commented, including many really great chart posts.
After 2000 page views in the last week, 3 comments, and $3.31 (no joke) in ad revenue, I am pretty tired and will concentrate on getting ready for a possible Primary Wave 3 Down to S&P below 200.
In which case the Shit Hits the Fan in a number of ways, and you best be strong, healthy, weaponized, connected, have alternate transportation, friends in other countries, and precious metals stored in a safe place (your safe is not good enough, unless it is very good), and ability to adapt.
Will this happen now, or five years from now, or with Media control, perhaps never --- if people can be convinced that a shitty life is actually good, my version of the Matrix, people believing that they are free and working their hearts out, only to have the wealth created transferred to the powers that be. The Matrix.
I may post occasionally, and please feel free to email me directly at
stock ( a -t ) hawaii.rr.com
Saturday, February 26, 2011
ACT - Asset Class Total
Money flows from one asset to another, so if we can follow this trail we can make better judgments of the overall market. At least that is the preliminary theory.
Then comes leverage, margin, ETF's, futures, and just plain borrowing. Perhaps we should throw in QE-1 QE-2 although I don't think those actually increase the money supply, they just refinancing the debt coming due and support T-bill prices so that other "private" money is actually forced into riskier assets. I do think it is that simple.
Well all the funny money, compounding by the all important "Con"fidence, does actually work to float all boats at the same time, and I don't mean just stocks.
Think about it, stocks going up, housing going up, PM going up, Bonds going up. Does that make any sense? Well as Dash of Insight proposed last Sunday the 20th before the "correction week" of why the market will go up....because the beat goes on. Maybe the " 'ol Prof" called the top with this one.
Dash of Insight blog
Although my current thinking is that we are SIMPLY IN AN INDECISION MODE, with the most likely thing that the uptrend continues.
Remember Chuck Prince, still dancing with the stars in his eyes after all these years...
Prince still Dancing
I did in fact call the top on 2-8-2011
Calling the Top (or close enough)
However, a key note -- the bears have not started salivating yet. Lucy has took the ball away one too many times, and in the endless trickery of the market, this would be the perfect time for a big drop, say on weekend news, so that the bears, waiting for "confirmation" miss a big move, say 10% on Monday and Tuesday, then as they jump in short, the HBB ramps the shit out of the market. Just saying, one scenario.
This "ACT" is something I need to spend a few hours on and refine. For now it stands as is. Declaring complete uncertainty.
Then comes leverage, margin, ETF's, futures, and just plain borrowing. Perhaps we should throw in QE-1 QE-2 although I don't think those actually increase the money supply, they just refinancing the debt coming due and support T-bill prices so that other "private" money is actually forced into riskier assets. I do think it is that simple.
Well all the funny money, compounding by the all important "Con"fidence, does actually work to float all boats at the same time, and I don't mean just stocks.
Think about it, stocks going up, housing going up, PM going up, Bonds going up. Does that make any sense? Well as Dash of Insight proposed last Sunday the 20th before the "correction week" of why the market will go up....because the beat goes on. Maybe the " 'ol Prof" called the top with this one.
Dash of Insight blog
Although my current thinking is that we are SIMPLY IN AN INDECISION MODE, with the most likely thing that the uptrend continues.
Remember Chuck Prince, still dancing with the stars in his eyes after all these years...
Prince still Dancing
I did in fact call the top on 2-8-2011
Calling the Top (or close enough)
However, a key note -- the bears have not started salivating yet. Lucy has took the ball away one too many times, and in the endless trickery of the market, this would be the perfect time for a big drop, say on weekend news, so that the bears, waiting for "confirmation" miss a big move, say 10% on Monday and Tuesday, then as they jump in short, the HBB ramps the shit out of the market. Just saying, one scenario.
This "ACT" is something I need to spend a few hours on and refine. For now it stands as is. Declaring complete uncertainty.
Comment for Us Commodities Futures Trading
Here is the link directly to the form. Tell the CFTC just what you think about the manipulated casino that the futures market has now become, doubling the cost of the most basic commodities that we need to live on daily basis.
http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=965
Here is my comment below, the other 112 pages of comments (thus 1120 comments) seem to be 98% parroting of one idea to withhold silver position limits to 1500 instead of 5000 -- 5000 is like 3 years of world annual production of silver -- welcome to the casino. And that is not 5000 total positions, that is 5000 held by one entity without even considering shenanigans like JPM saying "well there was another 5000 held by Calpers" but we were just the managing agent, they picked the "investment".
Futures are used in the real world to control costs, protect profits, reduce liability. Real people, producing real commodities, producing real good that people use and consume.
Of they are also used as a trading vehicle, of which I consider some trading to be useful as to a price discovery.
But there is a vast amount of trading that is simply absurd manipulation of the marketplace. Too much wealth is landed in too few places, add in a little bit of collusion, or the convenient excuse of "Quants following quants" and you have ridiculous moves in the futures.
These moves only serve to further enrich those who already have too much control over the markets.
Please take MANIPULATED CASINO out of the futures markets. And don't just go after breaches by the small guys who you can easily win the case against (or get an easy plea)--this just wastes time and energy, while the big players continue with their immoral capture of wealth created by others. Go after the mother-load, and let them know, prosecution in coming, and as the CEO's and CFO's at the top, let them know that they are responsible for the actions of their organizations....they cannot use their advisers as scapegoat shields.
http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=965
Here is my comment below, the other 112 pages of comments (thus 1120 comments) seem to be 98% parroting of one idea to withhold silver position limits to 1500 instead of 5000 -- 5000 is like 3 years of world annual production of silver -- welcome to the casino. And that is not 5000 total positions, that is 5000 held by one entity without even considering shenanigans like JPM saying "well there was another 5000 held by Calpers" but we were just the managing agent, they picked the "investment".
From: Steveo Organization(s):
PES
PES
Comment No: 30381
Date: 2/27/2011
Comment Text:Date: 2/27/2011
Futures are used in the real world to control costs, protect profits, reduce liability. Real people, producing real commodities, producing real good that people use and consume.
Of they are also used as a trading vehicle, of which I consider some trading to be useful as to a price discovery.
But there is a vast amount of trading that is simply absurd manipulation of the marketplace. Too much wealth is landed in too few places, add in a little bit of collusion, or the convenient excuse of "Quants following quants" and you have ridiculous moves in the futures.
These moves only serve to further enrich those who already have too much control over the markets.
Please take MANIPULATED CASINO out of the futures markets. And don't just go after breaches by the small guys who you can easily win the case against (or get an easy plea)--this just wastes time and energy, while the big players continue with their immoral capture of wealth created by others. Go after the mother-load, and let them know, prosecution in coming, and as the CEO's and CFO's at the top, let them know that they are responsible for the actions of their organizations....they cannot use their advisers as scapegoat shields.
If you make a comment it is immediately posted, and I reviewed some others that seemed pretty good
- From: Heather Lane
Organization(s):
FAUComment No: 30379
Date: 2/27/2011Comment Text:
Dear Chairman Gensler and fellow Commissioners:
I urge you to approve the staff’s proposal on position limits, including limiting exemptions to bona fide hedgers. I would ask you, however, to readjust the proposed formula in silver. The current formula would result in a position limit of over 5,000 contracts for any single speculator, on an all-months-combined basis. 5,000 contracts is the equivalent of 25 million ounces of silver. This is too high of a threshold in light of the realities of the world silver market.
There are only three mining companies in the world who produce more than 25 million ounces of silver per year and only a similar number of industrial consumers using more than that amount. Any speculator holding an amount of silver derivatives greater than what 99% of the world’s silver producers and consumers make or use in a year would have inordinate pricing power. The purpose of speculative position limits is to prevent such a circumstance.
Please institute a 1500 contract (7.5 million ounce) position limit for silver.
History will remember you as the heroes who started the clean-up of the 100-on-paper for one physical ounce of silver. IMF's planned $100 Trillion in paper SDR's would make the Western paper mess only bigger, with somewhat later even more catastrophic results certainly for the USA and Europe. Together you can put the legendary stone in its rightful place to make the river now take the safe direction, a first big step to restore Constitutional and thus physical money, to help the West arise from its paper ashes.
Sincerely,
Heather Lane
BUT interesting to note as I skimmed another 20 comments that almost all were a parroting of the above, so all coming from another source that pointed tot he CTFC site and gave them text to copy and paste.
There were some fairly original ones, I have to agree with. I had a silver short that got swept perfectly, just before last weeks massive move down. Annoying? Far past annoying. Manipulation that cost me probably $10,000. That goes beyond annoying. Corrupt manipulation by those who have too much information on market placement of stops and other orders. It is obvious.
- From: Jan Louis Bleys
Organization(s):
independent self-employed
fan of Ted Butler
investor with some hope for a pensionComment No: 30301
Date: 2/27/2011Comment Text:
Chairman Gensler and members of the CFTC
The COMEX silver shorts still have as much influence over pricing as they demonstrated this week on the afterhours rig jobs they engineered both on Monday and Thursday. While your CFTC’s Enforcement Division is supposedly investigating the silver market and the Commission is debating disruptive trading practices under Dodd –Frank, the commercial crooks on the COMEX are merrily continuing to manipulate through disruptive trading practices as obvious as they get. It is frustrating that the CFTC seems blind to what many can see so clearly. The general perception that the agency is not doing its job diminishes overall trust in government agencies.
JPMorgan is the silver manipulator, by virtue of their concentrated COMEX short position. Id still makes impotent the CFTC and a mockery of commodity law. Recently JPM has been methodically reducing its short position, that has allowed the price of silver to increase markedly. JPMorgan reducing its silver short position is like them slowly releasing the pressure of their boot on the throat of the silver market.
Inspired by JPM new manipulators arose that act collusively to rig prices to their benefit.
Dear Chairman Gensler and members of the CFTC :
can you please stop all manipulation SOON and bring back a FREE market in silver! That would need a position limit in silver of 1500 contracts to bring back some confidence.
(till here I copied freely from Ted Butler's weekend comment 2/26/11)
Dear Chairman Gensler and members of the CFTC :
History will remember you as the heroes who started the clean-up of the 100-on-paper for one physical ounce of silver. IMF's planned $100 Trillion in paper SDR's would make the Western paper mess only bigger, with somewhat later even more catastrophic results certainly for the USA and Europe. Together you can put the legendary stone in its rightful place to make the river now take the safe direction, a first big step to restore Constitutional and thus physical money, to make phoenix West arise from its paper ashes.
Do you think the facilitators of the Great Ponzi really care what we all think?
-
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Thought on Solar as an Investment
COMMENTS APPRECIATED
Thought of a few things, that I think are critical to any analysis of PV.
Primary Thoughts
You pay your electric bill with after tax dollars.
Everything your PV makes offsets those after tax dollars. PV is thus a way to make income without that income being taxed at all.
Energy rates are likely to go up, as they do your effective tax free income goes up accordingly.
Other thoughts….
Hard to do a “net present value” calculation on PV, or at least in comparison to alternate (traditional) investments since the whole game of traditional investments seems to have been stood on it’s head. O% return on stocks over 10 years is a lot different than expecting 7% growth year upon year compounding. Some people say that stocks now have a high PE even though earnings are way up due to job cut efficiencies that will not be sustainable.
Also bond holders of all sorts, may be in for a very cruel awakening, again. Bond values are high, thus yields are jokingly low. Seems like higher interest in the next year or two and continuing for quite some time is almost a guarantee. That will bring existing bond values way down, not even considering default risk or the proverbial 35% “Restructuring” haircut.
Inflation / deflation seems very tough to model, but longer term like 5 years and more seems like all the effective money printing has no choice but to devalue currencies, and thus the value of things that are valued in currencies. This gets wrapped into overall inflation but also speaks directly to the cost of oil and other energy commodities.
Possible reduction of the USD as a reserve currency could drive the cost of energy commodities up.
Derivatives Armageddon, or just your basic run of the mill deleveraging could have a significant downward impact on the value of all sorts of asset classes and investments, some say 50%.
Finishing thought:
Some people say, well but PV does compound in income production like a re-invested CD would. Sure it would, if you took the income from the PV and bought more PV each year, it certainly would compound.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Fear Factor, ACT, PMEI and another free BPT newsletter in full!
This may or may not be the turning of the tides, however, this is the time to leverage your resources and time and starting looking at the best analysis of others to complement your own analysis and your OWN SYSTEM. You have to understand why you are in a trade, or you sure as hell won't have the intestinal fortitude to pull the trigger on the sell.
Technical master Tim Wood has said since the start of the Great Bear Market Rally, that tops are reached when optimism is high and some geopolitical event turns the social mood downward. He is big on cycles of his own design, and Dow Theory.
Breakpoint Trades is also the "Real Deal" IMHO when it comes to Tech. Elliot, Fibonacci, Patterns, studies and indicators are their meat and potatoes, as is mine. You can't watch it, but you can condense 5 hours of research into about 15 minutes (I skim through the newsletters personally when market is not moving that fast. I set up alerts based on the specific stock watchlists that they provide.
The chart below are uniquely that of Hawaii Trading, search for their names in the search box to get more background on them. I designed them over years to help indicate when something is noise, and when it is not noise, or at least when to go to code orange.
They are saying "Code Orange"
Link below is a link to the Full On Newsletter from BPT. Republished by permission, free only to blog participants who come to Hawaii Trading. Enjoy, and drop a comment already!
http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?la_id=1170
Technical master Tim Wood has said since the start of the Great Bear Market Rally, that tops are reached when optimism is high and some geopolitical event turns the social mood downward. He is big on cycles of his own design, and Dow Theory.
Breakpoint Trades is also the "Real Deal" IMHO when it comes to Tech. Elliot, Fibonacci, Patterns, studies and indicators are their meat and potatoes, as is mine. You can't watch it, but you can condense 5 hours of research into about 15 minutes (I skim through the newsletters personally when market is not moving that fast. I set up alerts based on the specific stock watchlists that they provide.
The chart below are uniquely that of Hawaii Trading, search for their names in the search box to get more background on them. I designed them over years to help indicate when something is noise, and when it is not noise, or at least when to go to code orange.
They are saying "Code Orange"
Link below is a link to the Full On Newsletter from BPT. Republished by permission, free only to blog participants who come to Hawaii Trading. Enjoy, and drop a comment already!
Extensive review in tonight's newsletter of the past couple of days.
Have a great evening.
Steve
http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?la_id=1170
Soybeans
We noticed Soybeans yesterday, first time i ever looked at Soybeans in my life, so of course even though the chart was tasty, I wasn't about to jump in to a trade.
But this was an amazing drop, check it out.
Here is what we posted yesterday -- NAILED IT
But this was an amazing drop, check it out.
Here is what we posted yesterday -- NAILED IT
Fiber is Stronger than Silver?
Review this silver chart, I mean really really review it.
And below, a new chart for me EUR/GBP, in a huge triangles, may have just tagged the walls 5 times, and in my book that means out the other side, i.e. Euro losing ground much faster than the GBP.
No guarantees, it could go the other way too.
And below, a new chart for me EUR/GBP, in a huge triangles, may have just tagged the walls 5 times, and in my book that means out the other side, i.e. Euro losing ground much faster than the GBP.
No guarantees, it could go the other way too.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Free Real Deal Newsletter on Commodities BPT
Read this and then sign up on the left hand side of my blog. BPT is a seperate party completely, but they follow the same tech stuff I do.
And they chart it professionally, every day, and weekend.
Seriously one you read through this, if you are a technical analyst of any sort, you will want to buy this product because it will increase your view, condensing hours of work into minutes and dollars of your time.
Leverage your time using small money. It is that simple.
BPT Full on Commodity Newsletter
And they chart it professionally, every day, and weekend.
Seriously one you read through this, if you are a technical analyst of any sort, you will want to buy this product because it will increase your view, condensing hours of work into minutes and dollars of your time.
Leverage your time using small money. It is that simple.
BPT Full on Commodity Newsletter
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Trading to Win
A comment I left at Trading to Win...visit them.
http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/
David, great rant.
Charts are really small, cant see the tickers even on blow up.
I think between you, me, and Deej are the only people in this country that "get it" and sometimes I worry about you guys....
Seriously, I grew up in midwest, durings 60's 70's and sometime in the 80s people "got it" that we were f'n up our land...and it started improving and now it is pretty good at least for this cycle.
Now I see Hawaii falling down the same path, killing ourselves to live, rather than investing the boom years into infrastructure and education and beautification, Hawaii has completely squandered all the free and precious gifts it had from the get go, and all the "free income" of people coming here dropping thousands each. It goes beyond being just a joke, it is a tragedy.
It must be like you moving to America and seeing hope and growth and and then having the worst possible decisions be made on a grand level.
try laughing>?
http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/
David, great rant.
Charts are really small, cant see the tickers even on blow up.
I think between you, me, and Deej are the only people in this country that "get it" and sometimes I worry about you guys....
Seriously, I grew up in midwest, durings 60's 70's and sometime in the 80s people "got it" that we were f'n up our land...and it started improving and now it is pretty good at least for this cycle.
Now I see Hawaii falling down the same path, killing ourselves to live, rather than investing the boom years into infrastructure and education and beautification, Hawaii has completely squandered all the free and precious gifts it had from the get go, and all the "free income" of people coming here dropping thousands each. It goes beyond being just a joke, it is a tragedy.
It must be like you moving to America and seeing hope and growth and and then having the worst possible decisions be made on a grand level.
try laughing>?
Cable and Fiber taken as a short
An interesting tidbit from history. The currency pair Great British Pound / United States Dollar is nicknamed "the Cable".
Way back when, 1855, they tried to lay a cable across the ocean floor from Britain to what was labeled as "British America" and now known as Canada. They tried 5 times, failing in 1857, failing twice in 1858. Anyhow it kind of worked in 1858, until Mr. Whitehouse "overclocked" the cable with too much voltage trying to get faster telegraph operation. He smoked the cable. Hmmmm, some things never change.
Obviously, these were huge financial losses and they didn't try again until 1865. After 14 days at sea, and 1000 miles of cable payed out, somehow the cable snapped, leaving half a million pounds of cable on the bottom of the ocean, the end was lost.
Mr. Field went back to the grindstone, issued a prospectus (think of IPO maybe) and gathered up enough money to try it again in 1866. They did it. This new cable using a flexible design of 7 strands of high quality copper wrapped in a helix form could transmit EIGHT WORDS PER MINUTE! 50 times faster than previous cables.
Keep in mind, there was no radio, it didn't exist. People liked the cable so much they grappled 2.5 miles deep to find the old 1865 cable, after much ado, found it, surfaced it, and connected it to a new cable and completed the connection.
Making 2 Cables across the Atlantic! Funny that the Wikileaks emails were termed "cables" isn't that curious. So besides some important government communication and high price corporate telegraphs, do you know what the cable was used for?? Trading currency, the GBP / USD affectionately known as "The Cable",
The EUR/USD became known as "The Fiber"
I just recently coined the GBP/JPY as "The Satcom". That pair moves exceptionally fast.
Way back when, 1855, they tried to lay a cable across the ocean floor from Britain to what was labeled as "British America" and now known as Canada. They tried 5 times, failing in 1857, failing twice in 1858. Anyhow it kind of worked in 1858, until Mr. Whitehouse "overclocked" the cable with too much voltage trying to get faster telegraph operation. He smoked the cable. Hmmmm, some things never change.
Obviously, these were huge financial losses and they didn't try again until 1865. After 14 days at sea, and 1000 miles of cable payed out, somehow the cable snapped, leaving half a million pounds of cable on the bottom of the ocean, the end was lost.
Mr. Field went back to the grindstone, issued a prospectus (think of IPO maybe) and gathered up enough money to try it again in 1866. They did it. This new cable using a flexible design of 7 strands of high quality copper wrapped in a helix form could transmit EIGHT WORDS PER MINUTE! 50 times faster than previous cables.
Keep in mind, there was no radio, it didn't exist. People liked the cable so much they grappled 2.5 miles deep to find the old 1865 cable, after much ado, found it, surfaced it, and connected it to a new cable and completed the connection.
Making 2 Cables across the Atlantic! Funny that the Wikileaks emails were termed "cables" isn't that curious. So besides some important government communication and high price corporate telegraphs, do you know what the cable was used for?? Trading currency, the GBP / USD affectionately known as "The Cable",
The EUR/USD became known as "The Fiber"
I just recently coined the GBP/JPY as "The Satcom". That pair moves exceptionally fast.
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