Thursday, October 7, 2010

The $20T Heist and some very Shearish Indicators

Probably the total theft of the so called financial crisis is about $20T, at least for now.

Check out this movie.

PS we don't say the B word around here anymore, just shear, shear the market.

Check out these indicators, methinks extremely shearish.

Thursday Post -- Jimmy Carters solar Panel inflation predictor

I hear Obama is going to put solar panels on the white house again. You know what happened right when Jimmy Carter did that? Huge double digit inflation for multiple years. That is the aftermath of "an oil crisis". That seems the most likely outcome, big inflation on things you really need. 46" Plasma will probably get cheap.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The disconnect between bonds and equities has been touted here in the past.

Tim Knight picked up on that same subject with a stellar chart as is his forte'

A post below is awesome:
kea11Indeed the equity catch up may not be the direction, the spring may well unwind the other way. Thats why I am standing aside.

It would seem that two former economic super powers and pragmatic allies have the same economic aim and need, yet to achieve that aim they must act as adversaries while their mutual and historic foe gives the bird to them both.

There are too many Macro influences slopping around the Globe. China, the US and Japan are shaping off to protect their individual economies. One in the Doldrums for years, another under water and the third attempting to impress. 

The flight to bonds of all sorts  has been going for well over  year.   They are overpriced, and thus the interest rate (aka yield) is under priced.   bond price and interest rate are exactly related by mathematics, there is no arbitrage there.

This game will not end well for most people.

Be Careful, but check it out, new gold miner actually producing

Petaquilla Highlights Operating Performance
Marketwire via Yahoo! Finance
Wed, 06 Oct 2010 09:52 AM PDT
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - 10/06/10) - Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (TSX: PTQ - News )(OTC.BB: PTQMF - News )(Frankfurt: P7Z - News ) ("Petaquilla" or the "Company") announces its September production averaged 2,444tpd, at an average head grade of 3.03g/t, representing a monthly throughput of 7,143 ounces. During the last week of September, production averaged 2,734tpd. This ...

Full disclosure---I own a bunch of this. 

No one ever gets to retire, HBB needs you to work until you are dead


I have stopped shearing, and long ES from 1152.50 based on what appears to be a sucessful test of support, using QQQQ as a (I hope) leading proxy.

POMO today, last time we had back to back POMO and the second POMO was not as big, it was a down day, so we shall see.

Keep an eye on the Yen, it's relation to all the other currencies except the USD is now different compared to its relation to the USD, and normally they are lock step.   

BOJ won't like to see a strengthening Yen, esp in relation to it's major trading partner the US.  Expect shenanigans.

One little gold miner stock I have owned for a while, PTQMF.   Hardly watch it, but it had a Breakpoint type pop up today.   Don't buy on my mention though.    Research them--no time to go into details now, but they are beaten down although ready to produce real gold, in Panama. 

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Best Belly Laugh all month! Fed say bailout cost just $50B

Orwellian madness!  Cost more like $3 to $4T to generate $100B to $150B of GDP.

Moonshot - I just have so little to say......

Wow, my QQQQ puts were decimated from a winning position to a big losing.

HBB likes those quick ramps to trap bears....bears hope for a quick turn down from a blow off top....and then they use taxpayer fund to futher Pomo Me Now Pump the market.  

Took ES futures short at 1157.75 which was a pretty sweet entry, at least stop was abel to be adjusted to small win at worst.

POMO tomorrow, the last for a week

But check this out, pray to the heaven for help

Quant Spider Bots QSB's

I coined that above term , as Robots, but it flows so much better with Bots.

to throw off the QSB's we are now replacing the s word s h o r t with


and shearing shall be associated with Bullish!

Get it?

Monday, October 4, 2010


In response to a comment from a contributing reader...........and this is not meant to be snarky.

Not being  Certified Financial Advisor ( or whatever rating advisors are supposed to have), I can't advise you on whether to "close shorts", heck I can't even advise myself.

I will be watching currencies as they are the 800 lbs gorilla in the room (Gorillas). 
And on a real break of the Fear Factor I will get much more bearish, same with TNX/VIX

Personally I think playing individual stocks is better than indices right now, the indices are highly gamed.  After all they have tax advantage in trading futures that a portion of the gains is taxed at long term capital gains even if you only held the futures for 2 minutes, weird. Those in power make the rules.

I see 8 long breakout stocks for every 2 short stocks.   Although my QQQQ puts just rolled into profitability today, which is nice. 

I do have Google account so if you want to share anything by Google docs, knock yourself out.


Monday Fear Factor

The bears never lost sight of the target.

It doesn't have to happen, but another push up into the new moon would be perfect, moon timing with market seems to be in sync, the last full moon "slowed" the rapid ascent.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Kansas going bye-bye? Cable me if true

Short Portugal

Old article from seeking Alpha

Portugal Now Accessible With New NETS ETF

The Portuguese economy has experienced short-term inflation along with a slight slowdown because of the international credit crisis, but investors still find this country agreeable for investment and worthy of its own ETF.
Portugal is now accessible to investors, thanks to Northern Trust, which launched the NETS PSI-20 Index Fund (LIS), which is tied to the Euronext Lisbon exchange's index of the largest and most liquid stocks trading on its main market, reports Heather Bell for Index Universe.
Portugal's central bank governor cautioned that the country may enter 2009 in an economic slowdown. As with other euro-zone countries, higher oil prices have taken their toll on the economic growth, reports Dow Jones NewsWires on FX Street.
Portugal was the only country of the 15 euro-zone members to suffer an economic contraction during the first quarter. The good news is that efforts will be focused on avoiding second-round effects of the contraction, by upping domestic companies' competitiveness and attracting foreign investment.

A Portugal index -- contributed by a blog participant at BPT -- Puma
And this development just in September, I am researching how to get access to this trading vehicle.

Comstage Launches Portugal ETFs in Lisbon
Written by Staff   
September 07, 2010 12:11 (CET)
Commerzbank subsidiary Comstage yesterday listed two new Portugal ETFs on the NYSE Euronext Lisbon stock exchange.
The Comstage ETF PSI 20 ETF offers investors exposure to the Portuguese benchmark index of 20 of the largest and most liquid shares on the Lisbon stock exchange and carries an annual TER of 0.5%. The other ETF is a leveraged fund based on the same index, with a TER of 0.6% per annum. Both funds reinvest dividends.
Hélio Cláudio, Director Public Distribution International of Commerzbank, said that with the expansion of Comstage’s European ETF range to over 100 trackers, the provider considered the development of the ETF market in Portugal a priority.

More later, but if anyone has information, please chime in

ES moves in 3 and 9's -- Perhaps the most important thing I learned

Rate of Ramp, and Fear Factor

The latest bear Crushing Ramp Job is actually steeper with less pullbacks than the March 2009, climb out of the bottom. See Chart.

And this Summation index chart lifted from Breakpoint Trades shows a very strange effect starting Sept 2010....a complete wipe out of the cycle that has been so consistent.

Finally, OMG! An update from TOS on the same Weekend as an Elliot Wave Financial Forecast. What madness drives this market now?

The latest bear Crushing Ramp Job is actually steeper with less pullbacks than the March 2009, climb out of the bottom.

TNX / VIX This indicator has predicted market declines well in the near past.   Will the real triangle please stand up.  could be bouncing here, for an October run up.   My thoughts...3% more frog boil, into the new moon.

Run with the Squid, COT

This report from ZH/Libanman Futures is pretty compelling.   It says long the USD, short every other currency, short equities, short bonds.  However, please also check the screen caps at the bottom for some other COT summaries.   You can page through all of them through the link on the lower left which has been there forever.  

I can't at this time explain the difference in the data presented.   The COT report seems to show mixed bets by the "commercials" on the S&P 500, pretty short the AUD.   Take a look yourself.

Well, per this report that is the way the "sell side" the primary dealers are positioned.   And the leveraged money guys/small speculators are positioned the opposite way.    Seems like although the trend is your friend, that is only until it ends.   I would rather run with the squid.

A big drop would encourage QE2 in earnest.

Here is a chart I noticed before the COT report. 

And this other COT report on commodities shows that open interest is at very high levels, lots of people are placing lots of bets. Very interesting.