Thursday, May 13, 2010

Underwater Video of the Oil Spill at 5000 feet

This is some cool stuff, real video of the underwater leak, and some robotic repair work that actually worked. This is a massive leak, a huge pipe throwing oil out at high velocity.

And also visit Awesome pictures of the burning platform and attempts to put it out.

Find more videos like this on Drilling Ahead

Find more videos like this on Drilling Ahead

Put Call Ratio -- ?? Que Pasa?? Indicating this is a bottom, now

In 90% of the cases, a  peaking put/call ratio (equity put call /ratio that is), peaks while the market is trending down and just turning up.

Now we have had a 6% ramp in a week, and the put/call in hitting the upper trend line.   Very odd indeed.   Does this mean we rally hard from here?  I hope so because I am going on vacation and would like to come back to a market 5% higher so I can short it.

A blogger "Raised by Wolves" (he is probably howling at the no moon), suggested some out of the money puts on EEM or similar, as a "hedge" to missing the big drop.  I like that idea....Vix is down,

One theory is that as money is competitively devalued to kick the can down the road and to increase foreign trade balances, that a "hard asset" like the net present value of the future earnings potential of a company (the "fundamental value" of a company" goes up.  

Funny thing is...stock prices don't follow fundamentals much, and if deflation sets in for say 3 to 4 years, some of those buying the dip may be quite surprised.   And the value of a stock....nothing but a fleeting electron across your brokers computer processor....that is why they call them equities (to make it sound so solid). 

It is a new moon, those freak people out more than full moons.   Everyone is on their guard in the full moon, in the new moon, unknown danger lies ready to pounce.  

This indicator is available on the right tool bar, click it anytime.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Non-Scientific Inflation Study

After the mid 1970's oil crisis, where prices shot up, rationing was happening....the real inflation (defined in this article only as rising prices of things we need to live on), which ran somewhat around 10% to 14% per year, and did that year after year for 3 years, happened in the very late 1970's....from 1979 to 1981.

Will we also be looking at a 5 year lag between spiking oil and the onset of inflation?  When I say inflation in this way, I mean rising prices of things we need to live on.   Not increase in monetary supply (including credit) which is probably a "better" definition.

Bears in Hokkaido, Dancing Bull Wine

Last time I saw the Dancing Bull on sale was here:
I am heading off to Hokkaido to hand out with some real bears.

The battle of bull and bear continues. Will be gone about a week, no posting, no email.

Disclosure--Long ES futures based on "stupidity" and profitability, and ES punching through the 50% channel line, and EUR/USD bouncing off PRS 133 channel line (lower)

Etched in Sand, and Top Step

The FF Channel looks pretty good, but ideally the 25, 50, and 75 channel lines would have more touch points. So that channel line could be higher or lower, so let's just say it is etched "in sand".

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Betcha a bunch of bulls got suckered in

This looks big, picked up short ES around 1166 (lucky Satan/Speculator.

The Fear Factor says down

The new DWC/DIA says down.

Chart  of Charts says down

Fundamentals says down.

The scary part.....I am in line with EWI....watchout HBB still got game.

Fibs works (not Gub- Mint lies)

Monday, May 10, 2010

Methinks the Holy Grail

I guess if you search hard enough there is always some indicator to support a bearish slant on things.   

Take a close look at this one.   Dow is the most pimped of the indices, it is what "normal" people talk about at BBQ's.  It is the most herd like and most emotional.   Compared to the total market, by using this ratio chart, it speaks volumes. 

Comments appreciated.

Hogwash / Balderdash Euro Spin

The best lies have an element of the truth.

The Euro bailout (aka, massive money printing and rewarding of incompetence) was presented as a defense against speculative "wolves" that were trying to unfairly profit from the Euro's demise.

A total crock, those statements.   Speculators were targeted by numerous governments, all crocks.

The real deal is that those countries are bankrupt, and would not have the ability to refinance their debt.  They would default.  The PIIGS, they ate too much.

It's extortion, nothing less.  With media playing the pimp to sell the wares of the financial industry, and of course, bailout bankers and bondholders, at everyone longer term detriment.  

Chart of Chart and List of Short Squeeze

Review prior postings for interpretation of Chart of Charts

Below all have 30% of more short interest reported, they will be squeezed tomorrow, place bids for stink puts.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

"Resilient Market" teaching that buy and hold does work

An evil lesson is being taught to the market.    The crash then the ramp job and short squeeze from hell. 

Buy and Hold appears to work....until you hold and in December find S&P at 200. 

When the market goes down hard, people will "know" to hang on.   Then HBB has done it's job...distributed this crappy paper to the masses at a peak, then got the masses to hold the bag while it blows up.

Short Squeeze from Hell -- Coming Monday AM

Man that HBB is good.   They remove all the bids and tank the market, stripping stops like mad.

Then ramp it up the same day, and drop it Friday to embolden some bears.  Lots of people with limited money, playing the game with leverage....i.e. they bought expensive puts on they about to get blown out of the water with a massive short squeeze on Monday AM. 

That HBB is good.  

Strategy-- It's called stink puts.

Take your favorite basket case, like EEM.

Last week June 35 puts were around .20 or .25, now they are (were) 1.25 roughly.    I will put bid in to buy at .15

If I get filled, I don't have much to lose, and potentially everything to gain.

PRS 133 being backtested AGAIN!

The last time it was backtested was Thursday, and minutes later....shazam!

Hawaii Pictures

Check these photos and time lapse photography.

These are done by a friend of mine, who get once in a lifetime photos seems like every weekend.

And a first attempt at some time lapse video using the Nikon D3…

Aloha and Happy Mother’s Day

Blog Watchlist has been improved

On the right toolbar is a watch-list.   It used to be just a list of symbols, but now they click to a Stockcharts chart.   Check em out....easy to click through and bring up 8 charts, some of my favorites.

Example below.  You have a favorite ticker?  Let me know, I will put in on the Watchlist.

Boatload O' Charts

The Danger Zone

Lots of bears are predicting a run up from here. The SPX does look like 5 waves down, so a bounce up is not undeniable. The boneheads who calle themselves financial managers may be high 5'ing each other as they BBQ over the news of the latest bailout in Europe.

Euro gapped up huge...based on extreme money printing planned for the Euro zone, defaults will just be delayed. I shorted the gap up.

Also shorted ES (SPX futures)based on gap up to exactly the Daily Person Pivot. So far so good. Stop is set just beyond the PP.

"You can't be a contrarian just be being wrong."

Primary Wave 3 Down?

I am going to keep this short and just do a brain dump.

What I see going on leads me to a 90% belief that that next 5 years will be the most exciting 5 years on the last few centuries.

"Where is my cheese" is an expression from a job search book. When people lose a job they keep looking in the same place for the "cheese", they don't often open their eyes and look for new or other opportunities. They keep scrappin' around the same old place, looking for the cheese, and getting more upset and frustrated when the cheese doesn't come back. They get angry.

This is now Greece....the lead country in their denial that things need to change. You need productivity, efficiency, conservatism. But instead they want their cheese back. Instead of creating efficiency, they are going to shut the country down.

Entitlement thinking! It is all around us. Government worker wages in the US have gone up 30% to 50% while the rest of the economy wages have treaded water. I see this in my business. The postman has money to do projects, the military guy (bless their souls) has money to do projects, the cytologists (communication spies) has money to do projects. No one else does.

I went to the passport office last week. Intense security, bulletproof glass, shiny new offices. I had to call my Dad for some information and was talking on the phone. A twenty something employee tapped me on the shoulder and pointed to a cell phone use unless approved by the passport agency.

This was critical information I was gathering...however, as I was restricted from gathering my needed information, a TV blared cartoons. From the world of WTF? The issue is not about noise or disturbance, it is about power....and the government agency realize they are the ones with "income", power, and they go out of their way to get more.

Then, while I was talking on the phone in the hallway...noticed a bunch of passport workers leaving the office, meeting with friends, shooting the breeze. This was 10:30 AM, it wasn't lunchtime. They were shiny young people....not a care in the world, and they "had it made", they had a good paying job with a strong future, and a bunch of power. It was a P3 event in my mind.

Power bases (union, specialty workers, electricians, plumbers, other unions, telecom, etc.) will use their group power to try to grab more power and contracts at the detriment of everyone else. However, one thing is changing....private projects will not go forward...because people don't want to. In the boom times, people wanted to do and build all kinds of projects, there was unlimited optimism. People would pay whatever rate was needed to accomplish "their dreams". The recipients, although doing work, became "cheese laden", inefficient , and expecting the entitlement.

Now with the recent "crack hit" of maybe $13T the US had pumped into the economy, people have coasted through the "tough times", and NEVER LEARNED! We did not learn the lessons we ought to have learned, instead, we have been TAUGHT that what we were doing the last decade or two is OK, and we can keep up with all the stupid non-productive political and non-manufacturing related entitlement type thinking.

Yes this "crack hit" to the consumer zombie economy has made the issue worse. This ain't your Grandpappy's depression folks, this is a whole new level.

First Europe goes down, then the US and Asia.

Enough for today. I reached my time budget. But I do see it everywhere, a major change coming, being forced on us, and the mass global psychosis (per Daneric) which was a bull thought, will turn around the other way and shoot past the mean to the bearish side.

The piper needs to get paid, and even though he is wearing a clown suit and tooting a flute, this is all just a part of the deception...he is standing outside the door as the dancers wear down and the punchbowl runs dry.....

But for the near term, there could be several more months of "ramp"....giant oil leaks in the ocean, giant volcanoes, giant debts.....hell, can't we just print some more cheese to get confidence back?