Saturday, November 27, 2010

Long Term Charts for Some Perspective

It is hard for me to reconcile an asset valued in varying paper money over long periods of time, however the charts still do seem to speak.

In the day to day minutiae and misinformation that we live in, take a step back and look at the forest.

Looking forward to some comments, and please post up some of your own long term charts.

Anyone one have good data with commodity prices going way back?  

It is amazing how hard it is to get good historical data.   It hasn't hit my top 5 list yet in 3 years, but I still have a goal of finding the long term data on all the indices, the commodities prices, housing pricing, bond pricing, and posting them up as down-loadable files.   There is no reason that all this data couldn't just be in the public domain, with easy access.


Friday, November 26, 2010

Doctor Gold has Caught a Cold

On Thursday I opined that Gold was in a channel bottom and should be watched for a breakdown.

Check the Gold Channel.   I just started looking at this tonight.   It looks tasty, but won't place trades until watching for a while longer.
And posted this chart:  then further down, look what happened,

 An important break, support at the PRS177...and then a sharp rally and sharp slap down by the main PRS 100 (or zero if you prefer) channel line.    This is extremely bearish for Gold.     This is one of my systems, this must be bet.   Too bad I missed Thursday, but since it was first channel line I drew on Gold, I had to refrain from doing anything.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Most Powerful Option -- Doing Nothing

After a 60 minute scan of various charts, I have decided the most powerful decision


Now I may miss some moves, that's OK, the market will still be there, going up and down.

Check the Gold Channel.   I just started looking at this tonight.   It looks tasty, but won't place trades until watching for a while longer.

Copper short done for the moment

Had this in reply to a congratulatory comment on being up 25%

  • Still got 24% up, was up very high to 37% last night on a nice move down on copper, caught the top almost perfectly.  Then figured it would run down alot over weeks, so I would keep a very loose stop to not get whipsawed out of position.   Got greedy in other words (or alternately--let your winners run), and copper made a punishing move upward.   I was punished.   

  • I considered closing the position (while I was up big)  and then lying in wait to short further weakness--in retrospect, would have worked alot better.  Just now copper is going vertical on low volume, busting through a triangle and the PRS 177.    
  • Could be a trend change to the upside.   
  • In the recent path, I have done well when taking profits relentlessly, and far smaller pieces than I "want to".   That seems like all the market will give a person these days.   
  • However, taking a small profit is far better than taking a loss.

    This issue is the time involved and ability to monitor.
I am giving thanks that I protected my recent good trades.  Upset that I got greedy, knowing that taking small quick profits has been nearly the only thing working.

Alternate point of view....PTQMF, I am still long lots of that gold miner. 

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Copper futures still trading, and I am back short

Between Copper trade and USD future trade I am up 25% in one account this week. Not bad, but have done the same in the past and then saw all profit whittle away by tilting at the same old windmills.

Short copper again, based on macro and micro and my own personal bias, and that SPX was up big, while USD barely changed, DR. Copper is going to be prescribing himself some anti-biotics soon.

Valuable Metals index by Raised By Wolves

Ratio draws nice lines

MA Oscillator

From Darrell

BS Rally and Fear Factor 2

Darell has been watching FF2 and pointed out a breakout

From the chart --it appears to breakout upward (less fear).

See my unbiased take on that......

Today rally was complete BS, unless of course the FX markets (huge in comparison) were BS, or the correlation between USD and SPX ceased (not likely).

So the rally today was BS, it was not supported by FX.   It was meant to take bear money and get some retail to pile in bull.   However that said, we could certainly have several days of bull action.


 , turn off the monitors, shut down for a while.   Go hiking, clear your brain. 

Put the mouse down now.

Egg-citing Week

In a tribute to Thanksgiving we are featuring Eggs (the irreverent referral to ellipses), and maybe I am getting Thanksgiving and Easter mixed up...oh well, eggs are good stuff.  

Ellipses are nice because they combine time and price action, and as Sensei used to say --- timing veeeerry important.

Think Like A Thief POST

OK just some thoughts here....

I predicted today's ramp, especially with all the war stories out there.

Friday is a half day of trading.    Mom and Pop traders half zonked on tryptophan and reacting in short time frame to whatever "news" is fed to us.

MY STRATEGY (for me), be ready for some big moves.  

Position trades need no adjustment, but set a "stink offer" to catch a possibly wild move.    i.e. sell off some stuff at very good price.   You can always buy it back again, it is just a click and a small fee.  

Short term trades, I will probably close out most, be in cash for expected big antics on Friday.

Monday/Tuesday, I expect a "return to normal" from the holiday antics.

I am pretty convinced that the new trend is down US equities, up USD. 

Kudo's to some Blogging Greats

Some of the earliest bloggers I read, Bill Cara and Tim Knight

Bill has some wisdom of being on the inside for decades.  "We are traders of prices, the rest is probably meant to deceive" is my summary.    As as Bill says below "they are talking their book", that is the polite way of saying they are lying in an effort to steal from you.

Re: South Korea new

Thank you. Now the other story that is negatively impacting markets today, adding to the "wall of worry", is the latest talk about possible European sovereign debt failures. What we need to prove or disprove this "story" is to simply track the big banks in Europe and UK as they are the ones holding the majority of the sovereign debt.
The point is that, while important, these issues are more important to some people than others. In our case we are trading prices and so we need to be aware of their impact, but we should never be moved to buy/sell decisions on the basis of perspectives of non-traders and we should be cautious that when traders give their views in mass media they are almost certainly talking their book.
Sgt. Joe Friday's famous line "All we want are the facts, ma'am" comes to mind.

Go visit.   His blog doesn't indent columns or send emails when followup up posts are placed.   For those reasons, I don't spend much time there, at least in commenting.
Tim Knight does some great charts, I think when I first started understanding charts, I was attracted to the simplicity of his charts.   Here he draws some lines that purport to show price direction, but I am not sure what the lines mean.
And this Astro site keeps it simple and in perspective.    They change their opinion when the facts change, unlike Pretcher or Hotchberg.  
I often post their chart without further link to their site, their web address is embedded in every chart.

OK simple review to start your trading day---

  • Get your coffee, 
  • click Hawaii Trading, 

A funny one explaining financial shenanighans--from you tube, worth watching.   It probably won't go mainstream with the reference to pole dancing, however....

Monday, November 22, 2010

Fib Fan from Great Depression back in play for a Swat Down

See the bottom chart, the Fib Fan from Great Depression is amazingly back in play. And a 60 channel backtest rejection.

There is going to be lots of 78 retrace and bull boils until the buy the dip bulls get whooped.

Copper, Groupon, Artifacts

This Groupon stuff is pretty cool.   Note the humour in this article.

Not to make light of a tragedy, but human behavior definitely falls into range of herd like behavior.   This is the worst stampede I have ever heard of, it is current.

So far Nas broke through the backtest, wave up?

Artifact lines back in play

New screen for viewing visitors

Closed copper short, banked some serious coinage

closed copper short based on PRS177 and daily person pivot
will reenter on 3.786 or lower (below the 177)

Doctor Copper, this time it's a short on HG futures, and a PRS primer

So far, Dr. Copper been berry berry good to me. It has broke the 133 and now lets see if 177 goes.

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Sunday, November 21, 2010

Irish May Start to "Go Off!"

It is a Beautiful Full Moon, and Euro increases on bailout news

From the land of WTF?
Ireland, after just days before, steadfastly denying it needs financial help, is forced to accept help.

Down below, please review the S&P 500, especially the Fib Fan from the Great Depression and the Big 61 Fibo, both now in play, both extremely bearish 

And the Euro overall up on that news.   Very odd.  Perhaps what they nicely refer to as an exhaustion top/spike.   Which basically means a last minute manipulation before the real direction is set.

NZD as a currency got hammered in Sunday action, against all others that I viewed.

I was snaked out of my copper short, and glad I had stop in place.   Somehow I got a decent fill on a gap up.   Again, with Eurozone blowing up I was surprised that USD down and copper up.

Went back in short copper at a higher price---based on the PRS kickdown shown in this blog last week.

Scanning the futures and FX, I really don't see anything "obvious".

Expiry was last Friday, and often the Monday after sees some serious moves as the market gets back to normal.

STRATEGY: set some orders to activate either long or short based upon a move.   For ES (S&P 500 futures) I will accept an 8 point move beyond the entry point as profit stop.   And a 1.25 point stop as a loss.  

I get alot of periodicals. This one called Assembly is hilarious. Upset Zombie Workers, on the production line.

And here it is, the Fib Fan from Great Depression