Saturday, July 3, 2010

Composite Bullish Percent Charts

These are some of my favorite charts, because they give you an overall view of the market, by sector.

I have put these as a permanent link on the upper left of Hawaii Trading.$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA,$BPHEAL,$BPINFO,$BPINDY,$BPMATE,$BPTELE|B[BREADTH]
There are 2 sets:

One is the bullish percent indices (BPI), and they are "mechanically" calculated based on the Point and Figure Charts.   They kind of do the same thing the Infamous Hawaii Trading Chart of Charts does...they analyze the charts themselves.

Moral of that story?   You can game some of the charts all of the time, you can game most of the charts some of the time, but HBB can't game all of the charts all of the time.   

The beauty of the BPI is that this can eb gathered so easy, just click on the link, it will update everyday for you.  DO not confuse BPI with sentiment polls or the like, BPI IS NOT an interview to see who is bullish, it is a simple analysis of the P&F charts.

Two is the Breadth Charts, maybe even more simple, these reflect the number of stocks going higher in price compared to the number of stocks going lower in price.  Many people refer to this as one of the "market internals" that seem so mysterious to causal "hobby stock players".

Don't be a hobby stock player, you will be eaten alive in these treacherous waters.   But if you can see which way the tide is flowing, and you have strength in your convictions enough to ride through the inevtiable shenanigans, market ramps, and the other hijinks that the financial ogliarchs, who move markets in concerted and one day to be found illegal manners, then you can simply make money be floating up or floating down.

Methinks the tide is going out, sinking all boats.

What the heck, we can't keep Fibbing forever

This excerpt is from Kaimu, a fellow Hawaiian, posting on Bill Cara's blog which is the first blog I ever read.   Cara is top notch, but stressed by recent market behavior and manipulation.   Who isn't?   I got a solid 7 hours sleep, great sleep, and by the end of Friday, I was, well fried by everything including market shenanigans.

On June 30th, Wednesday, the US PUBLIC DEBT as subject to STATUTORY LIMITS flew past $13TRIL in a mighty MOONSHOT! Now this is different than the DEBT CLOCK, which has already reported numbers past $13TRIL, because the Statutory Limits apply at the US TREASURY, not the CLOCK. I have been eying this flirtation with $13TRIL USD for a month or so and there has been this "dance" right up to $13TRIL and then back down. A month or more of this ... Well finally the $13TRIL mark was broken with a one day $166BIL MOONSHOT to $13.15TRIL. That is the most I have ever seen the US PUBLIC DEBT move up in one days time. Prior BIG DAYS was around $80BIL USD. This day, on June 30th, was DOUBLE the past BIG DAYS! More than DOUBLE!!
The "redemptions" just completely broke down in the face of yet another big weekly $111.2BIL USD debt issuance on June 30th, whereby redemptions only covered $33.2BIL. Every week there is this $110BIL+ debt issue, usually every Wednesday or Thursday. This is the same debt issuance that Niall Fergusen has spoken about recently that will collapse the US TREASURY within two years.
Monetary history is replete with debt destroying confidence in currencies. If anyone should know about that phenom its Niall.
Could that have anything to do with the USD crash of late? I mean seriously, with days like June 30th and every seven weeks the US TREASURY prints up way more than a new TARP($700BIL) is the USD and, more to the point, the "debt derivative" really a "safe haven"? Its an IOU for Christs sakes! Its never been anything more than that and it will never be anything more than that, but the safe bet is that it will be much less than an IOU in the future because it will be an IOU ZERO!
So lets now go over and take a "look-see" at how much REVENUES came into the US TREASURY in order to pay for all those outlays, which were recorded at $70.4BIL, along with the $111.2BIL in new debt, Treasury Notes to be exact. Hummmm ... okay gross tax revenues minus refunds equals a "net" tax revenue of $8BIL USD on June 30th. Are tax revenues useless or what? My God ... $8BIL is a pimple on an elephants ass at the US TREASURY! Income tax is a complete waste of time! Anyone who says any different needs to step up to the plate and explain why income tax matters in the face of this much daily debt and out of control spending. Why? Where is the benefit? I'd love to be convinced there is a benefit ... Yep, that's me asking ...
The C WORD is approaching, warp speed, Captain!

Friday, July 2, 2010

Lost Post Short for Weekend

Sheesh, had a beautiful post prepared, went to tune up my chart, and lost the post.

Sorry, the chart is all you get, but its a good one.  Short taken at 1016.25 on the ES, perfect timing so far.

It is taken on the big 38 Fib....check the charts carefully, I know they are busy, but they really have something to say.  It immediately tanked to 1011 after bouncing down from the Fib.

I can't imagine good news over the weekend to drive a rally.  And holidays do not make people optimistic in terms of driving the market up either before or after the holiday. 

Keep in mind the fundamentals have never been so horrific for any Gen X or Gen Y

ES Short through the weekend?

On Wednesday I postulated that the Euro coudl run to 1.26 and it did, very fast.

Leaving poor little SPX behind in the dust. 

One way they can make the unemployment numbers better is to stop paying unemployment....then those workers can be lumped into the U6 category of discouraged workers.   Hey, what a way to restore confidence!

So is the correlation broken between Euro and SPX?  Are "they" using some other vehicle to hedge instead, allowing gaming of the Euro to occur? 

Time will tell, but I established a short position under the Big 38 Fib on SPX (aka /ES for the leveraged futures slinging cousins).

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Euro and ES The near Term Road Forward

Please read the notes on the charts.

In order for a good size bounce from ES 1013 which was touched in after hours, to say 1080 (an Atilla estimate), The Euro would be forced to rally.    Unless they just happen to decouple at this point, which has a low probability.

The Euro does not look ready to rally IMHO, in fact it looks like it need to finish a 5 down, and that could easily take the S&P to the 800's range by say Aug/Sep.

Others have posted analogies to 1987, and the fractals are AMAZINGLY similar to right now, predicting a crash within days.

"They" have used 3 day weekends for big market move, ALOT in the last 2 years.  There is no honor among those particular thieves.   It is all about taking all the money using whatever they can muster, and regardless of consequences.  

So do not think that out of respect for America, that Humongous Bank and Broker HBB will act nicely so we can all pay our due respects to our country and our constitution.

However, this moon cycle does look like a bottom would be more appropriate than a continued decline.  This market is tricky.

ES Important Perspective

In 1000 trading days, I have never seen the ES (S&P 500 Futures) take a big move during the Asian session.   It is doing so today, and finding support and resistance on some important lines.   

Please comment.

Communication and Math Important to Trading

Fear Factor - Fear is trendy

Pair O' Shorts

Some old favorites.   Made a boatload of money on CLF when it was called Cleveland Cliffs, and it was going over the cliff.

Kayak O' Charts

Boatload O' Charts

This is almost a sure fire way to cause a market rally, and that is me posting a boatload of bearish charts.

This is some fresh blood charts, only a few looked at before.   I will check volume (I like at least 400,000 a day on average--lower than that and the gaming effect becomes much larger IMHO).

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

A few charts after vacation

Elliot Wave alert

One of the big Elliot Wave writers states--huge declines to start soon, but watch for relief rally, but waterfall style declines could be iminent.   

That means, with 80% certainty that HBB will ramp the F out of the market. Seriously.   My stops will not get hit, in other words, I am looking at taking up to a 15% loss on leveraged positions.    If I set my stops at 3% or 5% they could get hit, followed by the so called waterfall event.

Everything I see says down....but HBB ain't broke, in fact they have stolen trillions and can deploy that to get more.

Back from Vacation

Nice to come home and see the vacation paid for several times over!!!   hua!!

I'll make you folks a deal....everytime I go on vacation, the market tanks, like when I was in Hokkaido last month.

So y'all pay for the vacations, and I will take lots of them?   Good deal?  the record is a perfect 100%, which is way better than 100% of all fund managers.

Here is my thoughts on alternation.   Last July the bearish got decimated on the head and shoulders.     Right now CNBC (rumored since I refuse to ever ever watch them) is talking about the bearish H&S, and that ain't shampoo.   So what happens now?    All the bears are covering their shorts, expecting another ramp job.  

Perfect time for an 8% down day, following last weekends eclipse and declining global emotions on the world cup.

Watch the Euro, but for now the contrarian play is that weak handed hobby shorts may have to take a little ramp tomorrow--but will get stopped out at a loss, but I anticipate a large large down, since most everyone will miss it.  

When the down happens it will be fast (or as is the norm of last years ramp -80% happened on futures during market closed hours) or during after hours futures trading.

Ill try to post up some charts later.

I WATCH THE EURO, if the S&P is looking skittish (like a bull run), but the Euro is bearish, I will stay bearish.