Friday, August 20, 2010

Bears going crazy

Bears are going kind of crazy, killing lots of people this year.   I mean real bears.

Musings for the weekend

I know you weren't :) I know the game changes quite a bit when there is skin in the game. My goal is to start out making 25% of what I do in paper and to build on that.
LikeDislikeReplyPosted: 8:30AM Aug 21, 2010
Rating: 0
If your a cold blooded asshole trader like me, does not matter, paper or "live." Sort of where you want to be with this. Trade outcome does not matter mentality.
LikeDislikeReplyPosted: 8:32AM Aug 21, 2010
Rating: 0
so long as the money gained and lost doesn't matter, i suppose. that's the big mental hurtle for scrubs like me.
LikeDislikeReplyPosted: 8:35AM Aug 21, 2010
Rating: 0
Oh no, it DOES matter. It just does not matter in the trade you are now in. Why? Because you have tested the setup for the trade and have traded it many times. You KNOW what the long term return is for that setup over many, many trades. So then THIS trde outcome does not matter. IF it matters means 1) You do not trust your trade setup and/or 2) your trade size is too large.
LikeDislikeReplyPosted: 8:38AM Aug 21, 2010
Rating: +1
i don't know if this is bad strategy or what, but i tend to just trade via intuition. i have a subset of consistent tools and rules, but all in all i might take a trade one day that i wouldn't take the next.  
so in that way, it really is just a matter of overall confidence i know what i'm doing. which lately has been good, but there have definitely been some dark days.  
paraphrasing some article i read a while back, trading is just like playing a video game. you only get better by doing it, by getting a feel for it. you can read all the guides and practice etc, but either you figure it out or blow your account. war of attrition style.
LikeDislikeReplyPosted: 8:45AM Aug 21, 2010
Rating: 0
I am a rules bound trader. I have gamed every trade before I take it. I know exactly what I will do based on price action once in a triggered trade. My trades are also triggered according to plan. So, means that it does NOT matter at all what happens next. I am merely an execution machine. My trades all have positive expectency or I do not take the trde..there is NO trade! We do not get any smarter once in a trade.. In fact, evidence shows we get dumber once in a trade. Do not let this happen to YOU!

Holding moderately short into weekend

ES chart, is backtesting horizontal resistance, which is a backtest of the big H&S.

Potentially very bearish, yet Quants/Robots are blowing up many patterns intentionally to trap people in bad positions.

So, I am not adding to bearish positions at this time.

And the Cable and Euro look like they could rally...based on a "Double Swan Feet with bullish neck" pattern, and some obvious intervention.

But it is/was expiry, which often results in fairly big moves on the next Monday Tuesday.

Euro Manipulation

Strangest "wave" of non wave that I have ever seen on any currency.

Intervention of some sort.    Don't they know that the business cycle and the social mood cycles cannot be stopped?

Human vanity makes all thoughts possible.

The role of expiry week has been accomplished...the bears were slaughtered, then the bulls were slaughtered. HBB walks away with the profits (and me too)while people toil and try to keep their life going as they face unemployment and foreclosures. uhhh ha--this game can't end well.  


Thursday, August 19, 2010

People and Animals going off

Social waves, are happening.

People and animals are "going off".

I would say this is Bullish!   except it isn't

Editorial /Rant 401K's

Lots of money parked in the 401k's.

It was a tax haven of sorts.

Now record numbers of 35 to 55 Year olds are taking hardship withdrawals.  

Are they taxed (don't know).   If not it might be a great time to find the excuse to take these withdrawals.

This is big stuff, really big.   Soon 401K holders/contributer may be forced to buy T-bills (after Big Ben is done talking them down).

Euro, strong support below, new PRS 133 swatting it down....

Confirmed Hindenburg Omen

Great, now all we need is a Elliot Wave Monthly forecast touting P3, and for sure HBB will throw a few billion of State pension fund money at futures to ramp them to 1120 or so, blowing out all new bears.

Currencies update

new image at bottom showing Eur double support very clear...

Ramping around, throwing leveraged traders off the trade

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Fast Break to new lows at expiry. Then bounce

I am trying hard to avoid the temptation to "get cute" with this market and play every bounce up and down.

The Euro is confirmed down, and cable may soon follow.

That means S&P500 should follow...even more than it has.  

TNX 10 year bonds popped the PES 133 line, the strongest indicator out there.   And now looks ready for rally.   Some late comers to the game are now touting USD rally.   Excuse me, but Duh?  Of course it will.  As FET (financial entertainment television) trots out China selling dollars...of course USD will rally.

Wed- Latest spike not confirmed by currency, it's just a trading game

The title comment during the trading day was dead on.

Currencies look very vunerable to a USD rally, no matter how hard BB tried to talk down the dollar.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Total Market / Dow Jones DIA a great indicator

I wouldn't stay short/add to shorts like I just did, unless this indicator supported the move.  It does.

Search the blog for previous versions

Is Head and Shoulder Illegal or something?

Is everyone so f'n scared that they can't even say Head and Shoulders anymore?


Cable tanked and SPX rocketed up.

Cable looks like it is on the verge of breaking important horizontal support, and is also appropriately obeying the RPS 133 channel lines, getting kicked down.

The correlation between Cable and SPX may end, but until it does, we ought to view divergences with suspicion.  

I covered my future short last night before the mega-ramp, and went back in short, at a nicely higher level, based on this Cable view.    Still, support is support until it is really broken, so time will tell.

Expiry week, so big moves can come quick.

Inflation then Deflation then Hyperinflation

Now that everyone is talking deflation, that is probably the most unlikely thing to happen.

I am seeing lots of inflation -- on things I need.   But this is Hawaii, which is kind of on a different cycle than the mainland.

On "optional" purchases, I am seeing deflation.

Over the next several years, I expect lots of deflation....and then the long term effect of printing money...inflation.

Pomo FMP's

This from Zero Hedge -- More bearishly than thou

The Tradition Of Mindless Stock Ramping On Fed POMO Days Is Back

Tyler Durden's picture

One of the most beloved phenomena of Fed intervention is the "miraculous" ramp in stocks on days in which the Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) occurred: while this was a requisite in 2009 when the Fed monetized $700 billion in Treasurys, it had gradually disappeared from the public consciousness after the termination of the Treasury portion of QE1 in October 2009. Well, now that POMO is back courtesy of QE Lite, and with the help of various sellside analysts, Primary Dealers knew precisely which Treasury CUSIPs to purchase in advance of the auction for a quick leveraged pick up of a few hundred bps. And now that the money is funded back to the PDs, as of the end of the POMO operation at 11am Eastern, it needs to find a new home. And with the PDs providing the initial impetus for a risk asset (read stock) ramp, and momo quants picking up the sloppy seconds as they jump over each other to send the momentum driven ramp ever higher, the result is presented below.
What this means is that going forward, every single day that the Fed is monetizing bonds via 10:15-11:00am POMOs, it will be very foolhardy to short into the Fed's stock surging offensive. As a reminder, here are the immediately upcoming POMO days through the end of August: August 19, August 24, August 26, and September 1. Shorting on those days has once again become implicitly illegal.

Expiry antics

This is expiry after all.

That stop clearing run was a push to the 50% Fib, but usually, in this "crack head market", the 61 or 78% is hit.    Time will tell.

The put call ratio was high, I wonder what today did to cause people to "cover".

This super spike ups are normally a sign of bulilshness, but the last half year, they have been simple concerted market manipulation by HBB.   And it seems this one was also.

The Cable (GBP/USD) was moving quite opposite of the SPX, which is amazing, considering that it was one of the best correlated FX pairs to the SPX.  

The wheels are about to come off the cart....IMHO.

Monday, August 16, 2010

ES Games

There are heavy games afoot.  We  can expect a blow off top, exhaustion gap,  Bronto death swing, what have you.  Or maybe that double push up was enought to shake out the hobby bears.

Bonds are going Ape, check TLT
Currencies are moving in sometime non-correlated fashion.

And the McC showed a small move on Friday the 13th!  That means a big move coming although we don't know the direction.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Weekend Observations ES and Cable

Updated above, the tank down continues, ES leading the main FX correlators.

Iran could trigger some fireworks. And Russia is doing their nuclear there is really a match made in hell.

And now, FETV is complicit in pimping out the idea that the bottom kill of the Gulf Well could actually result in release of 1000 barrels of oil, and should on that grounds be perhaps not carried out.   Amazing the lies and misrepresentations the sheeple let themselves be fed.   At this point, who gives a rats ass about 1000 barrels when so much more is already out there?

It is not that I disagree that they ought to pull the oil out of that reserve, they should, they need the money to do the cleanup and we need the oil.   However, the way it is being played out in the media is just insulting.   Kill the well, for sure, and then use the second relief well to pull the oil out.    Duh!!!!!!!!!!!!

These folks do such an awesome job of plotting the moon cycles combined with TA, that I dont even try to replicate their work.   Here it is.    I see a slog or sled ride down for yet another V bottom "to be bought".

And the VIX/VXV chart, a great predictor of moves down.   I use the daily chart with 2 BB to predict the little and big moves down.   Refer to prior posts.