Friday, July 31, 2009

ES 210,000 Futures "Traded" With Little Price Impact

I find this odd. Maybe someone has the motivation to research typical end of day and end of week, and end of month volume patterns in ES futures, and how it affect price swings.

That which does not kill us makes us stronger, yeah right

Famous philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche stated "That which does not kill us makes us stronger"

But few people realize that he also said "Insanity in individuals is something rare -but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

Hmmm--reminds me of the markets, plus a few Hal 2000's--What I don't want to see is that all the blatant greed, billions in bonuses, and other illegal practices that have pervaded the financial markets will somehow just all be blamed on a computer algoorythmn and thus let the guilty off the hook. Unfortunately, what I want seems to have very little effect on the broad world. :-)

And I would beg to differ with the first quote. After watching and living through this horrendous tape which resembles a Bronto head swingly wildly in it's last egotistical thrashes before it realizes it is going to die for sure, I would have to say that which doesn't kill us, sometimes just beats the shit out of us.

And to Fujisan's Point about FX being less emotionally involving, he writes "Convictions are more dangerous foes of truth than lies."

And for perma-bears, you may wish to consider "And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."

But Nietzche is complex--The quote below seems to contradict his most famous saying at the top-- "Character is determined more by the lack of certain experiences than by those one has had."

And since we are on the subject, not that I am much of a Marx fan, but here---

Karl "I am not a Marxist" Marx stated "For the bureaucrat, the world is a mere object to be manipulated by him.", and good lord, Marx was wrong about a bunch of things IMHO, and let's hope he was wrong about his saying "Democracy is the road to socialism."

We are at a crossroads, in the end we shall be judged not by what we think, but by what we do.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

ES Channel Line Swat Down That Makes Sense

The Channel from April 2009 rise has swatted down the advance 3 times. At least for now this means something. Even with a push above 1000 in a day or two, the /ES futures (S&P 500) can intersect this trendline at a higher level, and perhaps be swatted down again.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Stopped and Back -- This isn't for payback, its for pay

96% CAD Bulls, 10% USD Bulls Do you know what this means?

There are other good reasons to play this one, besides the fact that the Hal 2000's aren't gaming the hell out of it. It has fundamental and technical merits for the trade.

Also review these, sory the link feature refuses to work, you will need to cut and paste.

96% CAD Bulls, 10% USD Bulls Do you know what this means?

ES Same old Channel, again and again

I was always, well, frankly, annoyed at how some market analysts would jump from index to index to "prove" their point of the day. So here is my response...the same old ES channel I have been displaying for over a month.

ES Fib perspective

China has a big part of the whole world human interaction with the markets. They tanked. But US doesn't follow Asia, never has. Some day iy may, but it is unlikely that this time it's different.

This small downturn, almost means nothing on the ES

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Mike Shedlock, aka MISH, is a great and steady writer. However, he make me look bullish for the most part. He does good research that I havent found many holes in, however, one time I asked him....what happened to the money that was created and lost, and his response was...the money never existed. I disagree. The counterparties are holding the bag. Lots of good hardworking, and for the most part honest people, are going going to take massive losses. Lots of people who intended at retiring at 62 or 70, or hell, 50, are going to be doing whatever they can to get by.

BUT HERE IS MY POINT. Sorry Mish, but when you have to get down and dirty, arguing with a critic of yours, on your's a sign of a DarkWave (TM).

China Drops Hard, ES Jumpy

Everywhere the Bears step, they have been trapped. Bears hardly even want to get out of their Bear den. 5 slow weak deer could pass by, and they would hunker down....responsibly missing this "trap".

Double top?

I haven't heard a single person mention "Double top" on this market, since everyone knows this market is just going up. Actually I think there is a good chance it will go up a little, just purely based on Fibonacci and EW.

And bulllish extent index doesn't seem quite extreme enough as one would expect on the "recovery" of the greatest stock crash after the greatest stock mania of all time. When I start hearing about how resiliant this economy is, and how Greenspan had it right all along, well...then there will be change I can believe in.

And market participants will probably cheer if the Gov announces further liquidity to support the markets and prevent "too strong" a dollar which would also hurt our exports and thus put our recevery at risk. They will say...we are in this thing too deep, if we back off the incentives now, we might slip back into recession.

With all the daily hoopla going on, it is easy to forget that all this money printing going on is part of a vast transfer of wealth from the hard working and responsible to irresponsible, greedy, and powerful. Don't let that get in the way of good trade decisions, but keep it in mind.

There are other things going on as well, such as wars that are not going well, lack of investmenet in alternative energy in the past, corruption at multiple levels, breakage of contract law. I was in awe that instead of living through a "rationing period" such as 1943 in which pennies were no longer coined in copper, but in zinc, we were instead driving humvees, buying big screen TV's, living like there was no tomorrow.

So it's not just about the money printing, and squandering the application of that printed money, thats just part of it. Most things can be fixed with money...until it become worthless. I wonder what bankers think when they know that their 30 year fixed mortgages will be paid back with paper that is worth only 30% of what the mortgage was based on....I guess that doesn't affect this years bonus.

UUP retest the wedge? USD goes up?

Monday, July 27, 2009

Long Ideas - You Know What That Means!

These are all long ideas. There are some index triangles forming that could mean another blast off on the indices, and of course, most boatloads o' charts gets carried upward on the emotional tide.

That said, at 7 days of ups, we were at extremes HI-STO....remember we arent going to use that phrase "overbought", ever, ever again. Now I have stopped counting. The Hal 2000's have plenty of money in their war chests since blowing up the H&S, this charade can be continued.

UUP is covered in a recent post, its an ETF for the USD.

The others have strong candles--bullish candles, but out of 2000 stocks, I could only find 4 bullish candles. Good luck and be careful out there.

2 days of small moves on the NY McClennan I think it was 6.3 and 3.3, whatever, they were small, indicates a big move coming. Full disclosure, I have orders in for longs on a break up, and tight stops below.

I am surprised no one like my previous "Alien Fish Head" pattern...sheesh...
Tight lines and tight stops, this is way overbought territory (ouch, I didnt say that). Awoooooooo! Full moon can be a great time for fishin'

Alien Fishhead Pattern

In keeping with the irreverant nature of this blog, I humbly present the
"Alien Fishhead Pattern", I dare say, it looks like this bullish fish has been hooked.

ES and why do the Trannies have a P/E of 71

Note the light green lines, this is the channel formed after the initial March Lows when they started a "realistic" upward channel.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Scatter Chart of SPX daily price variation

This first chart is just the last 9 months.

The second chart dates to 1972. There are a few "interesting" periods but none as interesting / volatile as what we have just seen, and what we may see in the future.


Here is a long term chart that is playing out in the little zone that we live

Currency Analysis USD versus all the rest

This currency analysis took maybe 45 minutes. I took a look a the USD versus other currencies in 4 time frames and came up with my strongest current direction. Admittedly, a number of these are "Double bottom" calls. However, as everyone and their brother know, the SPX has moved inverse to the US dollar index of late. Once everyone knows of a correlation, be on the guard for an end to that correlation, but for now it does appear to be in play. My take? Short term relief for the dollar, dollar gets stronger, SPC goes down for 3 days...enough to get some burnt bears excited enough to place more capital at risk...

Also, keep in mind, I am pretty good at charts and chart reading, I have not got deeply in currency charts until this last month. I think they are similar to equities, but there are differences.

Interesting--appending this blog-- the following BB comments just came out.

Dow futures short? DON'T FIGHT THE TAPE

OK I know Y'all have been waiting for me to post my long suggestions (in order to crash the market), and I am having trouble finding some. The amount of bullish setups on charts tanked big time on Friday. I'll keep trying though, I think 4 longs posted here will be enough to tank the market. Meanwhile, I was front running myself by taking some Dow futures shorts.

And everytime I hear another "reformed" bear say don't fight the tape, I will buy an additional, very short term trade, August put.