Friday, May 28, 2010

Top Kill?

Hmmmm... this video seems to repeat endlessly.   Apprently the BP offcials thought it would be good enough so people believed their efforts worked to stop this killer gush of oil into the Gulf.

It didn't and my bullishness is come to an end.   People will be massively hurt and disappointed.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Continued bullish

HEADS UP, Monday is a Holiday in US Markets.  Last few years, three days weekends have seen lots of shenanigans.

Another thought on the Elliot Wave 5 waves.  By observation, not  recital of the "bible".   Lets say wave 1 starts up, then a number of participants jump on long after they see the move started, maybe they get filled at about half of the run up.   Then wave 2 comes, retracing 61% of wave 1.....if those wave one buyers set their stop tight, they get stopped out.   Then, after getting burned, they are afraid to jump on long again, and thus miss the wave 3.

Waves that retrace and that overlap make it very hard to trade small moves...i.e. to "get in" with a safe stop.   And with the high volatility of late...if you set your stop too loose, you have a high likelihood of waking up to a stupendous loss.   

This is the market we currently have....being gunned up and down, affected greatly by Forex, in particular the Euro.   But being gunned for the sake of stopping bears and bulls alike. 

Bullish factors -- Cup and Handle and Inverse Head and Shoulders.  The Bollinger bands are getting tight...that means energy is building for a big move.....direction is not known from the Bollinger, as with the McC Oscillator.
Euro has been pounded, its about ready for a rally and sure looks to be starting one.

BP might just get this well capped with mud, then with concrete.-- some news does move the market.   Some people state that news is fabricated to explain market moves, and in a great majority of cases that is true. 

But their are large structural events that get reported on also, and these do affect the pyschology of the participants, their emotions, and the fundamentals of our economy.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Bullish? Heck Yes.

Betting long?  Heck no, maybe for a day trade, but we can easily open limit down one of these days.  

Small break out stocks may be good for long entry, but with a very small time horizon, like under 4 days, and a tight stop.

I bet NQ futures todays, had a nice little $600 profit going and then BAM....turned into $300 loss.   Glad I had moved some of my stops into the profit zone, or it would have been a $600 loss.   Support and resistance day trades, but not much time for those.  I have a paid service that calculates that stuff, makes a moving chart, and sets off a tone near a trade point.   Sometimes amazing how well and how fast the price action changes around the support and resistance.   Expensive service, worth it for occasional use, would be very worth it if you were a daytrader.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

$NYMO - Daily Candlesticks

$NYMO - Daily Candlesticks: "



Video link to capture deepwater cam

Thought I would screen capture a video for posperity,
If you can figure out what is going on is this video please let me know.

Heading up for a while?

I have seen a number of falling wedges on individual stocks.   Those are usually quite bullish, I saw those on JCI and Honeywell in Feb 2009....should have seen the writing on the walls!

My guess is that we head up to around 1120, 1125 on the SPX.   There is long term Fibs and near term Fibs right there.