Friday, August 12, 2011

Fatboy or German Shepherd

Here is a link to mostly bullish blog.   On the chart is some of his comments annotated and pointing to chart of SPY and dates.

Also are some Hawaii Trading comments.   Really, I need to re-read my own comments more, LOL

Commentators and Bear Flag with Spinning Top on the SPY

It is amazingly curious how many Market Commentators spend time giving you a lesson on what just happened.   Or making prognostications, and then if they were wrong, never admitting it or never (as they should) revisiting it to sleuth out what threw them off, or what changed. 

The owners of Stockcharts had a late night Friday synopsis of some cool indicators.   And not trying to poke them in the eye, but they call each email alert a "market message".   Sometimes I get the idea that the message is "what happened".  back to this later.

Sure, cash is king.  Only price pays.   And everyone has their eye on price.   That is what the prime deceptive plays are using, price.  Why not, that is what everyone has their eye's on.    How can, for decades after decades, a high put call ratio be consistently ramped against?   Well if you are short, and you see the put call go high, you better do a gut check before the ramping starts. 

Hence the use of indicators --- it is harder to make indicators lie.  Price can be directly manipulated, at least by the market makers.   They use their assets under management to buy buy buy, or they simply drop the bid to get the market to fall (after they have sold a bunch of calls--maybe to your State Retirement System as a "professional hedge").  

Hawaii Trading has some custom indicators:
  1. The Fear Factor (FF)
  2. Volatility on Steroids (VOS)
  3. Precious Metals Exuberance Index (PME)
  4. Chart of Charts (CC)
  5. Asset Class Total (ACT)
  6. Put Call Oscillator (PCO)
As I continue to build a true trading system (based on a number of methods, and number of time-frames), the integration of these indicators is central.  Using classic tools such as TICK (and tick fades) is also a "no brainer".   And reading the work of true experts, not just having the book on the shelf (good start)

For now, on the above HTCI's, simply search the blog for the short title.   Honestly no time to detail each one specifically.

Fukushima Video documentary

This is a long one.  

1.5 hours.    Real scientists doing real radiation samples.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

777 for once, instead of 666

Also, it's my birthday, 8-11, with a 777 tick, how can I possibly go wrong!

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Cartoon from 1934 Chicago Tribune --Great Depression Recovery

Somewhere right around this time the gov confiscated all the Gold in the US.    They wanted  to force the use of fiat currency.

This one isn't about gold per se, although the issues seem familiar.

Saved by the Tick

Trying something, new tick charts fades.   I was trying to establish (and then maintain) a long position here.   I traded far more than ever, and the market moved against my general idea over 40 points.   However, came out with a profit.   Very odd.   I like the tick chart.

This egg sent in by another Steve, wish I had seen it before I tilted at longs the last few hours.

Sweet Spot for "Egg launch", but sometimes they almost fall off the edge of the earth, and then Launch!   Like this one.

Timely Breakout upward ES

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Fib Fan from 1932 and Head and Shoulders, Xtrends, Evil Speculator

Check out this chart.    The problem is it doesn't tell you what happens next.

Never saw this before, Evil is Live spelt backwards (on a Led Zepple

From a blogger on the BreakPoint Trades site (who the heck uses a 666 moving average!)

I have not read all of the post today but ...

I have not read all of the post today but the low was a perfect hit on the 38.2% fib from the March 2009 lows but even more interesting to add to yesterday's eerie 6.66% decline the low was also a perfect hit on the 666 day moving average.  For those with TradeStation - check it out.  What are the odds.

Of course the 13/34 EMA "Death Cross" did cross, but their is plenty of room for whipping around on that, even a "touch and go" landing pattern.

I did a minor study on the Maginot 1940 crash.    Here it is.

The Maginot Line and Current Shenanighans

What signifcance, the Maginot line?   It was a massive fortification constructed by France to avoid an attack by the Germans.  

Curious now that somehow the rest of the also ran Euoro countries now expect France and Germany to bail them out, but that is a somewhat different story. 

The Maginot line was 500 total buildings, of which every 9 miles was a major Fort (50 of them), with 1000 men.  All this was built and maintained at great cost, 3 billion Francs got the job started and it took 10 years.

And all this based on the assumption that the Ardennes Zone was impassible and thus provided 99% protection.   The Ardennes zone consisted of mountains with ridges, rivers, and swamps. 

The Germans pushed 1,000,000 troops and 1500 tanks through this zone that was thought to be impassable.   The surprise effect allowed them to easily take France, Belgium, Luxembourg.   It was a big thing, they flanked the Maginot line.  

So, you ask, me hey Steveo, how the heck does the maginot line link up with current events?   Is there some euro twist here?

HERE IT IS:  The day the Maginot line was breached, defeated by a massive force through impenetrable swamps and mountains, that day the stock markets had a terrible, terrible day in terms of the few stocks advancing, while the vast majority tumbled.  An intense sign of fear, capitulation.  

YESTERDAY, the fear was worse the the penetration of the Maginot line, as measured by the stock market advancers and decliners.

Got it?   Yesterday, the Fear was Worse than basically the fall of Europe to the Nazi', worse than a good chance of being captured and put in a death camp, Really!

Lets define that fear of yesterday.  

  • Sure the media promotion of the S&P debt downgrade.
  • The just prior Debt Debacle, which was quite a bad joke actually.
  • The stock market declines, although most people know, the market has been "supported" by the Fed.
  • The suspense of not knowing whether QE3, easy money was coming to "save the country"
I went long, at least for a while.

I did this other collage of a 1942 v-shaped ramp job, during terrible news.
Check it out, Bataan Death March and Doolittle Raid.

15 day calender cycle, just now it is offset from the moon cycle

FOMC minutes

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity. Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions. More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

Bunch o charts from Monday night

bunch of indicators, lots of put call, even a ratio of put call ratios.

Basically shows "near historic" extremes.   Waiting on FOMC, resolution but seeing 1180 as the bottom of the "old but still steep channel" that we fell out of a few days ago as near term target.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Sloppy Joe Six Pack / Mercury Retrograde

If you follow the above link to New York Times, and then go down right and read the 733 comments....well, just skim 20 of them, you will realize that 90% of America is plumb freakin' crazy.

Read it, read the blame game, the finger pointing game, the tax increasing game, the "only gov spending can create jobs at this time" idiocy. 

America has plenty of financial, intellectual, and natural resources.  
The stock market pricing is not at all any indication of wealth, yet 15 years ago, I thought this was the case.   I was proud of our "stock market" as a symbol of wealth, usually always going up.  

I am hardly paying attention to London.   But people are mad, hell ya, lots of mad people everywhere.   Most don't even understand what they are mad about, it just is.   A phase, a wave.

This kind of feels like a P3, primary wave down, of cycle or super cycle degree in Elliot Wave terms.    Sure is steep.

From my little Pacific anecdotal slice of life, I can assure you that people (customers, past clients) are just going off, about the silliest things.   Fear and Greed make for an interesting Sloppy Joe Six Pack.

Let me break this down quickly for you.    Although I like astronomy and think that it affects us far more than we know and like to admit, I am not big on Astrology.   However, this Mercury retrograde thing is by personal observation, very strong.   Google it.   Bottom line...not just physical communication methods, but the act of communicating at all can get very screwed up, and your computer might just blow up or scramble it's operating system.   So back stuff up.    August 2 started the Retrograde, it goes to the 26th. 

 Here is an old article I did in a prior retrograde, how to backup computer, you don't have to do all of it, each piece is valuable by itself.
Mercury Retrograde
BEFORE Mercury stations Retrograde is the ideal time to finish projects that involve communication and close big deals. Ordering and purchasing, especially for business, can be continually problematic if purchases are initiated during Mercury Retrograde. Letters can get lost in the mail, machinery can break down, computers can go haywire; connections don't always work. Mercury Retrograde is not an aspect you'll want in the chart of a new venture unless you thrive on ongoing stress or if you're starting a repair business or anything that is recurring. Take care of external communications -- that's what can get dysfunctional and problematic. Problems that come up are not usually not enough stop you from making progress. It's just that there can be annoying little unexpected and unplanned-for buggy things with the potential to delay progress and otherwise try to trip your switches.

Mercury the trickster, however, has a dual nature. During retrograde periods, while there are problems with external communications, the inner communications part works better. Use this time profitably to get in touch with yourself. Analyze the information you've already collected, re-think and evaluate plans before jumping to action, meet with old friends.

Markets using the meat grinder and time

The markets use time to "wear traders" down.

This could be part manipulation, but is mostly just the inherent construct of markets.

Traders are kind of waiting for the Bernanke to speak (I think Tues Wed) and at least hint of  QE3.

Anyone with long bets, call options, has seen them sucked dry through price movement and just general pricing by MM's.

Time is not necessarily on your side.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

S&P 500 Downgrade of US Debt

The big ratings agencies are kind of like the big unions.   At one time, they served a real need and launched with a real purpose.

Organizations tend to decay over time.   Especially the successful ones that create a near monopoly for themselves.    It is almost like guaranteed death.   A slow agonizing death, like a bronto stuck in a tar pit.

This is the actual S&P downgrade report attached here:

Standard and Poors is part of the Economic Hit Man (ECH) team.   For decades they were hitting the 2nd world and 3rd world countries, setting them up with reports and ratings, loading them with debt and promises, and then extracting control and profits by the enslavement with debt.    It was and is quite a business model.   Many players in the business don't actually even realize just how evil the whole setup is, or their part in it.

Sometime in the last decade the ECH decided to turn it's sights on the Motherload, the United States.   It wasn't enough to just get their kickbacks from the Brokers (who front ran those upgrades and downgrades on stocks).   They wanted to take the mothership itself, not just milk it for profits. 

And so here we are, with the S&P now dictating to the Gov, at least trying to.  

Some keys points:
  • The S&P wants the gov to tax people more.   More money in the pot means  more they can latch  onto.
  • The S&P wants the gov to keep rates low, below zero actually, to penalize savers, and force that money to "go to work".   When your broker states "it's time  to put some money to work" that's about time to run for the hills.
  • The S&P does not want gov to cut spending, they want balance by taxes.   Gov spending is dumb money.   Those who are entrusted to spend money that is not theirs, often spend it foolishly.
  • Also, no mention of pulling back the military from 180 countries, military force or at least the threat of it, can advance ECH principles.
  • No mention of cutting the size of Government.   Some government workers do "produce", for instance teachers, but the vast majority of government produces nothing, if anything they is a direct drag on productivity, not just an indirect cost.
When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion -- when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing -- when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors -- when you see that men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you -- when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice -- you may know that your society is doomed.
Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "Account Overdrawn."
Hey that Ayn Rand was pretty right-on, she died in 1982, didn't get to see The Orwellian 1984.   You know that 1000 page book, Atlas Shrugged, you were supposed to read in High School?    Just bought it, free super saver shipping, Amazon. 

More Good Quotes here

Why indeed? To Think, perchance to Rant

My reply to a fairly radical post on  ENENews, once of the best aggregators of Fukushima and other nuclear news.

Indeed, not just what you say, but complementary to it, are the other factors which are all outside a 4 sigma probability.   The utter greed, the leverage of financial tools to over $600T, the markets, the government intervention, the wars, the media control, the food handouts, and the completely inept handling of disasters.  Why indeed.  The question of our lives perhaps, think on these things.

There are some pretty radical views expressed on ENENews.   There are also obvious shills sent from elsewhere to just rant and discredit the efforts of ENENews.
Ah, someone noticed. Somehow I knew who it would be…
WARNING; Personal belief, theory, and rambling thoughts follows….
I have been thinking about this for a bit now,
The sun and how it fits into my gut feeling that something is going on.
Something is happening that the PTB does not want the sheeple to know about.
Maybe they are not totally positive about it,
but the data is pointing an ugly finger at the menace.
Why all of the warnings to prepare for something. What is going on?
Well, when NASA tells thier people to be ready, I am listening.
I believe there is some truth to the wisdom of the mayans and our solar system entering an area of
the milky way as it loops around to a point that it has entered in the past.
I believe that this area is not earth and life friendly. I believe that the PTB knows this.
I believe that all of the cloud seeding, not just in the USA,
but around the world in the populated areas, has a reason. What?
Is the sudden PTB interest in HAARP part of this attempt to shield us from these energies from space?
I believe that the extra cloud seeding is thier feeble and stupid attempt at
“protecting” the masses for as long as possible.
Water is a moderator of all things nuclear and radiological. We know this.
Global warming and Climate change has put vast amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere.
Take a measured amount of water and freeze it.
Set the ice container back out into the table and let it melt.
Your measured amount of water is significantly less.
Transpiration has released a lot of it into the air.
When there are sunny days, we are seeing record temperatures.
But we are seeing extended periods of cloud cover and much cooler temps.
I think that they “discovered” the effects of all the extra water vapor
in the atmosphere is moderating the energies they are seeing hit this planet from the heavens.
Their thinking: More is better, right? So they cloud seed…
Have you seen the record temperatures across the globe?
Have you seen all the reports of the persistant cloud cover across the planet?
Have you seen the persistant cloud cover personally?
Have you seen the earth shivering and quaking alot lately?
Have you seen the wild weather across the globe lately?
Have you see the reports of the PTB gearing up for?
Were the indigenous people of the americas correct in passing down the legends to thier children?
Has our solar system been around the block before.
Does our caucasion people have legends of planet wide disasters?
Is the sun quivering and acting up, spitting out energies?
Is there a commonality to all these events?
Tell me I’m nuts! It’s okay. I am not ignorant.