Friday, December 3, 2010

History of leaks

The parallels are large.

Gaming of Metals and Energy

This excerpt describes the frustration of the regulators to regulate as metals and energy are gamed away.

Statement on Position Limits, “Keeping Promises”

Commissioner Bart Chilton

December 2, 2010
Yesterday the Commission held the sixth in a series of open meetings to address rules implementing the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.  I commend the CFTC’s staff for working diligently on the myriad rules mandated by the Act, even now in the face of a pay freeze.  The staff of the CFTC truly exemplifies the meaning of “service” in the performance of their roles as dedicated public servants.
I am concerned, however, with regard to the potential derailment of what I consider to be one of the most important rules required by the Reform Act:  implementation of speculative position limits.  Congress put special emphasis on this provision, to protect markets and consumers from excessive speculation in commodities markets.  Indeed, we were given a specific implementation date for position limits on energy and metals contracts—January 17, 2011—well in advance of the majority of other Reform Act rules.  We have a commitment to enact this rule on time, a “promise to keep,” with the American consumer who is affected daily by the prices discovered on commodities markets.
The Commission had originally intended to discuss position limits at yesterday’s meeting; unfortunately, that did not occur.  Now, it appears that the Commission does not intend to address position limits at its next scheduled open meeting, on December 9, 2010.  This makes meeting the mandatory statutory deadline difficult, but certainly not impossible.
The Reform Act was passed over four months ago—this provision isn’t a “surprise” to anyone.  It didn’t fall out of the sky.  Of course there are issues surrounding its implementation, but none of those excuse us from meeting the statutory requirements Congress has given us.   This proposal should be discussed on December 9th at the Commission’s next meeting; a proposal should be put out for public comment as soon as possible; and we should commit to meeting the statutory deadline.  We can always find excuses, justifications, or pretexts for inaction—this rule is too important to let any of those get in the way of fulfilling our statutory responsibilities, and keeping our promise.
Last Updated: December 3, 2010

Friday close post

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Lawyers, Guns, and Money

Took a long on ol Bucky, based on an apparent Fibo support.
We will see, Euro has continued to fall against all other comers, esp commodity countries. But against USD Euro is forming a triangle which is often a stopping point before the final move. The waves don't count nicely, if this is wave 4, then 5 up is still to come, and my DX long will stop out.

Wikileaks on Banks (aka a leak about a leak, that is a double negative)

Notice how many leaks there are that Wikileaks is gong to be pounding the banks?

When there is this much news, you need to consider it may be misinformation.   Consider that XLF will be gunned bullish over the next few days, perfect way to conduct a throw off top....

leak news to get bearish bets placed (more of them)
Then use the government rirement plan assets under management to start buying XLF
Call your broker buddies and let them in on the secret
Ramp XLF, blowing shorts and using the tricked shorts money to blow the stops off the other shorts with stops at higher levels....booom a blow off top that scares new shorts from entering.....

Now let gravity take it as the Bank/Broker shorted at the top


Fear Factor - Do we have a new channel?

Experimental, but would set a downtrend.

USD is key I believe, getting pounded so to speak, but for how long?

 My old friend Cable, 5 down 3 up, if so, that sets the trend for further USD strength.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Global view of visitors

this link is so cool, a rotating globe that shows visitors.

And here is a video capture from last night of visitors.  Southern Hemisphere.   Poor Africa.

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Great Guest Charts!!!

Most of these are from Darell, a strong contributor!   Thanks Darell.

Colin Twiggs is an appreciated market writer. He keeps it simple and sometimes we can all make it too complicated. However, I say this in all due respect, Twiggs does too much with horizontal support and resistance lines. Clearly, sloped channel lines are doing a better job of showing market behavior. Not sure how he calculates his money flow indictor, but it seems often spot on, sometimes a false alarm.  Purple lines are by me.

Gartleys, and Rising 3's, and 78's, oh My!

Looks like Copper nailed a near Gartley anyway, just shy of the 78 and the PRS, one more push? Got enough shorts now, will just watch

Wednesday Metals

Quite a divergence, copper rocketing up, gold and silver down it was easy it would be called making money instead of HBB Casino.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Excel sheet list of ETFS for metals and PM's

I intend to add functioning link to charts for all of these, but no time now.   If someone wants to do it, i will give credit and post it up, probably takes 1.5 hours.

The link below will directly download the excel file, check it out and comment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rally, up to, well 2% from here.....

Amazing how many people are talking about a 'rally" to 11250 on the Dow, wow that's almost 2%.

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NQ long closed for profit

My price (see chart), usually if I am short this is where I get stopped out...but I was long, sold off at best price (on a pre-set limit), my reward for being long.    Apple was not participating in the overall "recovery" but did start picking up.   Apple is a huge percentage of Nasdaq

Market just a little weak whilst USD has been quite strong

US Equities Market have been ramped up and down for sure. But overall they are just a bit weak, whilst USD is quite strong.

Assuming correlations hold, that would mean market would be increasing if USD was flat or falling.

The HBB wants to maximize their bonuses this year. I find it odd that the entire banking system (which is now HBB for the most part) make only $10B the whole year, and it still has to lie through it teeth to achieve that, yet $100B in bonuses look to get paid out. Not just odd perhaps, absurd, criminal. Whatever, that is not an issue we can solve here.

Got kicked out of copper short last night, and staying out for now, no time to really analyze and follow trades during the day. Which stinks, since playing individual issues can be quite profitable, this market is like a pop-a-mole game on red bull, as fast money and sector/stock rotation allow some quick trades.

I have a truck full of copper scrap, will make time to take it to the scrap yard this week, probably turn into $1500 USD cash.   Amazingly, they vary their buy prices directly with the spot copper price, will get probably $2.8 per pound on the scrap.

Charts from Monday

Fourth chart down is Fear Factor. When this breaks Trendlines (which it is sure stretching them), and market follows, then market "recovers" but FF continues down (which means increasing Fear) then I will have large bearish bets steadfastly in place. What you do is your own business, if you do not understand the reasons for placing a trade, you won't have the conviction to conclude that trade.

 Finally look at this SPAM email below.    What a joke!   Is profiting $19 in 2 days going to get someones attention enough to invite malware into their computer.   Weird!

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Inflation as Proven by PNC Financial --12 days of Christmas

I am glad they have the category breakdowns and YOY comparisons.
And that's all i have to say about that.....

Cost of 'Twelve Days of Christmas' items
Prices of items in the Christmas carol "The Twelve Days of Christmas," according to PNC Wealth Management:
- Partridge, $12 (last year: $10)
- Pear Tree, $150 (last year: same)
- Two Turtle Doves, $100 (last year: $56)

- Three French Hens, $150 (last year: $45) - 

Four Calling Birds (canaries), $600 (last year: same)
- Five Gold Rings, $650 (last year: $500)
- Six Geese a-Laying, $150 (last year: same)
- Seven Swans a-Swimming, $5,600 (last year: $5,250)
- Eight Maids a-Milking, $58 (last year: same)
- Nine Ladies Dancing (per performance), $6,294 (last year: $5,473)
- 10 Lords a-Leaping (per performance), $4,767 (last year: $4,414)
- 11 Pipers Piping (per performance), $2,356 (last year: $2,285)
- 12 Drummers Drumming (per performance), $2,553 (last year: $2,475)

OK here proves 2 points....

1) Inflation is already here.
2) Real workers --the maids a Milking get paid far less than rather "non productive" work of Ladies Dancing (with the stars perhaps).

and Finally....I wouldn't pay a red cent to the Lloyd's a leaping in a tutu, doing god's work no less.

And what is up with the Gold Rings barely going up in cost?  

It's All Good!

On the Slope someone started listing things that were "uncertain", but I think they only touched the tip of the iceberg.

This list is only partly a joke!  That is a joke

  1. Gov in the pocket of banksters
  2. Elimination of contract law
  3. Iran with nukes
  4. Loss of production capability
  5. shitty work ethics
  6. Union control leading to malaise and high prices
  7. Pensions plans seeking risk to "bounce back" to where they need to be.
  8. A nation of 30 and 40 YO earners who have money being made but have only seen a bull market their whole lives.
  9. Global warming and concurrent problems
  10. Loss of trust and confidence
  11. Loss of constitution and civil liberties
  12. Rampant corruption seen as normal and "spin" is fine
  13. Orwellian madness complemented by lemming like behavior entranced by dancing with the stars
  14. Currency wars to be followed by protectionism
  15. Problems caused by excess money, being solved with "more money"
  16. Terrorism run amok
  17. Southern neighbor Mexico under control of drug cartels
  18. Belief that big Government is what we need
  19. Removal of Doonesbury from main comic section to obscure part of paper
  20. Federal workers wages increasing 30% whilst average worker stagnates.
  21. Unabashed lies on nearly all gov economic reports
  22. Insider trading is normal
  23. Large scale manipulation of stock market by big brokers
  24. Large scale manipulation of stock market by gov trying to restore confidence through wealth effect.
  25. Wiki leaks provides a look into international relations like making sausage --- no one will like seeing it
  26. Sunspots and meteorites as upcoming threats
  27. Magnetic poles about to switch
  28. 2012 prophecy coming up
  29. Numerous biblical fore-warnings playing out
  30. Europe about to be ripped apart by their common currency
  31. Reality of pain inflicted by austerity just begginning
  32. Unrealistic expectations of what lifestyle is supposed to be normal
  33. Chinese missiles being fired off our shores to warn us not to default on the debt by printing money.
So I wanted to add these to the original list.

Can't make this stuff up.... Here are the list of issues facing the equity markets:

1 - Korean War
2 - Muni debt failing to be funded
3 - Double dip in housing prices
4 - Sovereign debt
5 - Hedge fund raids leading to redemptions
6 - Sentiment readings at multi year high bullish readings
7 - Cash at funds at multi year lows
8 - Fundamentals that even if they are improving are way below trend for a recovery at this stage.
9 - Commodity prices causing margin squeezes
10 - Mortgage gate

I'm sure I missed a few. Seriously, is that uncertainty or what?
 Please add to this list if you can think of anything more....

Added a "Pages" feature - please comment

Cleaned up Blog, New Stuff, Added Pages Rather than junking up the sidebars, let me know how you like this, looking for comments on current format as well as any other suggestions to make this blog better and more useful to you

Also currently at far bottom I added an embedded PDF from Martin Armstrong, one of the best minds of the markets scribbling from a prison cell.    I haven't researched that whole story, if anyone knows please chime in.

Also, testing this link which should also work as a direct download.

And here is a big download, Explanation for the Flash Crash


This is a sector report from Leisa, she posts at bluechipbulldog and maybe elsewhere, it's 10MB.   

Please check it out, it's a good way to wrap you mind around the market.   Sector rotation is a known fact.   The big boyz move money around and around, if you can guess where the T-Rex tracks go next, you can jump on it's back like a swashbuckling gecko, and make money.

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Boatload O' Charts

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EURO Bounce Time perchance?

Tape Banging

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This type of violent tape banging is hard on traders unless you are following T-Rex in it's footsteps, and successfully not getting crushed on the sharp turns. 

This capture from Breakpoint Trades in their Sunday newsletter.

Shows an intense tape banging on "the biggies" SPX and INDU, not as much of a bang on Nas and Russell

I think most traders realize that if you are going to trade, you need to work on Sunday.   If there is a time to wrap your mind around the market, it is Sunday, outside the heat of action.

Now many people, like me, don't want to spend their whole Sunday creating and analyzing charts,    So I pay BPT around $1.33 per day to do all that basic work for me.    Let's see....if my time is worth say $85 per hour, and $1.33 saves me 30 minutes to several hours per that a good investment, heck yes.

One of the items you ought to have on your radar is a summary of indicators.   This could take hours to maintain, or you can simply open the weekend newsletter and review.   This tells me it's fine to hold January puts, although put a stink ask price on them, since the long term indicators still show higher highs to come.

Of course a wild card like a real war in the Korea's could have a black swan effect regardless of the long term indicators.  Technically the US is in an armistice with North Korea, that means that technically we are still at war with North Korea, but that we have agreed to stop fighting.    My take on this is that there is no "vote" needed to resume war, simply a decision of the Talker in Chief. drop the name Dabama.