Saturday, July 18, 2009

Might as Well go LONG?!?!?!

OK, so everyone knows what happens to bears, and everyone knows that the USD is on the verge of being toast, and everyone knows that the indices have moved exact opposite to the USD index. So everyone knows the markets are going up next week, right?

'nuff said.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Boatload O' TK Tickers -- leechfest

OK--All you "Leechier than thou" peeps, here it is, without further ado.
List of tickers that TK gave me permission to re-use in a beefed up format. Tim posted these today as trade ideas. Not only do you get the list with more information, you can download it in Excel format and also in Txt format. The txt file can be imported directed into a Prophet charts watchlist.

The files are below...please sign up on the right as a follower, and you will be automatically notified when I post more Boatloads.

Chicken Pick of the Day, Boatload O' Chicken

I SPY a New Channel

If this channel plays out, there can be an extended duration of Whipsaw for the Bulls and Bears alike. After all, GS needs some trading profits.

I'll keep this short -- The positive earnings we have seen have been based primarily upon one time events which are positive and/or exclusion of bad "one time events". Keep that in mind as the earnings spin continues throughout the month.

Next week has some major earnings reports, KO, SGP, QLGC, AAPL, AMD, CHRW, AMZN, EMC

Real companies, producing and delivering real products that we really want. Not just our financial overlords spinning stories to us.

Options Expiry Think About August

July is almost over, and it looks like alot of stocks are "pinning" to important option price levels. Although today may not be the right day, I am going to be reviewing August options for either "rolling forward" to September or later, i.e. buying more time, or closing out in some way.

As of now, the Stochastics remain very overbought, and for an extended time, and I am anticipating pricing softness into next week, if not a full on downturn.

However, August options will now start to experience increasing "Theta Burn" which is a loss of the time value portion of the option pricing. Vix is low right now (see prior post, seems likes it will want to move up in the not so distant future), low Vix means relative low option pricing, thus leading towards a decision to roll forward. Of course the all important price direction is a key issue, and everyone's crystal ball is a little foggy after this last week.

Finviz Comes Up With FX Charts

Finviz is awesome. Loads of information at a quick glance. Now they have FX as of today. There is strong inverse correlation between the equity markets and the USD, at least of late, and Finviz will help digest these moves and possible impacts on other markets.

Options Expiry Today

Friday Close is settlement prices for most equity options, although some/most index options actually settle at Thursday's close.

It is obvious from futures and and index price action that the big money had bet big money on a high settlement price for the indices. We have "known" this for a long time that the indices themselves are gamed, 1) because they can be, 2) because big money needs places where big money can move around with ample liquidity.

Keep an eye on SCHN, and the 3X bear financial FAZ which has some interesting patterns playing out. Unemployment continues to worsen, and debt defaults from the big screen renta-a-center to peoples domicile should continue upward.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

New Chart Pattern, One that is not yet Blown Up by the Hal 2000's

This is the first time this pattern has been identified, so we are not sure what it measures to. What we are sure of, is that if we have to watch another weeks tape like this, we will go back to "working".

I used to be annoyed, now I am just disgusted (sing to Elvis Costello tune)

Ah, so we see how this pattern resolves at a later time-frame.

ES for the morning after

A 50% channel kiss...

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Bear Capitulation

Can the "overall view" of the market change in 3 days? From Abyss Dwelling to Jump on Before You Miss This Second Train.

How many people are thinking....darn, I wish I would have jumped on in March, but I missed it, so I better jump on now before I miss this one too. Fear and Greed, and fear of missing out. This market can only be bought based on a greater fool theory, stock is not selling for the Net Present Value of expected future earnings. In other words, it ain't worth what it costs. However, as traders this should only be a secondary consideration for us. If it is going up, we should assess the risk and reward and place our money appropriately. Cash is a position, always. To say that these are times of extreme uncertainty is an understatement.

I was too young to understand Vietnam and nothing else real bad happened until the last several of years of bubble after bubble to cover up the reality that we have to live closer to our means or invite disaster. Sure 9-11 was bad, but our reaction to it was worse. What does this mean? Just that we are in a once in a generation, at the very least, funk, and maybe worse.

The super bears...EWI and Tim Knight have basically thrown in the towel. Many others are talking about "covering my shorts at the earliest opportunity". Other smart bears are saying if it drops to 910, cover. I called it on 6-7-09 and I am calling it again.

This is a top.

The Banksta's are incidentally gaming both Elliot Theories and patterns, and doing a wonderful job of it. Amazing they can do so after some multi-billion dollar making trading programs were "stolen" and there is no backup anywhere. Does that make any sense people?

As a small business man, if I spend $3000 on custom programming or computer setups you bet I am going to have backups, and also off-site backups.

So we live in interesting times, eh?

PS I shorted ES at 929.5 and covered at 921.5...about the best and fullest extent of the move I have achieved. Certainly I have in the past bought at the worst time and sold at the worst time. Full disclosure -- luck counts, don't discount it. Or the effects of randomness or the likelihood of a 6 sigma event, when almost all the financial models are based on a statistical theory called "Normal Distribution". Also, try not to be deceived by deception.

Again think about all those people who are thinking...boy, I sure don't want to miss the next bull run. And this is expiry week, so in theory the real fireworks already went off.

Full disclosure-- I bought 1 future long at 921.5 with a stop at 920.75 in order to tank the market. When I go long, you know hell is about to freeze over, tonight we dine in hell, and bring a jacket.

Forex never sleeps (so you can't get gapped out!) GBY/JPY see annotated chart.

Musing of the Day

Our Financial Overlords still Got Game

Uncanny...every single stock on my short list or "Hot Watch List" was stopped on an important Fib line today. Some popped a little higher in the exuberance, but then quickly slid back under the Fib and then chopped around. Every one.

I was stopped out on CTX, have to review. No time for charts now, except the ABOVE which is a 3200 tick chart on the ES. Shorted ES on the second peak (figured the financial overlords would want to extract one more pound of flesh from any still bold bears, and thus expected the double peak) at 929.5. What an honor to get to reset short futures at this high a level.

And further down is the ES chart from yesterday, and todays, for comparison. Expriy fireworks usually run through Wednesday, so be on guard for extended shanigans Thursday and by this I mean a gap down, chop around to bring in the bears, and then small rally enough to break the neo-bear tenuous positions, and then a big sell off towards "min pain" for the put sellers.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Epic Battle on ES - Chart Tells a Story

This Epic Battle is being Played Out in Expiry Week. Wow.

Just matter how just your cause....if you get your ass kicked and your assets still lose.

Non-Boat O' Charts

MFC might have more upside based on good volume today, but this is expiry so all sorts of wackiness goes on in the markets.

Watch for these coiling effects, especially on MACD. Yes, use tech analysis on indicators and studies.

Dont' be decieved -- This is a Topping Pattern

If you see a freight train coming at you, but you know it's a freight train, does that mean you don't have to get off the tracks?

Nessy - Before the Plunge Back into the Primordial Ooze

Monday, July 13, 2009

Dark Wave sentiment

The sentiment I see and feel on the street is dark, very dark.

Most people might not notice, but I do tune in to it. Its the way people drive, 4 times worse than normal, manner at the grocery store, saw one guy walking down the street just ranting to himself (and no this ain't downtown)

Sentiment on blogs almost the same, people taking pot shots and then just apologizing, arguing in a less nice way. These are the fringes of the dark wave.

We all know even if a rally occurs, its a bullshit rally, Even if we all agree this is no longer a bear market rally, but a real bull, we would still all agree that it is real bullshit.

So my watchful, but also realize that you too will be affected by the Dark Wave and so try to be nice to others. Make it a point. Realize that when you about to go off, that it the Dark Wave speaking to you, and reign it in, operate at a higher level. Stay focused, and keep time for the market. Who isnt burnt out? Right here in the middle of a boring slow summer trading season, yes, indeed, this is where the coin will be banked...if you don't let the Dark Wave overpower you.

Es channel as I see it, never forget the 38 Fib at 910

No price is too high when you are using someone else's MONEY

My thought would be this is Options Expiry week "antics". M,Tu,We are the big days, big price moves. They undoubtedly were able to sweep many short stops and scare a number of recent put buyers (CNBC hyping the head and shoulders) out of their positions. They also wanted to reclaim the 900 level on $SPX which they did with a frantic last 2 minutes of futures buying--over 130,000 futures in 2 minutes. Someone had ulterior motives since there is no need to purchase so quickly at a premium--futures keeps trading all night.

Overall daily volume was twice normal of the last month

See below on how to grow green shoots on a budget, only $5.8B to create an end of day "blip", of course using some State's employees retirement fund no doubt.

ES and SPX perspectives

This is options expiry week, so the major fireworks happen on Mon, Tues, Wed. Channel lines and Fib lines are likely support and resistance. Today 2% fireworks (so far) has popped back above the horizontal neckline, but hasn't done a serious pass at the up-sloping neckline on the ES, but has popped through the up-sloping neckline on the $SPX. I tend to think the ES is a little smarter, a little less retail.

Keep your eyes open for any "glowing" government reports. This would be indicating that the interventionists think that they can eliminate a market cycle by short term pumping to "get the bull confidence back". And its best to watch out as the 800 lbs gorilla flails about.

Small Boat O' Charts

These are favorites from the Boatload O' Tickers List. High P/E, Easy to Borrow,Good Volume, and earning in Late July. It doesn't mean they are all shorts!

Also check Hoku on a bankruptcy play. Look at those after hours trades....did something get leaked about their upcoming earnings and assessment of the future?

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Earnings Season is Upon Us

The second quarter was all about the "Green Shoots" which I described adequately in the pictorial below. I wonder how earnings will be presented.... 2Q was great and we are cautiously optimistic for 3Q and 4Q.

All asset classes are tracking each other. DID YOU HEAR THAT? This is not normal. It is part of deleveraging / deflation. They are all going down together.

EARNINGS: a number of issues we have talked about have earnings this week.


Also, one I didn't chart was HOKU. They have heavily invested into PV panel manufacturing while PV panel prices are crashing, they are just building a factory now.

And watch USO, oil is crashing, but this is a possible long.

Suspicious Indices and ETF's

It is worthwhile to look at more than just a ticker and a chart when you are dealing with indices and ETF's. You might be surprised at how they are calculated.

For instance, I was stoked about shorting RTH, until I found out it was hugely Wal-Mart which would probably fare pretty well in tougher times.

Check out ETF Connect, it is a good information source. One stop shopping for all your ETF questions. Sorry you have to copy and paste

The USD index is also an oddball, please click to enlarge this screen cap and check it out.

However one final thought....this oddball index is doing a good job of being inversely correlated with the $SPX, so maybe it does serve a good purpose.

Boatload O' Tickers - Chart Patterns

These charts all have interesting patterns. There are shorts and longs here.

Housing "Article" is a study in Socio-economics

I do glance through the newspaper and even occasionally some TV just to keep my finger on the pulse of the "real world" even though price and volume data occupy most of my research time.

However, this real estate "article" is a study in Socio-Economics, and it shows why the bubble has not yet burst, please read and comment. This by itself does not "prove" that there is much more room for human error due to greed, and that a significant top is near (or just passed in June), but it galvanizes my position -- short. Do not be deceived by the Master of Deception, the "Market".