Saturday, January 15, 2011

Earning Season is here, Expiry Next Friday

Add caption
Below chart is from Darrell, it appears that this ratio preceeds market moves AND that is a big thing!

USD / Rusell / T-note interest rate

or look at it this way

USD/Rusell * Tnote-sales price

When the Rusell goes up more than the dollar goes down, then animal spirits abound and this ratio goes down.  If at the same time Tnote-sales price goes down, i.e. the risk trade is ON, then ratio goes down more.

Friday, January 14, 2011

FX on the edge

Which Edge you say?

Euro is at a very important point.

Fundamentals and technicals say it will be down.   However, if it breaks up, and you are short as is my Euro futures short, you better be ready to take some lumps and figure out the next trade.

The blow off top is the perfect sign the big traders ran this up to pop stops hiding behind prior high...that is what they do before they withraw their bid

Cable is nearly the same situation.

If you see 3 news articles about Euro stability, that strengthens the short stance.   If you see 3 articles about "the Euro is toast" better watch out shorts!

No Post today

Lack of Interest and participation, many blogs closing down/losing all participation.

This is the sign of a top.  Remember how the big shenanigans of 07/08 happened on the weekends.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Tribute to Evil Spec

Was organizing my trade folders and came across this old chart from Mole of Evil  Spec.

How true that was!

New Years Resolution - No Rants - Only Trade Ideas

Best trade idea I have is a short on Cable.

Funny how the USD is pounded (pun intended) whilst Euro land troubles are "talked into shape" and Australian disastrous floods results in a rush against ol Bucky.  

Seems odd that the "largest markets in the world" the FX is ramped against "common sense".   Well good chance that the gaming is done.

Note chart number 2 is from Carlos, go visit him and his sponsors.

Euro seems like it's uber ramp may be done, basically any short the Euro from the last peak is already stopped out.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Blatant Corruption by the Banksters


Banksters are not just the banks.   They are the Humongous Bank and Broker, aka HBB.  The brokers are the ones who primarily took control over financial regulations.   So even though now they have a "Schwab Bank" most people think of banks as Citi, Wells Fargo, etc.--- but please don't let the big brokers off the hook--they are active participants in this great transfer of wealth.  

The banksters (HBB) have been creating the rules so that they can claim income they never received and probably will never receive on bad debts.   That lets them inflate their earnings now, so they can justify huge bonuses while Rome burns.   Then a few years down the line, when they might be forced to recognize these bad loans and reality that they never received the interest much less the principal, then they can "blow up" and get another bailout on Fed/Taxpayer shoulders.   Nice.

Search Google for Soros new World Order.

Seems like Georgy is getting senile...doesn't he know that stuff is supposed to be a secret.

If you want to live in interesting times, be careful what you wish for.

Push up was correct, Put Call Ratio Deep Analysis

This chart partially lifted from Bvine


And modified by me.   There is that 2 bottom divergence, but it is so far outside the box, I don't know what it means, if it is still valid.  

The 20DMA, a favorite of mine lately, seems to show WHEN NOT TO BE A BEAR.   But it is not currently saying this is the time to be a bullish-it type.

I was going to get that Stock Charts membership, based on getting 10 whole clicks on sponsers, but did not get there.   Stockcharts sure lets you overlay many types of charts, which TOS is fairly poor at. 

I would like to try this same chart but with some different DMA's, more to come on that.

Another push up

although ES is taunting a PRS 133 line (old one and a newer channel I just drew today), both are hitting PRS 133.

However, the EUR/USD appears to have some more Fib to push up to at least 50% retracement 61 even more likely.

AUD will need to run higher against the USD to knock out more new shorts.

DX hit some volume extremes on it's shake out run today, however, based on the above, I see more downside.

Also a famous EW pub pronounced "the end is near" last night, meaning ramp against the bears.  They also re-entered a silver short, claiming not to have been hurt by their last silver short since they decided to drop the stops on that one.   I have confirmed but I never read that "lower your stops" comments, although I have stopped reading  them daily, and trade results have improved. 

AND Fear Factor needs another push up in order to pop the upper Bollinger.


Tick has continued to fall off its prior ledge, though prices levitate

See our Indicator page, check the pages, I am trying to make them more useful   It all takes time, our most precious resources.

Indicator Page
Tick has continued to fall, even though prices have levitated.

In all fairness though, since Jan 1, tick exploded higher on day 1, then has bounced around higher, the upper chart shows 21 day MA, kind of a monthly, or moonly if you will, trading cycle.

Illinois raising personal income tax 66%

This is a raise from 3% to 5%.

Illinois lawmakers have approved a politically risky 66 percent income tax increase in an effort to solve a historic budget crisis.
The bill now goes to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, who supports the plan.

Hawaii is and has been 8.25% which is absurd given the bureaucratic and low levels of service provided.  The goal for many people in Hawaii is to get a government job, then you are all set for life.

More of these type of direct taxes and hidden taxes coming.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Chat4Traders and Overall Snarkiness

I have noted overall snarkiness increasing.   Also sad to say that Chat4Traders closed down, a realtime trading chatroom.    Snarkiness one factor.

The snark usually rears it's ugly head at times of a top (and those tops are very small in this "we don't need no stenkin' corrections" world of "government/private partnerships.

 A favorite junior miner.   Not because I trust them even a bit, only because the stock goes up.   Panama Gold.

And this one I have had since 1.25.   A nice double.   

And finally, this picture, seems like the deer is visible in the front window, so maybe that is just clever photoshopping. Real or photoshop, you be the judge!



This is from last year, which is so...well, last year, cool stuff the Astro stuff.

Any everyone used to call Comets dirty ice balls.   

Not this one....odd shaped and spitting out cyanide at widely varying rates.   
Passing by the earth about 1/8 the distance  between sun and Earth.  


Weird.  Lots of comets and extreme Astro stuff lately.   If there is anything really weird going on though, I am sure we would all be completely informed. 

Magnetic North pole is accelerating rapidly towards Russia.  Well --at about 600 yards per day.  

Monday, January 10, 2011

All new VOC ratio

I hope this is kind of funny....

Chick Chart stolen from Dr J, it's great when I can just blame that stuff on Dr. J

Wow, check out this "news" article.

Energy Charts

Great Charts from the Oil Drum

It is tough work putting together even one of these charts from raw data.   Here are 100 that simplify the world of energy into pictures.

For all the talk that solar gets, it is still a miniscule contributor to the energy supply.

Oil is being used far less for electricity production, although Hawaii is still like 70% oil burning for electricity.   On the mainland, oil burning plants have switched to coal, or are just not being used because demand is down.

Balance of Asset Classes

There is a theory I have held in the past, and that others have thrown at me lately, and it is that money has to go somewhere.   If it leaves one asset class, it must flow into another asset class, so that the net worth of all the asset classes would only change slowly over time, in relation to growing GDP say.  

So I made an indicator comprised of S&P 500, PM, Bonds, and Real Estate.  And I tried to use multipliers to fairly weight them.  This fair weighting is of course open to debate and further study.

However, I think one thing is clear.    This approach should result in a straight line if the balance was right and if correct asset classes were chosen.  

By the chart below, this is obviously not the case.   THEORY--when asset classes are invested using margin and leverage, it is not a zero sum game leading to a straight line.  

Please comment, also feel free to visit some sponsors, consider it buying Hawaii Trading a cheap cup of coffee .

Don't over think this

Why would people be so greedy?   So reckless?   Who knows....maybe "they" know the rapidly accelerating magnetic pole shift could cause alot of earthquakes or volcanos.    Is this news to you?   Best research it a bit.

But try not to overthink this whole mess.

The world is in a world of hurt.

bonds are not safe, stocks are not safe. 

Cash is kind of safe except you can guarantee that printing presses the world over will be going off......

hmmmm how about buying stock in a printing press company?

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Impressive Trade Ideas

While I have been wasting my time trying to trade S&P 500 futures, perhaps the most liquid but also gamed by HAL 20000 computers, I have actually done better using specific stock trades that I have identified from patterns and candlesticks, and really, from ideas that I purchased.

Check out this trade log, there are a few losers for sure.   Let the stop do it's work, then move on, NEXT TRADE!

These are from Breakpoint Trades

Lost Society

Another funny video

World Stock charts

Breakpoint Trades did an eye opening report today on world stock markets.

Seems like almost every market is up 10% to 20% since September, and many of the foreign markets have already started a path down.  

Matt from BPT also shows a pattern of FXI (some China stocks) leading the US indices by 4 to 5 months.

OK -- so what?!?!?!?!

A few points:

The US is still a financial leader
This is not just a Fed produced ramp of buying US stocks.  Can I throw out "global mass hysteria" perhaps.

BPT has a special deal going on, never seen before 25% coupon.   Check it out.

good video