Friday, February 4, 2011

TNX breakout

TNX breakout!

We noted this bull flag a while back(January 23, third chart down) , and called for a bullish breakout, Indeed we got that bullish breakout


and indeed the breakout did occur. 

Classic "Pre-news stop sweep"

 Classic HBB "Pre-News Stop Sweep".   The real question is, with so many market makers, and so many participants, how can they coordinate this action and how can they get away with it?  I guess they can just blame it on the quants and bots,but c'mon folks, this is obviously a coordinated effort involving many millions of dollars.
I have seen this action for years, prior to an anticipated and publicised  news event such as a Fed decision or a big employment report.   The example here is prior to the employment report.  As folks tighten up there stops on both sides of the trade, HBB wipes them out with this "Pre-News Stop Sweep"

 Last night, I called this a "fake break" and went short, and that was a beautiful move.   Stop is at small profit, and there is plenty of room to breath and let NZD make a large move downward.   When you have room to breathe, you don't have to "get cute" and try to trade every up and down, which is exceptionally hard in these "modern markets" 

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Quickpost, No moon and a push up makes "non-sense"

Sometimes the moon phase matters a lot, it has only mattered a little lately in this final emotional POMO push for confidence.  

New moons are more dramatic then full.   It is a new moon now, that means no moon.  

Moves come a day or three after the moon, when they do come. 

I expect a move up in US indices to wear out the bears that were already taunted and ramped.   On the next 2% move down what bear will jump on?   Not many.   10% later, the bears will be lamenting that they "missed it", and then a 78% Fib ramparoni again.   Get used to it, or don't play.

Look at bottom of blog, I am replicating   which is an awesome site.   I would do my own, but already do it so good.

Quicknote: Doctor Copper is on Drugs -- Easy Money

Did a s few posts on Dr Copper.

Copper is rallying up like a son a gun.

However, at the same time in the big metals exchanges that deal in physical have seen significant and steady increase in inventory.   

This is big...Dr copper, now know to the world as what to watch, is being gamed.   The doc is being played, no respect for the Doc.   And those following the Doc?  

check it out on your own or you won't believe me.

Gold with a massive spike up, to perfectly test the new PRS 177, Bond rates

Now we shall see if this new channel line "holds water" so to speak.

At the very least the PRS lines provide logical places to set stops, so if I was short gold I would have stopped above the PRS 100 (main channel line).

Reality check: Bonds have come down in price, but buying them now could still be disasterous.   People are chasing .5% interest rate (yield), or UP TO 3.5% rates for some corporate bonds, that you could easily end up taking a 35% haircut on.    That is a 10 to 1 risk in the wrong direction.

Because the Bernank is buying bonds with QE2, interest rates stay low.   If however you buy bonds now, and QE 2 stops, then interest rates (yield -- it's the same thing actually, they try to trick you by changing the verbage, it just one of the deception tools in play.  Every industry has these type of deception tools, not just the financials)---the interest rates go up and your bond you already bought become worth a lot less.

It is simple, why would someone want to buy your 5 year bond yielding 1%, when they can buy a 1 year bond yielding 3% say.     Your bond losses massive value unless you hold it until maturity, but how would you feel holding 1% for 5years, when there are other liquid and safe vehicles paying a lot more.

So here is the game....Fed has forced anyone seeking yield into risk assets, stocks, PM's, heck some people might even be considering real estate, even though that has another 50% to fall in many areas.

Unless you are willing to sit on cash, or play or hedge with highly volatile Forex, then you have two choices......very risky assets or zero return.

Zero return while inflation rears it's "hidden tax" agenda, and simultaneously US Dollar value is going down. 

Overall, it's a very sucking situation.

The only winners are going to people playing specific stock patterns and hawking over them relentlessly.   Some of those on my blogroll have been achieving 30% to 40% annual returns through lots of hard work, on a million, that is not a bad "job" to have, for the most part that beats working for a job.   But even then you have to factor in inflation and loss of Forex value (they are kind of interrelated, but also separate)

For those who have nothing, this is a great have nothing to lose.   Except of course when you go to the Costco and can't even afford the food there.   Ouch.

The GBP pound long play....I bank some coin on a big pop last night, glad I was watching because it turned down hard back to the breakout IHS line.   Now I have a new long "buy over" order in.   In TOS the "market order to boy if price is over" displays poorly IMHO...It displays at the current market price, not at the actual buy over price, that is misleading.   So I put on a price level line to remind me of where the order really is.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

GBP long futures trade working well

Just today we were pointing out GBP as about to break a massive multi year trend line....and it blasted out of there tonight, 30 minutes after I put my long trade on (small at 2 contracts...but moves influence alot of money).

Nice surpise for a change, here is the original post

and the results.  NZD tanked at same time, as did Euro.   Stop moved up to a nice profit, may get whipsawed but that is the risk.

New thinkscript page

I started a new page, look above, there are lots of pages, they all have cool stuff.   Not completely organized, but what the hey, it's free.    Klik if you can.

 Contents of page is below----

 Thinkscript and Code

Just started this page, this is Thinkscript which is the programming language for Thinkorswim:

Will add to it as I can, for the meantime I will not be providing any type of tech support on any script /code.    No warranty expressed or implied.   Use at your own risk.

If you have cool code, send it on over and I will post.

Trend Factor creates a neat envelope, that very often indicates maximum expected price moves

Tick Vix TOS

Thinkscript user manual from 2010

4 VWAPS thinkscript

The Better Volume indicator uses a combination of bid/ask volume and range to identify Volume Climax, High Volume Churn and Low Volume bars.
# Market tops are characterized by Volume Climax Up bars, High Volume Churn and Low Volume Up bars (also called Testing).
# Market bottoms are characterized by Volume Climax Down bars, High Volume Churn and Low Volume Down bars (Testing).
# Pullbacks, in either up or down trends, are similar to market topping or bottoming patterns, but shorter in duration and with simpler volume patterns.
# The Better Volume indicator works in all markets and for all time frames – but is particularly useful for tick charts.

Better volume indicator

Relative Percent Volume from thinkscripter

Relative Percent Volume

View from 40,000 feet

All the world markets rallied along with the US.  

The US equities "ramp job" was not just a POMO induced thing.  In fact POMO didn't really "add money" to the system, they mostly bought up bonds, preventing an implosion in the bond market and masking the effect of less foreign purchases.

This was a wave, not JUST manipulation.   Manipulation has always been part of the market, in the 1900's early on, if you look at the daily charts, the swings were even wilder than of late.  

As a wave, it should respond to wave counts and Fibonacci levels.  
Although have no doubt, Dabama can instruct GS to buy the futures and they will.

In fact 60% to 80% of the equities rise is attributed to first day of month and Monday gap ups....i.e. futures.


America's Favorite Dogs

It's a Bull Market in Bulldogs, I don't think that is Bullish from a Fundamental Viewpoint!

Check out this chart of how America's favorite dogs change over the last decade.  

Rottweilers, Dobermans, Shepherds, and Bulldogs all increasing in popularity.   Mostly since 2005.   Do you think that the average person can an inkling of all the shenanigans going on?

Holy Grail 2, Hardly--but 9 out of 15 ain't bad

Let's called FF without Vix, the Fear Factor-Real World FFRW.  FFRW usually moves opposite to VIX.    Not since May 2010, when stock option volatility pricing (Vix) started moving in lock step with the FF. 

To rephrase, Real World Fear has been increasing whilst stock market volatility fear (Vix) has been decreasing.   To sum it up-if you trust the Fed to ramp the stocks, you can also rest assured that everything else is going to hell in a handbasket.  

Gold Transition Channel and GBP

Disqus comments have been quite jacked up for a few weeks now. I saw one comment from DarkIP yesterday, tried to reply, couldn't. And then today it is just disappeared.

Sad state of affairs, even for a free service you would expect the occasional glitch, but not this level of non-performance. Programming one's own comment system is probably beyond my capability, so for now I just have to put up with it.

Gold is transitioning from one set of channels to the next. I have seen this before, it is a confirmation sign of the trend change.

GBP looks like a breakout on the futures, it is .3 above the breakline. Although it already did a pullback and retest, hard to buy the long here with short term overbought, it could easily retrace back to the breakline and a .3 move on futures is quite a bit of money. Just watching for the moment.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Gold Short

Check out these British Pound Futures, quite a line up, and you can't see it here, but that last push up spiked right to the line and was rejected.   Still, and IHS or a cup and handle pattern potentially.

Late Night Zero Hedge

They get a little wild over there at Zero Hedge talking about satanic hive minds and some wild quotes....

Yes, there is no other explanation, I agree.  Below is a quote I plagarized from a fellow ZHer, I think it captures the world today.
"Just look at us. Everything is backwards. Everything is upside-down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information, and religion destroys spirituality."---Michael Ellner

Monday, January 31, 2011

As valuable as Gold (anti-Gold)

The hardest trade to take right now....a short on Gold perhaps, would that curdle your blood, lose you sleep, and just feel wrong.   

Short gold based on loss of the prior PRS channel, and perfect backtest simultaneous with top channel test of the new down channel.    Tough trade to take, short gold.   Took it.

Late night perspectives

Uh, cool, but which country is she talking about?

Is the Doctor himself sick -- Correlations

Doctor Copper had a .42 correlation with SPX in month of January, but a negative correlation in the last week.   Odd, odd indeed.  
What is funny is that I have seen "Dr. Copper"posted 20 times on the blogosphere.   Indeed - we are retail, and we are observed by the Numerati aka Quant Spider Bots (QSB's).   There are now people making a specialty career on getting the best of you via advertising or market manipulation, and Google makes it all possible.

Check out these correlation charts.

Fear Factor, ACT, PMEI Log and Lin, the whole cast of characters!

Some of my favorite charts all packaged up for you today.

Check the PMEI Log scale, and amazing channel looking for a backtest.

Below capture from Pamlala posted on Daneric.  

Tin Foil Hatter theory....HBB called their buddies...pssst, hey at 1PM, right after your Martini lunch, lets just suck all the Vix out of the options premiums....
That will cause retail to hit their sell stop triggers on the puts they just bought, and it will cause more people to buy puts at a "cheap price", then we get Timmay to hand us $100B or so interest free, and ramp the heck out of the market.    High five, high five!

Futures and the PRS channel lines, compliant today

Some Late Sunday Charts, Keep things in perspective

The games have only begun, and I don't mean the Pro-Bowl!

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Summary of Asset Classes -- A new indicator

A freaking 1500 people stop by last week and there are like 2 comments, and not enough ad revenue to even buy a double shot expresso. DROP A COMMENT or a CLIK please!

 Above is a chart that I believe was annotated by DNarby

 Here is some funny stuff