Saturday, August 7, 2010

Euro, Cable (the British Pound) and the SPX were divergent

On Friday, these highly correlated "cousins" were strikingly divergent.   They move large and opposite to each other.  

This kind of odd move could be what is nicely called an "exhaustion gap" but I kind of think of it more as an intentional throw off by the big boyz, the market makers, HBB......the ones who bought the gov.  

As such I took a short position in afterhours futures on Friday afternoon.   Seemed like a no-brainer, Sunday will tell!!
I will have to rescind part of my comment/mini rant--from Thursday night, calling a top based on "all the good blogs going commercial"

There are quite a few good free site actually, but some of my old favorites have gone commercial/pay--that is fairly annoying.

Daneric provides a free site, and great analysis.
Slope of Hope is free, but the blog comments are so "party going" that it is effectively unusable.
TTW has free section and good blog commentary.
Tom of the North has some really funny stuff....
Red Dragon Leo....also good and free
Well, Hell.....look at my blogroll. PUG charges, Evil charges, others are good and free. 

So forget what I just said! Have a nice weekend.

Check the blogroll on the right hand side.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Hanging Man

Well I called the top four times since March 2009.   One of them was last night.  

In candlestick terminology, todays candle was a hanging man, a reversal sign.  

Have a nice weekend.   Be ready for more games next week.

My M.O. is that HBB is going to do everything they can to prevent small traders from profiting during the coming downfall.  

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Not Commercial

Is their a single decent blog out there that has not gone commercial?

Seriously.    This free, non commercial blog gets maybe a comment or two  per day, and yet there is  nothing else out here providing value without fee.   Even then, I wonder.

Sign of a top.  No comments on my blog...just saying....time to give up.....and thus admit a top.....


AUD/USD plus update charts at bottom

Currencies are driving things to a large extent, and by that I mean the S&P.

Lots of indices, like the trannies have bullish patterns, trannies are in a cup and handle, ready to rocket up.
Others have triangles with horizontal tops....thats bullish.   others are inverse head and shoulders.

Earnings are still coming out, and some 2Q stuff looks should, the Gov dumped $3T to $12T in order to get $300B to $500B back in GDP.    And data spin is in high gear as "they" smoke their hopium that their investment in stimulation will not tank.  

EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD all correlate well with S&P

Certainly if S&P is the 800 pound gorilla in the room, and is getting pulled down by a few currencies, the powers that be can primp the market with just a few hundred million into futures and index buys, and they can keep doing that as long as they want. So when the currencies drop, like they look ready to soon, wiithin a week max, and the 800 lbs gorilla looks like he is on crack....then get ready.  

My birthday is August 11th, then 10th is a big turn day by Bradley models, 1 of the 2 biggest of the year, they say.   I don't know the Bradley methods, however.

This is from which does some nice charts.   AUD looks near the top.

/ES if farting around in similar fashion, bouncing around some important Fibs....ramping past to 1127 last night to wipe out stops, following the silly Eur "party".    Topping patterns are hard to trade.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

GLD/SLV and SPX plotted together

I took a small short position on ES (SPX futures) based on the Cable PRS (which it tagged again tonight on a clear ramp job), and this Gold Silver. Weak handed though....
I think the USD has plenty people frustrated, but maybe not frustrated enough.


The GBP/USD is called the "Cable" because back in the day---

Investopedia Says:
For example, you may hear someone dealing with the forex market saying, "The cable is up today," or, "The cable has been trending lower lately."

The origins of this term are attributed to the fact that in the 1800s, the dollar/pound sterling exchange rate was transmitted via transatlantic cable.

Forex brokers are sometimes referred to as "cable dealers"

So in Hawaii Trading lingo Cable shall strictly mean the USD/GBP.  

Here is a PRS133 on the cable.   

And below is a smaller version of the same charts, maybe will image better on single monitors.

Correlations -- from Bloomberg

Check these correlations.

Eur seems to be getting further away from correlating with S&P.
GBP is highly correlated.

Maybe I can workup a chart of PRS 133 on the GBP.  

It is more tightly correlation to S&P, British bank are fairly highly exposed to the Euro.   So fireworks on the Euro stage should show up in the GBP anyway.

Chart is from Bloomberg

Theory---it doesn't matter, until it does.   Euroland is in deep trouble.   They will be the first to blow up financially.

S&P has some tight Bollingers today, and is traingulating, for a big move.   Direction unknown.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Basic physics of density

The so called static kill with do the same thing as the prior failed top kill.   One difference, the oil is not flowing now, so there will be less pressure needed.

But the heavy drilling "mud" a manufactured Mud, not real mud, well...why won't it continue it's downward path into the reservior?  The smallest pipe in the casing assembly is almost 10".   With light oil below and heavy drilling mud above, why would the mud not continue to flow down into the reservoir, allowing the oil to "float" upward.

Concrete, sure...ill believe that will seal it.    Mud as a seal?   Sounds very odd.

And the relief wells are already there....just feet away.    So why this riskier operation that could blow out the well structure itself?    Because they want the oil.

Watch the spin, after the static "kill" works, there will be some more spin on using the relief wells as real wells, and not as kill spots.   Not that I disagree with this, however, the audacity of the continued lies and misreporting is what I rant about.

Wiki infor on well kills

SPG, the absurdity never ends it seems

Gap up over the channel line.  Do you think that markets have to "make sense?", think about the Tech bubble of 1999.   Commercial propoerty is hosed, but that doesn't mean the stocks can't run for the sky.   However, one temperment to this bullishness....this could be a bronto throw off...what i mean is a silly stop catching rally up, followed by the big down.  Arch Crawford has today as a big turn day, assumed to be down, and that barberous relic of Astro astronomy has been getting mainstream media coverage.   The point is?   Could be that he is getting gamed just like EWI gets gamed.

The Euro pegged off a long lasting PRS 133 channel line.   This is a very strong signal, however, it looks like it is consolidating, possibly for another run at the line.   That would be bullish for equities assuming the correlation holds.

ES and Gov annoyed at lack of lending

See below, the basis for the Fib's shown in the upper chart.   It is the highest high to lowest low on the ES.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Getting back to the basics, and if you are a long term investor, think of these things.

This family may be right, they may wish to avoid transferring debt to their offspring.

But the overall picture of selling farmland is wrong, but the timing maybe OK.   Buying things that can produce items that people actually need (unlike a large screen TV in the garage) is a good long term decision.   Buying farmland with access to water is a good thing in my humble opinion.

Running a farm is hard, hard work.   at 65YO these people may have the right's too hard for them.   And if they are in debt, why pass this on, just shut down, bankruptcy, whatever.

Seriously, I am thinking of buying land somewhere, maybe New Zealand, and getting ready to start a truly sustainable existence.

On that note, I doubled my PV system output last night with an electric tie-in.  The system run at 400 V DC and you can't shut it off except by tarping the entire array or finding all 8 connectors which are buried under a grid of panels.

The easy way is to do it at night.    Under a cloudy half moon, the system was producing 11 Volts at 9PM.    Beats the heck out of 400 VDC which will mess with you!

Rainy today, but still producing more power than using, even with 5 computers up and aircon on.

I like it!