Friday, July 24, 2009

SPX Wide View Intersting Lines

Short term weakness, intermediate term is up

All the likely Fib numbers or likely wave target are to the upside. Regardless of how manipulated the market was in getting to this stage, at this point--here it is. I see resistance on the Nas at 1957 and therefore kept with 2X shorts from yesterday afternoon in place, with stops proportional to Nas at 1957.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

ES the final channel lne, Knock knock knock boom

As mentioned yesterday, the ES was knocking on the 75% channel line repeatedly and somethimes they blast through. The more knocks the bigger the blast.

Now it looks like it has bounced down from the last channel line. Time will tell. Of course the ES short futures entered at 4A EST this morning hit their stops for a breakeven.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Thoughts for Thursday. The market will turn down quick or it wont. In other words, short bets will pay off starting tomorrow, or a break up can happen. I expect a stop clearing run....and then a pretty big down....the market makers have made this cannot hold tight stops or just get blatantly whipped out of positions. It's obvious. In other words....the ones who created the financial system blowing up and now forcing investors/traders to have invreased risk with looser stops.

I have executed my trading plan 100% perfectly up till right now, I traded nothing this whole week, while these shenangians wear out everyone. I see it and hear it.

I shorted ES at 953 at 4AM EST.

Some Headlines

The head and shoulders line appears to be strong

Even I am getting sick of saying head and shoulders, but until it does the big dirt nap, I must consider it in play.

I need to add this: when a line is obviously a line in the sand and it is tested repeatedly, it will either be rejected strongly or broken strongly. I have seen lines be tested up to 7 times. If there are any bears out there that haven't caved in, on the break of this line, you sure better think about it. Until this line breaks by a significant amount (not a fake break) I am holding short. God save you if you do as I do.

Another note. I rebooted my main computer last night, shortly after the eclipse passed. It wouldn't even bring up the infamous BSOD, it went directly to a CHKDSK which continuously found file structure faults, without stop. Had to use Norton 14 recovery disk and re-image to a third normal form from 2007 in order to get anything to work. Eclipse effect? Who knows. Perfectly bad timing? Maybe not. Perhaps doing nothing on the trading front was the best possible move.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

ROST end of day trade to hold overnight

Ho-Sto and H&S

Crystal ball? Still fuzzy. I executed my trading plan yesterday. I did nothing.

This chart speaks for itself, although I could see that shoulder getting tested again, maybe Wednesday.

Bernanke is testifying in DC today and tomorrow. He is getting better at spin, but will this be a sell the news, as "real" earning reports also come out? Time will tell. Get your lists and charts ready. I cleaned up my watchlists yesterday and like a large clean desktop, it is a beautiful thing.

Monday, July 20, 2009

ES still has the H&S pattern intact

SPX "We knew thee well", Wait, check is there a pulse???

Stochastics have been so high so long. I am going to start removing the term "overbought" and "oversold" from my vocabulary. Like so many other "confidence" words in the financial industry that effectively get people to put their capital at risk, this is one of the offenders. Neuro-linguistics is a strange thing. The connection between our mind and the words that we use is a strong and complicated one. Using the wrong words can be hurtful to our proper interaction with the markets. So from here on out it shall be "Lo-Sto" or "Hi-Sto".

OK, the old head and shoulders is on the table and we are checking for a pulse. It's been Hi-Sto so long we kind of think that a pullback will give the H&S at least the appearance of a pulse for a while. But honestly, we don't think he is going to pull through.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

When do we throw the ol' H&S under the bus?

I wrote this in response a blog question on another blog, in response to "when would practitioners consider the H&S officially dead". To clarify...I am not suggesting to go out and get crazy short, just that that rally was contrived and there may not be widespread support behind it.

I don't think we can throw this under the bus quite yet. Normally if the price closes 5% below the neck and THEN retraces significantly above the would be for the most part busted, however even then patterns retrace and then "perform" by dropping significantly below the neckline. In some rare cases the retrace goes above the right shoulder and even above the head and yet returns down for a significant move down below the neckline. Less than 1% so lets be realistic.

However, my take is that this complex head and shoulders wants to have more symmetry than a normal head and shoulder, they are likely to have more symmetry, and therefore having just on shoulder on the right side would be unusual. What I am proposing is that the neckline was never officially broken and this is just another shoulder.

I was watching futures action and it was blatantly obvious that huge amounts of futures were being purchased at strategic time to goose the market, thus adding the short covering fuel to the fire. This was especially true to achieve the first close above 900.

I guess that "success" could breed upon success and this market manipulation could result in a long term uptrend based upon increased confidence, based upon manipulation. But I think there is a good chance it will fail. Put holders were crushed during expiry week, if they had July puts. That itself was a major victory for the market makers. Would it make sense they were willing to commit several 10's of billion to pump the entire market by pumping the indices and a few high flyers, while selling July puts and selling August calls. Time will tell.

Boatload O' Charts--Compare to the downloadable Excel in other post

These charts are mostly from the TK ticker list, beefed up by yours truly and posted in previous post in Excel downloadable format. Let me know if you like that format.

AMZN, and APD just look like double top to me, I don't see that much more. Betting against Amazon is kind of scary....the last 4 months have had bullishness, so maybe people are buying things on Amazon. I know this is weak analysis, what I am saying is that I just don't want to play this one.

NEU is interesting, as it could be bearish or bullish. There is a big IHS, at Fib support or resistance...could be a big long or short. I may set orders in both directions and see what hits.

Well known Contra-Indicator profit decline?

This much maligned publisher, often accused of being a near perfect contra-indicator in term of business news and cycles, looks like it has continued decreasing revenue.

If you read the story below, doesn't this seem like a tell that upcoming earning report should be even worse, compared to a 22% first quarter drop in April.

We have an interesting readership at Hawaii Trading. Perhaps a bit irreverent compared to some of the big Blogs, and of course none of this is ever to be taken as trade advice, but the attached visitor chart is interesting. Now what is up with Africa, in 1.5 months of blogging, I never seen a single hit from Africa. In 16,000 page views, NOT A SINGLE HIT from Africa. Is it a language thing, a computer thing, or a money thing?