Saturday, June 27, 2009

S&P 500 = $200 price target on poll, rational.

Question was asked on why 200 was even picked as an S&P 500 target.

End of week result of Poll on S&P Downside Targets.

880 -- 35%
820 -- 32%
600 -- 26%
200 -- 11%

What is interesting is that 880 was far in the lead near the beginning, but as the market melted up, the lower target filled in, with 880 hardly getting any additional votes. Hmmmm.....scientific, hell no, interesting, hell yes.

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alphahorn 4 hours ago

why the huge gap between 600 and 200 i think most believe 450-550 is where we're heading

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steveo77 0 minutes ago

Thats kind of to flag the super bears. I expect the S&P 500 operating earnings to be as low as $20 this whole year.

Considering reversion beyond the mean, lets say a P/E ratio of 10 is low, 15 normal, 20 high, that we will shoot to the downside, to the P/E of 10. 10 x 20 = $200. This would be poor financial results and very negative sentiment combined.

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