Sunday, November 29, 2009

Heatmap, 5, 10, 20 all say bearish. This doesnt happen often.

Keep in mind, I am thinking a sharp drop, then a stroll or rocket up to 1120 area.

The heat map is a little confusing by itself.   "Now" is at the far bottom.  I am using 5 day simple moving average, 10 SMA, and 20 SMA.

I posted this reply to a question:

"Sorry doodlebug, that heat map is a proprietary thing with all kind of custom settings on custom data.

I use it as follows
Light Red I scale into shorts
Deeper red I add shorts
Tan means I scale out of shorts or longs (nuetral)
Light blue I scale into longs (or hedge shorts with futures)
Deeper blue I add longs or long hedges -- but seriously, if its deep blue...I would rather be out of all shorts and heavy long."

The 5 and 10 day have returned 58% and 52% annually during trending markets.  Lately the 5 has been OK and the 10 has been whipsawed pretty badly as we top out through this 29 calendar day cycle.

I may muster a 15 day cycle since that would pretty clearly match the half cycle period that seems predominant right now.  Check next week.  I usually superimpose this on a frankensteinian conglomeration of 4 or 5 charts melded into one, and that takes alot of time. 

I am quite good at Excel charts, but have not come up with a way to automate the process and presentation.