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That said, this market action is obviously either a pause before a further climb or a top. That is pretty basic, no great wisdom. But there-in lies a good point--don't overcomplicate the market.
The market is tricky, but the more you read does not necessarily help you understand or predict the market. You could spend all weekend reading blogs in the hope of gaining insight, but that extreme amount of "research" could actually be detrimental to a clear view. You are probably better off going to get some exercise, go on a 4 mile hike through the woods -- clear your head. And think about staying healthy, because if Primary 3 plays out, there is going to be some serious SHTF, and your overall health and energy levels are going to be factors in how well you and your family get through things.
The fundamentals of the world financial situation are horrific. Mortgage rate resets on large pools of mortgages are entering a phase of big increases. None of the bank and risky asset problems have been solved...at all. Government just transferred money from tax payers to special interests, without solving any problems.
That said, we made a "Top Call" on November 21th, review the Chart of Charts from that era.
S&P closed at 1106 on November 19th. Now it is at 1102 courtesy of that final ramp job to create "Min Pain" to option writers at expiry.
Distribution continues, from strong hands to weak hands. Interesting how Calpers just now made it against the rules for it's investment decision makers to receive gifts from "Investment Advisors" aka Salespeople.
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Insightful and Useful Comment!