In order for a good size bounce from ES 1013 which was touched in after hours, to say 1080 (an Atilla estimate), The Euro would be forced to rally. Unless they just happen to decouple at this point, which has a low probability.
The Euro does not look ready to rally IMHO, in fact it looks like it need to finish a 5 down, and that could easily take the S&P to the 800's range by say Aug/Sep.
Others have posted analogies to 1987, and the fractals are AMAZINGLY similar to right now, predicting a crash within days.
"They" have used 3 day weekends for big market move, ALOT in the last 2 years. There is no honor among those particular thieves. It is all about taking all the money using whatever they can muster, and regardless of consequences.
However, this moon cycle does look like a bottom would be more appropriate than a continued decline. This market is tricky.
well, today the euro went gonzo. the buck went inverse gonzo (of course). and, just to piss everyone off, the market did not go gonzo...yet.
ReplyDeleteI think the treasuries need more than a day's drop, especially in such a wimpy wave 1 kind of drop. so I'm expecting that to happen very very soon, which should mean a rally in stocks and a continued rally in the euro MAYBE. the dollar does need a rest here before taking off again, doncha think?
hasta la pasta....
I guess my "low probability of decoupling" was 100% prescient, in the wrong way! Ouch. Closed all shorts early morning, and OK with just watching for a while, but will put in order to sell below 1004.5, just to pick a number kind of far away 1008, stop above 1008, say 1009.5.
ReplyDeletethat's a nice, simple, and low risk idea, steve. btw, in rereading my comment, I realized the bit about treasuries was unclear. what I meant was, the move down so far is a small wave 1, nothing too dramatic, hence wimpy. I'm looking for a C or 3 down that will give us a good three full points or more on the short side.
ReplyDeleteOK, so treasuries for dummies....
ReplyDeletehonestly I haven't followed bond and bills that much lately, mostly because I think this market is a crispy critter, and the only task remaining is how to trade the endless ramp jobs.
So treasuries in a c or 3 would mean what in your opinion?
TBT has been a real bear, glad I got out of that months back.