Sunday, April 10, 2011

Fear Factor

Fear Factor -- This is our "Brand Name" Ratio, measures Fear....with a downward movement indicating increasing fear--thus is moves the same as the US Indices, it often leads. However, the key trade I have used is that when the indices stagnate, consolidate, or dead cat bounce, and FF keep going down, then I expect the indices to follow the way. If FF Does a V bounce off a bottom channel line, I don't maintain bearish positions. Too bad I can't apply the PRS 133/177 since I can only do ratio charts on Prophet charts and not on TOS which is the easiest platform to do PRS channels on.

The Euro just popped the 78 Big Fibonacci line. In the last year or two, waves often retrace to the 78. This prevents most people from being able to make money, since if you set your stop above the 61 or 78, you get stopped out. Anyone trying to make fundamental sense of the Portugal and Euro situation would assume that the Euro would be getting crushed due to printing. Maybe popping the 78 was enough crushing.

It is possible we get a silver kickdown from the PRS 133, but silver has gone parabolic in the past and may need to draw in even more people before a huge turn down....enough of a crush to get everyone who jumped on that train to get off the train at a loss, say silver to below 20.

Note the "Egg" Launch on Cable (GBP/USD Currency). Just when it looks like it is going to fall off the edge of the Egg....a massive launch upward. This truly is a pattern, be it said that Hawaii Trading claims the Egg Launch as proprietary.

 Soybeans -- just an interesting adherence to PRS channel lines.    Not playing this one, futures are quite illiquid, which means they will hunt your stops at night.   Could be a kickdown, could be a bull flag.   How far can the New World Order crush the food supply without generating massive social upheaval?   I won't place my money betting on that.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!