Comet Honda? Causing Earthquakes?

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=45P%2FHonda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova;orb=1;cov...

Chart is from NASA

Historical Highlights

·  The first parabolic orbit was calculated by L. E. Cunningham using positions obtained up to December 9. He determined the perihelion date as 1948 November 20.40. The first elliptical orbit was calculated by A. Schmitt, using positions from December 8, 11, and 14. The result was a perihelion date of November 18.49 and a period of 7.10 years. Schmitt noted, "The elements present a certain similarity to Biela's comet." Additional elliptical orbits were calculated by Schmitt, Cunningham, and G. Merton. These indicated a perihelion date of November 17.7–17.8 and a period of 5.00–5.31 years. Following observations at later apparitions, the perihelion date proved to have been November 17.72 and the period was 5.22 years. The comet passed 0.08 AU from Jupiter on 1935 August 15, at which time it was put into its discovery orbit.

·  The appearance of 1974-1975 was the comet's best return since it had been discovered. It had passed perihelion on 1974 December 28 and then passed closest to Earth on 1975 February 4 (0.2344 AU). The result was that it reached a maximum magnitude of 7.5 in January.

·  The comet's best appearance to date came during the apparition of 1995-1996. This was the comet's 8th appearance since its discovery. It had passed closest to the sun on 1995 December 25 (0.5319 AU) and passed closest to Earth on 1996 February 6 (0.1702 AU). During the last few days of December the total magnitude was estimated as around 6.5. The comet entered the sun's glare thereafter, and passed only 4.3 degrees from the sun on January 15. It was photographed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from January 9 to 18. The comet was about magnitude 7.5 when it emerged from the sun's glare in late January. The comet appeared to have faded rapidly during March. It had faded to magnitude 9 by the 11th and was just slightly brighter than 11 on the 16th.

·  Close approaches to planets: This comet made 11 close approaches to Earth and 2 close approaches to Jupiter during the 20th century. It makes 1 close approach to Venus, 5 close approaches to Earth, and 1 close approach to Jupiter during the first half of the 21st century. (From the orbital work of Kazuo Kinoshita)

• 0.62 AU from Earth on 1900 July 31

No Big Earthquake

·         ·  1901 12 18 - Ayvalik, Turkey (Ottoman Empire) - M 5.9

·         ·  1901 05 17 - Near Portsmouth, Ohio - M 4.2

·         ·  1901 03 03 - Parkfield, California - M 6.4

·         ·  1900 10 09 - Kodiak Island, Alaska - M 7.7

·         ·  1899 12 25 - San Jacinto, California - M 6.7 Fatalities 6

·         ·  1899 09 23 - Copper River delta, Alaska - M 7.0

·         ·  1899 09 20 - Menderes Valley, Turkey - M 6.9 Fatalities 1,100

• 0.64 AU from Earth on 1906 March 20

Big Earthquake 4 days prior

·         ·  1907 01 14 - Kingston, Jamaica - M 6.5 Fatalities 1,000

·         ·  1906 11 15 - Socorro area, New Mexico - Intensity VII

·         ·  1906 08 17 - Valparaiso, Chile - M 8.2 Fatalities 3,882

·         ·  1906 07 12 - Socorro area, New Mexico - Intensity VII

·         ·  1906 04 18 - San Francisco, California - M 7.8 Fatalities 3000

·         ·  1906 03 16 - Chia-i, Taiwan - M 6.8 Fatalities 1,250

·         ·  1906 01 31 - Off the Coast of Esmeraldas, Ecuador - M 8.8 Fatalities 1,000

·         ·  1905 09 08 - Calabria, Italy - M 7.9 Fatalities 557

·         ·  1905 07 09 - Mongolia - M 8.4

• 0.26 AU from Earth on 1917 January 16

Bali Earthquake, 4 days after the Honda Comet

·         ·  1917 07 30 - Yunnan, China - M 7.5 Fatalities 1,800

·         ·  1917 01 20 - Bali, Indonesia Fatalities 1,500

·         ·  1916 10 18 - Irondale, Alabama - M 5.1

·         ·  1916 02 21 - Waynesville, North Carolina - M 5.2

• 0.35 AU from Earth on 1927 November 24

Big Earthquake 1 week after Honda comet

•  

·         ·  1929 05 01 - Koppeh Dagh, Iran (Persia) - M 7.4 Fatalities 3,800

·         ·  1929 03 07 - Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 7.8

·         ·  1928 12 01 - Talca, Chile - M 7.6 Fatalities 225

·         ·  1928 11 03 - Eastern Tennessee - M 4.5

·         ·  1927 11 04 - Lompoc, California - M 7.1

·         ·  1927 10 24 - Southeast Alaska - M 7.1

•  
• 0.08 AU from Jupiter on 1935 August 15
• decreased perihelion distance from 0.64 AU to 0.58 AU
• decreased orbital period from 5.53 to 5.27 years
•  
• 0.83 AU from Earth on 1943 July 12

NO Big Earthquakes

·         ·  1944 07 12 - Sheep Mountain, Idaho - M 6.1

·         ·  1944 02 01 - Gerede, Turkey - M 7.4 Fatalities 2,790

·         ·  1944 01 15 - San Juan, Argentina - M 7.4 Fatalities 8,000

·         ·  1943 11 26 - Ladik, Turkey - M 7.6 Fatalities 4,000

·         ·  1943 11 03 - Skwenta, Alaska - M 7.4

·         ·  1943 09 10 - Tottori, Japan - M 7.4 Fatalities 1,190

·         ·  1943 04 06 - Illapel - Salamanca, Chile - M 8.2 Fatalities 25

·         ·  1943 01 30 - Yanaoca, Peru Fatalities 200

·         ·  1942 12 20 - Erbaa, Turkey - M 7.3 Fatalities 1,100

·         ·  1942 11 26 - Turkey - M 7.6 Fatalities 4,000

• 0.43 AU from Earth on 1948 November 16 (contributed to comet's discovery)

·         Big Earthquake 6 days prior

·          

·         ·  1947 05 06 - Wisconsin

·         ·  1946 12 20 - Nankaido, Japan - M 8.1 Fatalities 1,330

·         ·  1946 11 10 - Ancash, Peru - M 7.3 Fatalities 1,400

·         ·  1946 08 08 - Samana, Dominican Republic - M 7.6

·         ·  1946 08 04 - Samana, Dominican Republic - M 8.0 Fatalities 100

·         ·  1946 06 23 - Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada - M 7.3

·         ·  1946 05 31 - Ustukran, Turkey - M 5.9 Fatalities 1,300

·         ·  1946 04 01 - Unimak Island, Alaska - M 8.1 Fatalities 165

• 0.59 AU from Earth on 1954 March 15

Big Earthquake 2 weeks after Honda Comet

•  

·         ·  1955 10 24 - Concord, California - M 5.4 Fatalities 1

·         ·  1954 12 21 - Eureka, California - M 6.5 Fatalities 1

·         ·  1954 12 16 - Dixie Valley, Nevada - M 6.8

·         ·  1954 12 16 - Fairview Peak, Nevada - M 7.1

·         ·  1954 09 09 - Orleansville, Algeria - M 6.8 Fatalities 1,250

·         ·  1954 08 24 - Stillwater, Nevada - M 6.8

·         ·  1954 07 06 - Fallon-Stillwater area, Nevada - M 6.6

·         ·  1954 04 30 - Greece - M 7.1 Fatalities 31

·         ·  1954 03 29 - Spain - M 7.9

·         ·  1953 12 12 - Tumbes, Peru - M 7.4 Fatalities 7

·         ·  1953 08 12 - Kefallinia, Greece - M 7.1 Fatalities 455

• 0.30 AU from Earth on 1969 August 11

A 5.9 earthquake, smallish, and 2 weeks before.

·         ·  1969 12 25 - Guadeloupe, Leeward Islands - M 7.2

·         ·  1969 11 20 - Southern West Virginia - M 4.5

·         ·  1969 10 02 - Santa Rosa, California - M 5.7 Fatalities 1

·         ·  1969 10 01 - Comas region, Chile - M 6.4 Fatalities 136

·         ·  1969 07 25 - Guangdong, China - M 5.9 Fatalities 3,000

·         ·  1969 03 28 - Alasehir, Turkey - M 6.4 Fatalities 11

·         ·  1969 02 28 - Portugal-Morocco area - M 7.8 Fatalities 13

·          

• 0.23 AU from Earth on 1975 February 5
• Big Earthquakes 3 days prior and 1 day prior
•  

·         ·  1976 03 11 - Newport, Rhode Island - M 3.5

·         ·  1976 02 04 - Guatemala - M 7.5 Fatalities 23,000

·         ·  1975 11 29 - Kalapana, Hawaii - M 7.2 Fatalities 2

·         ·  1975 09 06 - Turkey - M 6.7 Fatalities 2,000

·         ·  1975 08 01 - Oroville, California - M 5.8

·         ·  1975 07 09 - Western Minnesota - M 4.6

·         ·  1975 06 30 - Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming - M 6.1

·         ·  1975 03 02 - Eastern Idaho - M 6.2

·         ·  1975 02 04 - Haicheng, China - M 7.0 Fatalities 2,000

·         ·  1975 02 02 - Near Islands, Alaska - M 7.6

·         ·  1974 12 28 - Northern Pakistan - M 6.2 Fatalities 5,300

·         ·  1974 10 08 - Leeward Islands - M 7.5

·         ·  1974 10 03 - Near the Coast of Central Peru - M 8.1

• 0.11 AU from Jupiter on 1983 March 26
• decreased perihelion distance from 0.58 AU to 0.54 AU
• increased orbital period from 5.28 to 5.30 years
•  
• 0.29 AU from Earth on 1990 August 1
• No big earthquakes

·  1991 04 22 - Costa Rica - M 7.6 Fatalities 47

·  1990 07 16 - Luzon, Philippine Islands - M 7.7 Fatalities 1,621

·  1990 06 20 - Western Iran - M 7.4 Fatalities 50,000

• ·  1990 01 13 - Maryland - M 2.5
•  
• 0.17 AU from Earth on 1996 February 4
• No big earthquakes

·  1997 05 21 - Jabalpur, India - M 5.8 Fatalities 38

·  1997 05 10 - Northern Iran - M 7.3 Fatalities 1,567

·  1996 06 10 - Andreanof Islands, Alaska - M 7.9

·  1995 06 15 - Greece - M 6.5 Fatalities 26

·  1995 05 27 - Sakhalin Island - M 7.1 Fatalities 1,989

·  1995 05 13 - Greece - M 6.6

·  1995 02 03 - Wyoming - M 5.3 Fatalities 1

• 0.09 AU from Venus on 2006 June 4

• 0.06 AU from Earth on 2011 August 15

Big Earthquake 6.8, Japan, Honshu (Fukushima)

_________________________________________________The future

• 0.09 AU from Earth on 2017 February 11
• 0.57 AU from Earth on 2027 July 20
• 0.17 AU from Jupiter on 2030 August 3
• increased perihelion distance from 0.56 AU to 0.63 AU
• increased orbital period from 5.34 to 5.52 years
• 0.37 AU from Earth on 2032 November 6
• 0.39 AU from Earth on 2043 November 21