Thursday, November 15, 2012

Expiry shenanigans, McC, and Cable

I haven't been following expiry as closely as I used to and that is a mistake.  For some reason, options are very important in moving the market.   The real players sell options for "income"

The big moves on options expiry week come mostly on Monday and Tuesday prior to the expiry, sometime Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday are usually not big movers overall, although there may be what I can some "expeditions" which are drives to pop stops, scare people into closing option positions.

Stopped out on long ES, and went short.    Now closing short and waiting for a clear turn to the upside. 

After expiry, there is often some "bounce back" which would obviously be bounce up

vix is a little high, so buying calls might have to pay a premium.

Check this chart on the McClennnan,  the green horizontal line is "oversold" and we just entered that territory.    Every single time we have hit this low, since 2010 on this chart, there was a bounce of at least 3% and maybe up to 15%.

Matt updates this chart on Breakpoint Trades, which is real convenient.

Cable, in the lower chart, has a near perfect declining wedge which should mean a bounce up, and Cable likely to move same direction as equities....its a push me pull you type of critter.$NYMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p55118144387&a=191690964

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Insightful and Useful Comment!