Friday, December 7, 2012

Silver from BPT and TNX/VIX an old favorite


  1. another bullish indicator is when the EMA crosses higher than the SMA for the same time period. this bullish signal has also come as silver has broken out of its descending triangle.

  2. Thanks, I am bullish on the PMs

    But then again, I was bullish on natgas 2 years ago LOL

  3. the question remains: stack physical or trade paper? the ratio between PSLV (physical) and SLV (paper) has been anything but constant. but RSI and MACD are showing positive divergences to price. physical has underperformed recently, but may be readying a rebound.

  4. Never knew that PSLV existed is a really an ETF?. Please provide your "take" on what PSLV is and how it is relevant

  5. PSLV is a silver trust started by Eric Sprott. Sprott is a physical bull who is concerned that data of silver (and gold) holdings is misstated and hiding a pressing shortage of deliverable silver for investment and industry.

    "But if you buy shares in a gold ETF like the GLD, for example, which is the largest gold ETF in the world, do you actually own gold? The answer is no."
    more details in the "about" tab on the Youtube page:
    from the prospectus: "Gold held in the Trust's unallocated gold account and any Authorized
    Participant's unallocated gold account will not be segregated from the
    Custodian's assets. If the Custodian becomes insolvent, its assets may
    not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized

    it is strongly suspected that SLV does not hold the silver they have promised, nor will they deliver it on demand.
    apparently, paying storage fees does not entitle you to any ownership of the item you have been paying to store!?

    Does iShares SLV ETF Really Hold Silver?

    Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

    hence, the price action of physical diverges from SLV

    physical silver market decoupling from SLV?

    however, since the data is spotty and disputed (and appears to be guarded by secrecy) the amount of premium that should be paid to own physical is uncertain. like any uncertain quantity or price in the free market, it is subject to waves of social mood alternating between fear and complacency. and it is to track the waves of social mood and resultant price changes that technical analysis is studied.

    for my take, SLV and GLD are the most prominent because they are connected to the largest global banks and exchanges (which are from time to time exposed for frauds and irregularities, yet rarely liquidated for their transgressions). Niche players like PSLV are much smaller and less known, but they are founded and run by true believers rather than generalist financial professionals.

    The true believers are the more entrepreneurial small businessmen who must cultivate a solid reputation based on outstanding service rather than prominence and PR/name recognition. The megabanks and the exchanges have disappointed us but remain viable with their incestuous relationships with regulators. Maybe we should demand the integrity and service of niche providers before they are swallowed up by competitors who cater to the lowest common denominator.

    so it would seem that PSLV is for the committed who recognize the importance of allocation and ownership ... and SLV is for the Suzie Ormans of the world who think that paper silver and paper gold and paper stock certificates actually amount to "diversification" (de-worse-ification) and think that saving on storage fees is a better deal than reliable ownership and delivery.


Insightful and Useful Comment!